US Stock Market Review for July 24
[Semiconductors face renewed selling pressure, the bullish narrative has shifted; NVDA trends upward against the market, INTC target at 80, TSLA breaks support at light speed—is faith in Musk wavering?]
Today's market decline once again focused on semiconductors. The Nasdaq 100 was significantly affected, falling over 1%, while the S&P showed decent performance: 10 out of 11 sectors rose, with only the tech sector declining individually, and over 70% of its constituents rising. Overall market performance remained stable~
SOX
Over the past five trading days, volume decreased during rallies and increased during declines, a typical pattern of rebounding off support levels followed by selling into resistance, rather than a reversal of the downtrend.
The heavy-volume drop today is precisely why I shared on Tuesday's review that "right-side trading can only begin after breaking above 585."
Subsequently, the probability of SOXX dropping to the 450-465 range has increased significantly📉
Current semiconductor narrative:
No one questions the AI trend; everyone knows demand is strong, memory is short, and chip prices are rising. However, this narrative has already driven semiconductor stocks up significantly. The SOX is still up 66.9% year-to-date, meaning this narrative has been fully priced in this year.
For further gains, a new narrative is needed to drive momentum—specifically, big tech must see positive returns on their AI investments, maintain stable cash flows, and thereby promote long-term positive growth in the AI industry.
Otherwise, how can clients be drained dry this year, only to have to sell everything next year just to buy more equipment? 🤣
NVDA
Recent performance has been good. While the SOX fell 17% this month, NVDA rose 3.4%.
Why?
Valuation is cheap! Other semiconductor valuations have already priced in years ahead, whereas NVDA remains valued based on last year's metrics. This stability and resilience are due to this reason.
INTC
Performance has been poor. After yesterday's earnings report, it surged up to 13% in after-hours trading, but closed down 7.9% today, with an amplitude exceeding 20%.
If it cannot find support above the gap at 80, it will likely fall back below 70.
TSLA
There were no signs of resistance between 314-330; it broke through directly, with a lower target zone of 235-270.
Those attempting to bottom-fish for a bounce here need to set stop-losses;
Long-term investors should continue waiting for lower positions to average down.
Both TSLA and SPCX have plummeted miserably. It's time to test everyone's faith in Musk. I still have faith:
TSLA presents a particularly good opportunity for speculation in the 235-270 range;
I am waiting for SPCX to drop below 100 before averaging down.
The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.
