Fed Meeting Minutes Show Divergent Views

This morning, the first Federal Reserve June meeting minutes under Wash's tenure were released, revealing a clear divergence of views among internal officials: some believe that interest rates are close to neutral and would consider cutting rates if data meets the target; others insist that inflation has not yet met the target and that rates should not be cut within the year.

However, these minutes did not fully stir the market. The U.S. money market has even already priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in December, with the possibility of an earlier hike in October.

Two completely opposite expectations coexist simultaneously. Officials on the policy side are divided, and some trading funds in the secondary market have chosen to bet on rate hikes, creating a strong hedge between bullish and bearish logic. This is the core reason for the market's muted reaction after the release of these minutes.

Overseas macroeconomic news carries extremely high uncertainty. A single set of minutes can only reflect the current views of officials and cannot represent future policy directions. Rashly adjusting positions based on short-term external news can easily amplify trading risks.