Hynix Fell 8% In Seoul, Is The Cycle Turning?

Regardless when you see hyping on one hand and a counter-trend on the other hand, probably in an actively manipulated market scenario.

$Sandisk(SNDK.US): "We are in active conversations with existing NBM customers that are evaluating extending existing agreements and with new customers that are evaluating new NBMs."

Options dealers typically price event-driven moves, like earnings, at about two standard deviations. Halve that implied move, and you get a rough gauge of the stock’s daily swing. SK Hynix ($SK Hynix(SKHY.US)) is pricing a ~9.3% move, implying a typical daily range of roughly 4.5%.

Knowing a stock’s potential range and earnings behavior helps with sizing and hedging ahead of the print. Implied moves capture magnitude, not direction.

$Seagate Tech(STX.US)

Post 2 Ep.26

I was looking at the earning counters for this episode and feel like Seagate has the most upside potential. And I am happy that I decided to initiate a position yesterday on market open discount.

Now as market looks to pull back, I am thinking of adding more.

@Captain's Treasure

$Seagate Tech(STX.US)

Post 1 Ep.26 (Seagate - An earning counter for this week’s episode)

Seagate has been on my radar for a while. Decided to wait for its earnings results before initiating a position.

Was happy to see the market giving a discount post-earnings!

@Captain's Treasure

$Seagate Tech(STX.US)

Post 1 of Episode 26

(Seagate - One of the 7 earning counters mentioned on this episode)

Seagate’s results were outstanding both at the bottom-line and top-line. In fact, I can’t quite believe it when the market sold off on the earnings. Hence I decided to add more Seagate to my portfolio at the opening. Will talk more on the earnings and why I am so bullish on Seagate in the next posts.

@Captain's Treasure

U.S. stocks were modestly higher pre-market (SPX +0.1%, NDX +0.3%) as rising oil prices offset AI gains. Brent crude topped $115/barrel on reports of possible U.S. strikes on Iran after midterms. Investors awaited a likely hawkish hold Fed decision and earnings from $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) and $Microsoft(MSFT.US) today and $Amazon(AMZN.US) tomorrow. $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) surged on blockbuster results and its outlook that long-term memory demand will exceed supply through at least 2030, lifting Samsung and $Micron Tech(MU.US) in sympathy. Most tech names rose, with $Tesla(TSLA.US) and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) higher amid continued merger speculation, while $Robinhood(HOOD.US) fell on weak 3Q results. S&P 2026 EPS of $369 implies a 20.9x P/E (4.8% yield), inverted to the 5.01% 10-year, which is likely to ease as Iran tensions fade. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) given its extended valuation, negative earnings revisions, and our view that autonomous driving technology becomes a commodity over time.

What a historic and amazing Q3 2026 from SK Hynix! Bravo 👏

Revenue hit a new all‑time high at 104.6 trillion won, passing the 100‑trillion‑won milestone for the first time ever. Operating profit came in at 83.3 trillion won with an 80% operating margin and net profit reached 39.7 trillion won.

The main drivers are huge AI memory demand, rising chip prices, the launch of HBM4 shipments and robust DDR5 server sales.

The company’s cash position also got stronger, with net cash at 98.7 trillion won💪🏽and management says this AI‑driven memory shortage is set to continue through 2030.

With the above information I believe the share price has already factored in all the good news. I don’t think another big rally of 20-30% is likely to happen .

Memory sold out until 2029 shows how bullish it will be. But i think need to be wary if it can continue to produce enough supply for this demand and whether the AI demand will continue.

Awesome earnings from SK Hynix. Also noted that they mentioned shortage will continue to 2030. Even if we were to discount that by 1 or 2 years, it is still a long way ahead. Definitely bullish for AI stocks.

I remain bullish on the semiconductor sector because SK Hynix’s $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) sold-out memory supply highlights how strong AI demand has become. However, I do not want to chase prices after this rally. I prefer to accumulate gradually during pullbacks, especially in $Direxion Semicon Bull 3X(SOXL.US), while keeping an eye on Microsoft and Alphabet’s earnings for signs that AI spending is translating into real returns.

Sk Hynix posted record quarter once more with them being sold out till 2029, that is 2+ years from now. The stock is rising after hours as it should, but the long term share price stability remains a question. How long more will AI spending on memory chips continue? Can the customers of Sk Hynix fulfil their orders without solvency/debt issues?

$SK Hynix(SKHY.US) just made $62.8 billion in operating profit in a single quarter, up 632% from a year ago

Source: StockMarket.News

Jensen Huang dismissing 2029 memory glut fears reinforces that structural AI compute demand remains intact. While cyclical pricing worries trigger transient selloffs, upcoming earnings from memory makers offer high-conviction entry points to capitalize on long-term HBM tightness.

Hynix looks promising if AI holds, because it’s one of the bottleneck of the business or you can say it has a huge moat. But if AI demands fall, it will free fall a long way…

I am mainly watching $Direxion Semicon Bull 3X(SOXL.US) and $Micron Tech(MU.US) this week, as the recent AI and semiconductor sell-off has created potential opportunities, but also significant risks. For SK Hynix, I would focus on HBM4 demand, pricing power and whether strong earnings can translate into sustainable profits. For Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, I want to see whether cloud growth and AI monetization can justify their heavy capital spending. I have learned that leveraged ETFs like SOXL can amplify losses just as quickly as gains, so I prefer to wait for price stabilization and confirmation of support rather than chase a rebound. Implied moves help me prepare for volatility, but they do not tell me the direction. My priority is capital preservation, disciplined position sizing and consistency over trying to predict every earnings surprise.

Micron Tech and SK Hynix rise out of other US Local Stocks.

Singapore stock for Straits Times slightly increases whereas little change for local banks. But Tuas Ltd and Sea decrease.

For Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Index slightly shows positive.

And gold is reported below its usual price.

Jensen Huang’s reassuring outlook on memory demand gives Micron strong support ahead of earnings, but with surging oil prices, the upcoming Fed decision, and Big Tech earnings, I'm staying cautious before adding more.

$SK Hynix(SKHY.US)

🔥 SK Hynix Earnings: Will It Spark the Next AI Chip Rally?🙄

All eyes are on SK Hynix on 27 Oct 2026 at 8PM ET ( 28 October 2026 8am SGT ) 👀

The memory chip giant is set to report another strong quarter. Booming AI demand, rising memory prices and growing appetite for High Bandwidth Memory are driving the growth.

The big question now is whether the great results be enough to push chip stocks even higher?

📈 Who could benefit if results beat forecasts

🟢 Micron. Stands to gain from firmer memory prices and stronger HBM demand

🟢 Samsung. Investors will be watching closely how it stacks up in the HBM race

🟢 NVIDIA and TSMC. Positive sentiment could lift confidence across the whole AI infrastructure theme

🟢 ASML. Higher capital spending plans from chipmakers would support equipment demand

⚠️ There is one important thing to remember

Even outstanding earnings might not move the needle if the good news is already priced in.

What really matters is MANAGEMENT GUIDANCE for 2027 now.

Investors will be asking about HBM4 shipments, memory pricing trends and whether today’s strong profit margins can last.

A confident outlook could send memory and AI chip stocks higher. A cautious commentary may trigger profit taking even if the quarter looks impressive on paper.

💡 Key takeaway:

Do not buy just because a company reported great numbers. Always look at valuation, future growth expectations and how much margin of safety you are getting.

A wonderful business can still be too expensive at the wrong price.

📊 Please refer to the full infographic for three possible scenarios and the key names to watch

Not financial and investment advice. Please always do your own due diligence . Cheers .🥂

$Broadcom(AVGO.US)

Post 5 Ep.25

Context: Broadcom has been active in Singapore’s new advanced semiconductor substrate facility. While investors often focus on custom AI accelerators and networking chips, producing these increasingly sophisticated devices requires specialised packaging materials. Broadcom is taking steps to address that bottleneck directly.

My trade: This adds an interesting dimension to my Broadcom thesis. Through its partnership with TOPPAN, the company is strengthening access to the advanced substrates required for its next-generation AI and networking products. For me, this is about more than expanding capacity. It is about reducing supply-chain vulnerabilities that could otherwise limit growth, even when customer demand remains exceptionally strong.

Takeaway: Having the best chip design means little if you cannot manufacture enough of it. In an increasingly capacity-constrained AI industry, securing the ability to deliver may become just as important as securing the customer orders themselves. Sometimes competitive advantage is built long before the finished product reaches the market.

@Captain's Treasure

$iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX.US)

Background: SOXX tracks major semiconductor companies, benefiting from AI chip demand and data-centre spending. But after the massive rally, profit-taking and valuation concerns can trigger sharp pullbacks.

My trade: Bought at an average cost of US$489.

Takeaway: Long-term still bullish lah, as AI demand remains a key growth driver. Current price is around US$478, slightly below my cost. I would hold for the long term and avoid panic selling. If adding, do it in small batches only — semiconductor stocks can be very volatile one.