ynwa

$UOB(U11.SG)

A difficult week for UOB, with weakness across US markets adding to pressure on Singapore bank stocks. OCBC appears to have been the only local bank to beat earnings expectations this week, highlighting the challenging operating environment. The key question is whether this broader weakness will persist or prove to be a short-term bout of risk aversion. Strong US jobs data could complicate the Fed’s rate-cut path, keeping Treasury yields higher for longer and potentially supporting UOB’s NIMs.

$UOB(U11.SG)

UOB slipped further as weakness in DBS and broader pressure across Singapore bank stocks weighed on sentiment. The relationship with US Treasury yields is also worth watching. While higher rates can support lending yields, UOB’s latest results show that rising funding costs and deposit competition can offset those benefits, squeezing margins. I will be watching how Treasury yields evolve and whether the pressure on margins starts to ease.

$UOB(U11.SG)

Disappointing quarter for UOB, with earnings missing expectations despite a 182% YoY profit rebound. The headline growth was flattered by lower provisions, while net interest margins continued to compress and trading and investment income fell 29%. The outlook is also less encouraging, with funding cost pressures likely to weigh on margins. That said, record fee income from wealth and cards offers some positives. I’m treating this as a long-term investment and would look to add on further weakness.

$UOB(U11.SG)

UOB has pulled back despite remaining up more than 20% YTD, suggesting some profit-taking after a strong run. I’m still not too concerned just yet, as the broader banking story remains intact. All eyes are now on the US midterms. A Republican sweep, which markets are not pricing in, could trigger a shift in sentiment and provide a catalyst for UOB to rebound (due to higher expectations of US rates). I’m holding on and watching how things unfold.

$UOB(U11.SG)

UOB slipped 1.7% today, in line with broader weakness across Singapore banks as the STI fell 1.4%. Investors appear cautious ahead of the US midterms and this week’s bank earnings, with concerns around softer wealth fees and margin pressures also weighing on sentiment. I’m not reading too much into the pullback just yet. Will be watching Q3 results for signs of an earnings recovery as well as the guidance - especially with US rates remaining elevated.

$Keppel(BN4.SG)

Keppel has been battered recently, with headline earnings weighed down by legacy rig impairments, the fallout from the failed M1 divestment and probably broader profit taking in SGX. However, the underlying business remains more resilient, with recurring income and core earnings still growing. As a shareholder, I’m staying patient. The transition towards an asset-light, fee-generating business remains intact, and I’m looking for the market to eventually recognise that progress.

$UMS(558.SG)

UMS fell 3.6% today, a reminder that the semiconductor trade is not for everyone. Unlike the previous cycle, this rally is unlikely to be a straight line up, with volatility and sharp pullbacks part of the ride. As the semiconductor trade matures, I expect investors to become more selective and pay closer attention to earnings and valuations. I’m staying exposed, but prepared for more bumps along the way.

$UMS(558.SG)

UMS accelerated further today, helped by SK Hynix’s splendid results. The semiconductor trade looks to be roaring back, and while I probably entered too early, I’m glad I have exposure on. Timing the bottom is near impossible, and with AI-driven demand continuing to outstrip supply, the sector still has strong tailwinds behind it. Nevertheless, this trade remains a high risk high reward play.

$UMS(558.SG)

UMS rebounded around 3.3% today, a welcome recovery after the recent semiconductor selloff. While the share price is still well below my cost price, this kind of sharp move is exactly why I allocated a portion of my portfolio to the sector. I probably entered too early, but with AI-driven semiconductor demand still a longer-term theme, I’d rather maintain exposure and accept the volatility than risk missing the eventual recovery.

$UMS(558.SG)

UMS has been beaten down, and I’m hoping this week’s Wall Street semiconductor earnings can help stabilise sentiment across the sector. I probably entered too early, but timing the exact bottom in semiconductors is difficult. Rather than wait for a clear reversal and risk missing the rebound, I’d rather establish some exposure and ride out the volatility. The key is whether upcoming earnings can restore confidence in the broader chip trade.

My Call: -3.7% to +3.7%

Why: Tesla’s rally today appears to be driven partly by merger speculation, bringing forward some optimism ahead of earnings. While results could beat expectations, some upside may already be priced in. I expect a relatively muted reaction unless Tesla delivers a meaningful earnings or guidance surprise.

$UMS(558.SG)

Context: I bought UMS today as the stock looks oversold after its recent weakness. Wall Street’s chip stocks trading higher tonight, which could provide a tailwind for sentiment across the semiconductor sector.

My trade: Opened a position today, hoping the positive momentum on Wall Street carries through to UMS at tomorrow’s open.

Takeaway: Looking for a short-term rebound, but I’ll be watching whether the recovery has staying power.

$UOB(U11.SG)

Context: UOB breached my cost price this week following a rebound in Singapore bank stocks. I remain constructive on the sector, but valuations are elevated and the market seems to be pricing in near-perfect execution.

My trade: Holding my position for now after averaging down during the recent weakness.

Takeaway: The recovery is encouraging, but with expectations running high, there is limited room for disappointment.

$Keppel(BN4.SG)

Context: Keppel has dropped to S$10.10 amid broader SGX weakness as markets reprice expectations for Fed rate hikes. The technical picture is also deteriorating, with a death cross potentially forming as the shorter-term moving average approaches a cross below the longer-term average.

My trade: I still like Keppel as a blue-chip holding and may look to add if the pullback presents a more attractive entry.

Takeaway: I’m staying constructive on the fundamentals, but will be mindful of the weakening technicals before adding.

$SIA Engineering(S59.SG)

Context: SIA Engineering hit a 52-week low today, making this an increasingly frustrating position to hold. The lack of momentum has reinforced my concerns about its near-term upside.

My trade: At this point, I’ll wait for the stock to recover to my breakeven level before exiting and redeploying the capital elsewhere.

Takeaway: Not the position I wanted to be stuck in, but I’ll look to exit at breakeven and move on to stronger opportunities.

$UOB(U11.SG)

Context: UOB has bounced back to S$40.50 following the recent weakness, with oversold conditions potentially supporting a further recovery.

My trade: I’m standing pat after accumulating during the pullback, rather than adding further at this stage.

Takeaway: I want to see whether the rebound has legs before committing more capital. For now, I’m happy with the position I’ve built during the weakness.

$UOB(U11.SG)

Context: I took advantage of the reduced board lot size to add UOB and average down. While markets have scaled back expectations of further Fed hikes due to weak job numbers, I think persistent inflation will likely keep further hikes on the table.

My trade: Started position in UOB.

Takeaway: UOB’s rate sensitivity could be a tailwind if the Fed remains higher for longer, supporting my longer-term view. Reduced board lot size also improves accessibility to SG bank stocks.

NFP showed weaker job numbers than anticipated, which reversed expectations of near term Fed rate hikes. Markets are no longer pricing in one more rate hike by end of year. This should give some relief at the short end of the curve and has led to a broad rally since the data was released

$Keppel(BN4.SG)

Context: Keppel fell towards S$11.04 today, bringing it closer to the levels I’ve been watching for another entry. The recent weakness looks more interesting after missing the chance to add around S$11.01 previously.

My trade: Holding my existing position and watching the S$11 area closely for an opportunity to add.

Takeaway: I’ll be more deliberate this time if the stock revisits my preferred entry range.

$Keppel Reit(K71U.SG)

Context: Keppel REIT closed flat at S$0.85, but the rate backdrop is becoming more supportive. Softer-than-expected core PCE has reduced expectations of a near-term Fed hike, although stronger jobs data still gives some pause.

My trade: Holding for now and watching whether improving rate expectations can provide a catalyst for the REIT.

Takeaway: A less hawkish Fed would remove some pressure from rate-sensitive REITs and could help unlock a breakout.

With oil climbing, I’m still hesitant to buy energy companies. Most of the tightness in the energy markets we see will unwind quickly should there be a US-Iran deal - a risk that I don’t want to take. I’d rather continue to ride on the AI theme, but importantly only buy on dips provided by market correction from higher bond yields or AI fears

$Keppel(BN4.SG)

Context: Keppel has rebounded to S$11.47 from its recent low of S$11.01, making the pullback look like a missed opportunity in hindsight. The fundamentals remain intact, so I’ll be more cognisant of these dips moving forward.

My trade: Holding my existing position and watching for another attractive entry.

Takeaway: I missed the chance to add this time, but I’ll be watching closely for the next pullback.