U.S. Stocks Today

The three major indices edged up slightly in early trading, with the S&P and Dow up about 0.2%, and the Nasdaq was also similar, with no major volatility. It's in a "data digestion" mode.

Why is the PCE data so important?

The highlight today is the release of the PCE inflation data:

• Overall PCE year-on-year increase of 3.8%, higher than last month's 3.5%, but in line with expectations, so the market wasn't spooked[wsj]

• Core PCE month-on-month increase of 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%. This is the key reason the market didn't fall sharply today.

• Simply put: the annual rate is rising, but the monthly rate is slowing down — two conflicting signals, the market doesn't know how to react, so it's just moving sideways.

U.S.-Iran situation is a hidden positive

Potential U.S.-Iran deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to plunge, indirectly easing inflation pressure. This is another reason the market didn't fall sharply today.

Last week's five trading days were strong

The Nasdaq rose 1.2% last Tuesday to hit a record high, the S&P rose 0.6%. Today's consolidation at high levels is normal.

—

In summary: The market today is "not bad but not exciting either." The monthly PCE data was slightly better than expected, coupled with falling oil prices, supporting the market. However, annual inflation is still rising, and the risk of Fed rate hikes remains. For $Tesla(TSLA.US) and $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), continue to watch AI momentum in the short term, but be cautious about interest rate direction in the medium term. From Ai

Still bullish on memory and optical communication $Micron Tech(MU.US)$Lumentum(LITE.US)$POET Tech(POET.US)$Maxlinear(MXL.US)

$Nokia Oyj(NOK.US)$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM.US)