EdmundK
CPI tonight comes in cooler and Waller’s hike talk is just Fed credibility management. They’ve done enough. With inflation trending down and growth slowing, the next move is still a cut in Q4. I’m buying the dip in duration and tech into that pivot.
Chips bouncing out of a bear market in 2 days while headlines are this bad shows how structural AI demand is. Geopolitics can’t kill the capex cycle. This dip was a gift and the market is telling us the AI trade has real staying power into H2.
This isn’t just valuation. China’s own AI models and cloud push are finally monetizing, and Alibaba is the proxy. With US chips pausing and Beijing easing, money has a reason to stay. I’m calling this the start of a 6-12 month leadership flip, not a 1-day squeeze.
Samsung just printed record profits, so demand isn’t dead. Memory chips going bear while AI capex keeps ramping feels like a sector rotation shakeout, not an AI top. I’m using this to add because HBM and datacenter memory still have years of runway.
$58B operating profit, up 19x in a year, isn’t luck. That’s HBM + AI server demand blowing through estimates. If Samsung is printing this with memory pricing still rising, the supercycle isn’t peaking yet. I’m buying the confirmation and holding for the next capex wave.
∼$27B of forced buying into a tiny float is real fuel, not just hype. Index inclusion days often run hard because funds have to buy no matter the price, so I’m chasing the pop with tight risk and riding the liquidity wave.
480k deliveries beating by 74k is a monster quarter, so the 7.5% drop feels like AI/robotaxi impatience, not fundamentals. I’m buying this dip ahead of July 22 margins + robotaxi updates, because the AI premium isn’t done yet.
Micron -8% and SanDisk -10% on a DRAM lawsuit looks like headline risk, not broken demand. Meta +10% on cloud/AI spend shows the trade’s still alive, so I’m using this semis washout as a dip to buy.
AI demand looks structural, not a fad. With chips now 19.7% of the S&P and the best quarter since 2020, I’m riding the AI trade into Q3. Capex from hyperscalers should keep this rally going despite the noise.
The Fed’s hawkish turn is just temporary noise; the Dow’s 52,000 breakthrough signals robust market strength, so I’m aggressively adding into the rally ahead of payrolls data release tomorrow.
The AI‑chip capex supercycle is accelerating aggressively, massive investments from Korea’s $650B and Singapore’s export boom will fuel long‑term tech innovation, driving Nvidia and suppliers into sustained, high‑margin growth phases across global markets.
AI memory demand isn’t consumer discretionary — it’s capex for data centers and training models. Apple/Microsoft raising prices just proves the shortage is real. As long as enterprises keep spending on AI infra, chipmakers keep printing. Consumer pushback lags by quarters. I’m betting the boom runs longer than bears think.
$50B guidance with 86% margins isn’t a peak, it’s confirmation the AI memory cycle still has legs. If HBM demand keeps outpacing supply, this is NVDA 2023 all over again. I’m treating any post-print shakeout as a buying chance, not an exit signal. Cycle’s not done yet.