Rate Of Return
Total Assets06.23 Xiaomi rose slightly, approaching 23. Some observations and thoughts.
Xiaomi's stock finally went up a bit today, but I didn't add to my position. Having endured such a big roller coaster, I'm no longer that rookie who gets anxious at a small drop and excited at a small gain. If the shorts want to play with numbers, I'll play with them to the end. I'll save my bullets for below 20, not releasing the eagle until I see the rabbit.
With a continuous decline, it's impossible to feel good. I don't watch the market much. Today, I relaxed a bit and looked at some stocks I previously followed. A year has brought significant changes, and I have more thoughts.
Figma & Duolingo
Duolingo has fallen from over 300 to just over 100 now; Figma has dropped from 70-80 to a dozen. Putting these two together, it's a case of 'succeed by AI, fail by AI.' One surged due to its AI vertical but couldn't sustain the fall; the other saw its competitiveness eroded by AI's impact.
I think it's quite difficult for these two to recover to their highs because AI development allows the same business to be achieved at lower cost and better quality. AI is continuously weakening the competitiveness and scarcity of their products.
UnitedHealth
It's now over 400, and I really admire Buffett. But back when Xiaomi's stock was soaring, UnitedHealth fell from 300 to 200. The comment section was a scene of devastation. At that time, there were many major issues with the fundamentals, causing the stock price to plummet. From Buffett's perspective, it wasn't a good company. Its current rise is likely Buffett's foresight being realized. There were major problems then, but the decline also brought huge opportunities because, even in such a bad state, the greater certainty was that this business wouldn't stop and would recover. A year has proven him right, but looking at the data and trends during last year, it seemed endless. Perhaps this is the insight to see through cycles.
NVIDIA & Google
During my period of attention, these stocks have doubled. I didn't invest in NVIDIA because I was worried about a Cisco-like scenario repeating. However, it's proven that, at least for now, the AI production side—whether chips, semiconductors, storage, or production processes—has seen a massive surge, leading to very concentrated hype. Perhaps with the arrival of the AI development trend, the principle of 'if you want to get rich, build the road first' is just that simple.
Google exited after the initial antitrust win, but I believe its AI development has indeed exceeded some investors' expectations. In contrast, Microsoft around 450 and some traditional software stocks haven't fared as well.
Xiaomi
Finally, Xiaomi. It was glorious last year and miserable this year, mainly due to memory and consumer cycles, with significant impacts from the overall new energy sector. But compared to Xiaomi when it first started making cars the year before last, besides phones and cars, it now has large models, chips, and smart factories, developing steadily. Its fundamentals are much more complete. Looking at the 15th Five-Year Plan and the recent 'Car Power' initiative, Xiaomi has almost perfectly timed every step of its development. Lei Jun is indeed a good helmsman.
So I think its real push will come in the second half of AI. Currently, it's only indirectly and temporarily under pressure. AI hasn't directly weakened its competitiveness; instead, it has brought growth opportunities in manufacturing and consumption. Looking within limited time, space, and data windows, and on a yearly basis, many things will change significantly.
$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)
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