$Oracle(ORCL.US) GPT analysis, for reference only:

My probability assessment (next 1-3 months)

Based on the data you provided:

Continued decline:

Probability approx. 35%

Reasons:

Panic over AI capital expenditures is heating up again;

The market continues to penalize negative FCF.

Target:

$110 or even $100.

Consolidation at the bottom:

Probability approx. 45%

Range:

$115–$140.

This is what I consider the most likely scenario currently.

Quick reversal:

Probability approx. 20%

Requires:

Oracle to prove OCI margins;

CapEx decrease;

Fulfillment of major client contracts.