$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$Micron Tech(MU.US) Mid-term trend bullish!
Despite the recent sharp volatility in SanDisk and Micron Technology, SanDisk's stock price has corrected about 28% from this recent high. So far, the correction is roughly equivalent to, or slightly less than, the adjustments that began in mid-November last year and February this year.
This round of adjustment is also a correction following the nearly 300% surge since the end of March. I've carefully studied recent information from various aspects: the fundamentals haven't changed, and the news flow is mostly positive. Yesterday, Kioxia and SanDisk simultaneously announced sampling of TLC SSDs based on BICS10, which is currently the most advanced technology process in the NAND field and the foundational chip for HBF, leading the industry by 2-4 years.
The U.S. semiconductor sector has seen huge gains in this round, and now it's undergoing a technical correction, requiring valuation compression and deleveraging. The U.S. stock market is a two-sided market with many derivatives. Stock prices must have two-way volatility for market makers to profit. I've mentioned many times in my previous articles that controlling risk is crucial during market valuation compression and deleveraging. If you hold the underlying stock and aren't afraid of short-term fluctuations, it's advisable to hold your position and wait at this level. Those with light positions can add to their holdings on dips. The mid-term trend is bullish!
Wishing everyone good luck and prosperity!
$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$Micron Tech(MU.US)
The medium-term trend is bullish!
Hello to all the friends of SanDisk and Micron Technology!
Today, let's talk about a few very hot topics in AI computing power recently, ignoring GPU and CPU.
1. Regarding AI infrastructure, there are periodic bubble theory discussions, with speculative articles flying everywhere. Essentially, it's a game in the capital market, not a problem with AI development. Have you noticed that these are the last few days before the end of the first half of the year? The Nasdaq has fallen for five consecutive days this week, with huge trading volume in the week after the triple witching day.
2. Regarding storage, price increases are market behavior. The demand for storage technology and production capacity in the AI era is no longer the logic of the consumer electronics era. Don't keep looking back to the past; face the future. Micron Technology's earnings call mentioned that the storage demand for a single humanoid robot is 10 times that of an L2 autonomous vehicle, indicating that physical AI is a blue ocean for storage. Linearly expanding capacity cannot meet the parabolically growing demand. Where is the cycle?
3. Regarding the bottlenecks and technological paths of AI computing power: Everyone knows the bottleneck is not GPU or CPU, but storage and optical transmission. The first storage technology to be implemented is memory HBM, which has already been applied up to HBM4. The second is SanDisk's HBF, followed by SanDisk's abbreviated USB2 patent, which stacks FLASH under the GPU using the unique CBA bonding process of Kioxia and SanDisk to work together with HBM to improve computing efficiency. These are the current ultimate paths for storage. A special reminder: HBM, HBF, and the USB2 patent are not substitution relationships but a division of labor and collaboration. The second is optical-electrical transmission. Existing optical modules will evolve into NPO and CPO in the future. The principle is similar to storage, where optical chips and optical engines get closer and closer to the GPU until co-packaging, improving transmission efficiency and saving energy. This introduces a new demand: advanced packaging. Process is process, packaging is packaging; both will be equally important in the future, but I won't elaborate today.
Summary: The future demand for storage chips is not just for the AI infrastructure needs of major companies and the East. The demand for physical AI is a blue ocean. The demand for computing power platforms drives the advancement of storage technology. Here, SanDisk has already captured the future high ground. So far, the increase in SanDisk's stock price is still supported by its performance valuation. The valuations of SanDisk and Micron Technology are currently the lowest among US tech stocks, with no future component priced in. So, where will SanDisk's stock price rise to in the future? Unleash your imagination; the future is infinitely bright!
///I've attached three charts: the trends of SanDisk and Micron Technology, and the Nasdaq index chart, making it clear at a glance.
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