$Nokia Oyj(NOK.US) A simple analysis of NOK. Yesterday, the entire sector was down, and this one couldn't escape. No way around it. The short-term trend is already in an oversold stage. Those with confidence and patience can consider gradually building positions. The night market and after-hours performance over the past few days have shown gains, indicating that there is capital trying to support it below. However, there have been no good news recently, no real, substantial orders, just some meaningless verbal cooperation. Neither the market nor capital recognizes it, so it can't rise. Plus, the call wall is very thick, so it's been oscillating repeatedly. As I said at the beginning, it's already oversold, so for now, I see a rebound, not a reversal. Cutting losses now is easy to cut at the floor.

So, analyzing from the call wall perspective, the call wall is really one of the thickest I've seen. This week, it's directly stuck below 13.5. For us retail investors who bought one-way upward calls, our opponent isn't the market maker, but those players selling options to collect premiums (probably institutions). As long as the call wall remains, this situation will keep recurring. Without positive catalysts or significant external capital inflows, it's impossible for it to rise. It shakes out impatient and unconfident retail investors because the time cost is high. Everything else is soaring, everyone gets envious, FOMO kicks in, and they just cut and sell, right?

The call wall has both advantages and disadvantages. After talking about the disadvantages, let's analyze the advantages. Gamma squeeze, but achieving this isn't easy; it requires orders and positive news. I don't see any for now. The positive catalyst I'm sure about is the earnings report on July 23rd, which will need focused analysis then.

This is a nuclear bomb-level positive catalyst (personal opinion). Only this level of catalyst can break through the call wall. The earnings report might reveal real, substantial cooperation orders worth billions of dollars with someone, or someone taking a stake, significant upward revision of future revenue guidance, stock buybacks, etc.

Currently, market expectations for Nokia are generally not high. This "low expectation" itself is an advantage—just a little bit of evidence exceeding expectations could lead to significant stock price elasticity. Looking at the share distribution and capital inflows, the downside space isn't large. With the overall market situation still okay, 13 is basically the bottom. Moreover, with huge block orders entering significantly, and the stock price falling like this, capital is actually flowing in. Continue to wait patiently. If the earnings report isn't good enough or management's outlook isn't high, then I might also retreat (but that's probably unlikely, after all, executives are also trapped at high levels. No news, no confidence, yet dare to buy a million dollars worth of stock at 15.8?)