AWS added a new model tonight, reshuffling the rankings of the three major cloud providers.
If you hold any of Microsoft, Amazon, or Google, there was an event tonight that changed the relative positions of the three companies—but the market has only reacted half of it.
On April 27th Eastern Time, Microsoft and OpenAI rewrote their cooperation agreement: OpenAI can put its models on AWS (Amazon Web Services) and Google Cloud for sale within weeks, no longer exclusively on Azure (Microsoft Cloud). Microsoft's stock fell nearly 3% intraday, Alphabet rose 1.5%, and Amazon was basically flat.
What it means for you: If you hold Microsoft, you need to recalculate its moat; if you hold Amazon or Google, you have an additional stream of incremental revenue tonight; if you are allocating overall to the AI sector, the logic of "leading company exclusivity premium" should be weighted down.
First, let's clarify what happened tonight.
Microsoft started investing in OpenAI in 2019, investing over $13 billion over seven years, acquiring about 27% of OpenAI's equity and "exclusive" usage rights. This exclusivity meant—other clouds (Amazon AWS, Google Cloud) wanting to offer GPT to customers had to take a detour.
Tonight, this exclusivity is officially void. Specifically, three things changed:
1. The IP license is extended to 2032, but changed to non-exclusive. OpenAI models will appear on AWS Bedrock within weeks.
(Bedrock = Amazon Cloud's AI model marketplace, where customers can call various models on one platform)
2. The AGI clause was deleted. The original contract stated—once OpenAI achieves AGI, the relationship must be rewritten. This clause, signed from 2019 until today, was a ticking time bomb hanging over Microsoft for seven years. It was defused tonight.
3. Revenue sharing was adjusted. Microsoft will no longer pay a share to OpenAI. OpenAI's revenue share to Microsoft is retained until 2030, but a total cap was added.
Barclays' analysts directly said today that this is positive for Microsoft—OpenAI's $1 trillion data center commitment, which Microsoft as the exclusive partner would have had to co-fund, is now loosened.
Why this change happened
Microsoft is not passively taking a hit. OpenAI is not just seeking freedom—behind it lies the reality that the enterprise market is already decided.
Anthropic (the company behind Claude) announced on April 7th this year that its ARR reached $30 billion, exceeding the $25 billion disclosed by OpenAI in February.
1,000 enterprises spend over $1 million annually on Claude, doubling within two months. Microsoft's own Copilot has already integrated Claude—OpenAI's biggest financier is using a competitor's model.
Two weeks ago, OpenAI's sales head said a blunt truth in an internal memo: "Microsoft's partnership limits our ability to reach enterprise customers." Translated: can't beat Anthropic in the enterprise market, need to try a different channel.
OpenAI's unbinding from Microsoft tonight is essentially a change of strategy after losing in the enterprise market.
Changes in the relative positions of the three clouds
The landscape of the past seven years: Azure had exclusive OpenAI, AWS had exclusive Anthropic, Google Cloud had no exclusivity but subsidized its own Gemini.
After tonight: AWS Bedrock supplies both Anthropic and OpenAI. Google Cloud also gets OpenAI access rights. Azure's "exclusive" label disappears, but retains its main partner status (OpenAI's new products default to Azure first).
What it means for you: Microsoft's market cap is about $4 trillion, the implied "Azure AI gateway" premium in its valuation needs a discount, but because Microsoft also saves on part of OpenAI's capital expenditure, this is a negative item + positive item offsetting each other; Amazon gains an additional AI revenue stream, Bedrock's growth rate will be a key focus in the Q3 earnings report; Alphabet is the only one among the three that benefits purely incrementally—its customers can now get both Anthropic and OpenAI.
Why this is more important than OpenAI's earnings miss
The same night, The Wall Street Journal had another exclusive—OpenAI missed its self-set "1 billion ChatGPT weekly active users by the end of 2025" target, subscription churn increased, and the CFO is worried about not being able to afford future data center contracts.
An earnings miss looks more glaring. But it only affects OpenAI alone.
The exclusive unlocking event affects the entire AI industry chain's pricing of the "leading company uniqueness premium."
Last month (4/20), I wrote about Marvell—Google bypassing Broadcom to have Marvell make anti-NVIDIA TPU chips, meaning even NVIDIA can't hold back customer multi-sourcing. Tonight's event is an extension of the same story—OpenAI itself no longer believes in exclusivity. The chip layer and the model layer are moving in the same direction.
How it corresponds to your holdings
If you hold Microsoft: Tonight's -3% was mostly retraced, the market has already priced in the loss of exclusivity. But the "Azure as the only AI gateway" story can no longer be used. When recalculating valuation, strip out this premium, add back the "saved $1 trillion data center capital expenditure share." The two offset, not a major disaster.
If you hold Amazon: Bedrock will run both Anthropic and OpenAI in a few weeks—for the first time in seven years. Watch the AI incremental revenue in AWS's Q3 earnings report. This is newly appearing cash flow.
If you hold NVIDIA or the semiconductor sector: Tonight's event doesn't affect its near-term performance, but its current $5.2 trillion valuation includes a significant portion of "AI leading company uniqueness" premium. The pricing basis for this premium is loosening. It may not fall in the short term, but the long-term valuation ceiling needs to be recalculated.
If you hold Hong Kong AI new shares like Xizhi Technology: The +380% sentiment on the first day was feeding on the "next exclusive" premium. The next exclusive simply doesn't exist—there will be a pullback after the sentiment fades.
My view
No position changes tonight. Tomorrow, OpenAI and Amazon are holding an event in San Francisco, which will disclose specific pricing for Bedrock's launch and details of the Frontier enterprise platform. Judge after watching that event.
I didn't touch Microsoft. Those who bought back MSFT today, tell me which moat you're calculating now.
$Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US)
The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.
