Likes ReceivedHow to view the outlook for non-ferrous metals? Huabao Fund's quick interpretation! Supply and demand shortage + low valuation + tech-driven, is an oversold rebound imminent?
(1.380) on January 29, it has cumulatively corrected by 32.33% why hasn't it seen an upward trend yet? What are the suppressing factors? Can it rise again in the future? This article will provide a detailed interpretation.
At the current juncture, the Huabao Fund Index Research and Investment Department It continues to be bullish on the non-ferrous metals sector, and its medium-to-long-term allocation value remains unchanged. The current non-ferrous metals sector possesses three core advantages: tight supply and demand, low valuation, and clear demand driven by technological industry trends.Reviewing recent market performance, the short-term non-ferrous metals sector is suppressed by two major external factors: We judge that the core operating range of crude oil may be anchored at $70–120/barrel. The center of this range is locked in by the resonance of short-term interests between the US and Iran. If this oil price Trump's core 诉求 is to win the midterm elections. When oil prices fall back to around $70, his moderate attitude towards Iran will be criticized by both parties. Coupled with the pressure on the profitability of the domestic shale oil industry, the US side tends to escalate geopolitical conflicts and strongly support oil prices. When oil prices surge to highs of $100–110, the risks of inflation and economic recession rise. The probability of the US side cooling down price controls and converging its tough stance towards Iran increases significantly;② Iran Side: both the US and Iran reject extreme oil price scenarios, forming a resonance in range constraints, jointly locking in the current oscillation center of $70–120. The resistance for crude oil prices to break previous highs is relatively large. Looking at the industry dimension, the long-term upward trend of the global technology industry is clearly certain. Looking back at 2000, the market could not predict the industrial transformation and huge market demand brought about by the comprehensive popularization of smart electronic products after 2025; standing at the current point of 2026, the market also finds it difficult to fully predict the brand-new industrial forms and massive demand increments Discussions about Federal Reserve rate hikes have continued to ferment recently. The current market expectation for Fed rate hikes is still a moderate and slow hike. Reviewing history, we find that copper prices basically showed an upward trend during the Fed rate hike cycle (supply and demand fundamentals) will eventually outweigh the financial attributesIn summary, the non-ferrous metals industry currently has a solid supply and demand shortage foundation, and it is superimposed with clear long-term growth dividends from the global technology industry. Our view of continuing to be bullish on the non-ferrous metals sector remains unchanged, and the medium-to-long-term allocation value of the non-ferrous metals sector remains unchanged.
[Positive Earnings Previews + Accumulating Strength at Low Levels, Oversold Rebound is Expected!]
Different non-ferrous metals have different prosperity levels, rhythms, and driving points, and differentiation is inevitable. If you are bullish on non-ferrous metals, a relatively easy approach is to better grasp the beta trend of the entire sector through full coverage. The target index of Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) and its feeder funds (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) comprehensively covers industries such as copper, aluminum, rare earths, gold, lithium, tungsten, molybdenum, and tin. Full category coverage can better grasp the beta trend of the entire sector. At the same time, this ETF is a margin trading and short selling target, making it an efficient tool for one-click layout of the non-ferrous metals sector.
As of the end of June, the latest scale of Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) is 1.345 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 107 million yuan over the past 6 months. Among the 3 ETFs tracking the CSI Non-Ferrous Index in the entire market, it is the ETF with the largest scale and best liquidity.
Source: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, etc., as of 2026.7.29.
Explanation of ETF fund-related fees: When investors subscribe to or redeem fund shares, the subscription and redemption agency may charge a commission at a standard not exceeding 0.5%. On-exchange transaction fees are subject to the actual charges of securities companies. ETFs do not charge sales service fees.
Risk Warning: Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF passively tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index. The base date of this index is December 31, 2013, and it was published on July 13, 2015. The composition of the index constituents is adjusted from time to time according to the index compilation rules. Its backtested historical performance does not indicate future performance of the index. The index constituents mentioned in this article are for display purposes only. Descriptions of individual stocks do not constitute any form of investment advice, nor do they represent the holding information and trading trends of any funds under the manager. The risk level of this fund assessed by the fund manager is R3-Medium Risk, suitable for balanced-type (C3) and above investors. Please refer to the sales institution for appropriateness matching opinions. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only. Investors must be responsible for any investment behavior decided autonomously. In addition, any views, analyses, and forecasts in this article do not constitute any form of investment advice to readers, nor do they bear any responsibility for direct or indirect losses caused by the use of the content of this article. Fund investment involves risks. The past performance of the fund does not represent its future performance. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the fund's performance. Fund investment requires caution.
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