amit

I think $Uber Tech(UBER.US) looks compelling here.

At ~$76, I think fair value is closer to $120.

The numbers are pretty compelling:

- Uber generated ~$9.8B of FCF in 2025, up 42% YoY

- Consensus has FCF reaching ~$11B in 2026 and ~$13B in 2027

- Uber now has 200M+ monthly users and processes 40M+ trips per day

- Uber trades around 12x projected 2027 FCF despite FCF still expected to grow ~18% that year

The obvious reason for the discount is autonomous vehicles. The market is worried Waymo/Tesla eventually disintermediate Uber.

I think the opposite outcome could be underpriced: Uber becomes the demand, distribution and payments layer connecting hundreds of millions of consumers with AV fleets. I am not fully sold on this thesis…but what if that’s how it plays out? Would Uber not be the most obvious name trading at an irrationally priced discount?

Uber has 200M+ monthly users and enormous existing demand. An AV manufacturer has to build the cars, operate the fleet, maintain them, reposition them, and then somehow acquire millions of riders.

That’s why I find the valuation interesting here.

You aren’t paying 30x FCF and hoping Uber wins AV…you’re paying roughly 12x 2027 FCF for the existing business and getting the possibility that Uber becomes a major AV distribution layer.

If AVs destroy Uber’s moat, the discount makes sense, the question is if that will actually happen.

Using roughly $13B of 2027 FCF:

Bear case: 17x FCF → $108

Base case: 19x FCF → $120/share

Bull case: 22x FCF → $140/share

No position yet but the risk/reward is compelling.

Source: amit

Some thoughts on 13F season disclosures that we got…

First, the top 10 names that were bought in Q2 across the largest funds:

$Microsoft(MSFT.US), $Meta Platforms(META.US), $Visa(V.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US), $BRK.B, $S&P Global(SPGI.US), $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), $Disney(DIS.US), $Capital One Financial(COF.US), $Thermo Fisher Scentific(TMO.US)

It is obvious that the blue chip companies and Mag 7 names continue to be preferred by larger investors over the semiconductor names. Four of the top 10 stocks bought were Mag 7s. While the semiconductor names are getting a bid, they are getting it from the David Teppers, Brad Gerstners, and Chase Colemans of the world. The larger funds that aren’t as aggressive are just buying discounts on some of the highest quality businesses like Visa, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft.

$Uber Tech(UBER.US) got some big buys. Ackman added to his position by 14%, Tepper added to his by 21%, and Terry Smith bought 8M shares.

$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)L was the most heavily sold Mag 7. While it was in the top 10 most bought stocks, that was because of concentration vs number of funds. 26 larger funds reduced their position while only 4 added to it, but the ones who added did so heavily. Berkshire increased their stake by 45%.

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) had some heavy buyers but it seems like many of these funds had existing xAI positions, like Nvidia and AMD, and they didn’t sell in Q2 but they didn’t freshly buy on the open market.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) and $Sandisk(SNDK.US) were not super present across disclosures. Tepper sold 40% of his position. Brad Gerstner added 209K shares.

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US), and $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) continued to be very strong large caps that either got a decent amount of buying or holds across portfolios with few sells.

Peter Thiel disclosed a $418M portfolio with 72% of the names allocated to energy which might end up being the next bottleneck that gets significant buyers. His positions: $Amazon(AMZN.US), $Visa(V.US)IST, $Visa(V.US)ST, $American Electric Power(AEP.US), $DTE Energy(DTE.US), $Firstenergy(FE.US), $CMS Energy(CMS.US), and $X-Energy(XE.US).

Overall, it seems like the bias has been around buying large caps with sustainable earnings growth over smaller growth stocks. Financials are not really showing up either, neither is healthcare, but the market is broadening to them. Tech continues to dominate. The S&P is at all time highs so obviously there is significant buying over selling but the question now is, at what point do many of these funds allocate outside of tech or do they continue to double down on the discount that blue chips and Mag 7s are seeing vs the semi names that had a hard July but still trade at much higher multiples vs the rest of the market.

To be honest, $Uber Tech(UBER.US) is the most compelling to me from these disclosures. It has been stuck for literally 2 years, the FCF is growing massively, and the big guys are buying in heavily.

Are there any names disclosed that you are starting to get interested in?

Source: amit

I just discovered the song Bohemian Rhapsody last week.

Have not stopped listening to it ever since.

It is a top 10 song of all time.

The lyricism is incredible with a mystery that creatives the most beautiful thing about art: subjective, internal interpretation.

Source: amit

NVIDIA DISCLOSES 122M SHARE STAKE IN SPACEX WORTH $17B.

It looks like this is from the $10B xAI investment Nvidia made back in January which has now converted into SpaceX shares.

Elon last week said that SpaceX will exclusively be working with Nvidia chips.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $SpaceX(SPCX.US)

Source: amit

NVIDIA BUYS 122M SHARES OF SPACEX, $21B STAKE

Elon last week: “We are exclusively using Nvidia chips.”

bffs 🥰

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $SpaceX(SPCX.US)

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. SanDisk $Sandisk(SNDK.US) laid out its investor day targets, guiding for mid-to-high teens revenue growth, roughly 80% non-GAAP gross margins, and about 50% adjusted free cash flow margins. The company also expects to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. SanDisk highlighted its HBF technology as a potential major efficiency unlock for AI inference, saying internal testing showed 1 HBF GPU could run the same model that required 8 HBM GPUs, implying 8x CapEx efficiency, while 4 HBF GPUs matched the token output of 8 HBM GPUs, implying 2x GPU efficiency. $Sandisk(SNDK.US) was up 14%.

2. U.S. PPI came in slightly cooler on the headline number, rising 4.7% YoY versus 4.9% expected and 0.0% MoM versus 0.2% expected. Core PPI was mixed, rising 4.2% YoY versus 4.1% expected, but only 0.2% MoM versus 0.3% expected. Initial jobless claims came in at 209K versus 202K expected, while continued claims were 1.777M versus 1.794M expected.

3. Norway’s $2.3T sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, generated a record $184.3B profit in H1 2026. The fund returned 9.4% over the period, with its 72.1% equity allocation up 13.0%. In Q2 alone, the portfolio gained 11.5%, its strongest quarter since Q2 2020, led by equities returning 16.0% as AI-related names drove performance. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) remained the fund’s largest holding at the end of H1, followed by Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US) and Apple $Apple(AAPL.US). Norway’s fund now owns roughly 1.5% of all publicly listed companies globally and has become one of the world’s largest institutional investors in AI-related stocks.

4. OpenAI’s annualized revenue has reportedly topped $40B, roughly doubling its run rate from the end of 2025, according to Bloomberg. July run-rate revenue rose more than 20% MoM, driven by strength in Codex, subscriptions, and early ad sales, highlighting how quickly OpenAI’s monetization is scaling across both consumer and business lines.

5. Reddit $Reddit(RDDT.US) is set to join the S&P 500 before the open on August 18, replacing AvalonBay Communities $AvalonBay Communities(AVB.US). AvalonBay is being acquired by Equity Residential $Equity Residential(EQR.US), with the combined company expected to remain in the index under the new name Vivmark Residential $EQUITY RESIDENTIAL(VMRK.US). S&P Dow Jones Indices also announced that Sun Communities $Sun Communities(SUI.US) will join the S&P MidCap 400 before the open on August 20, replacing Webster Financial $Webster Financial-Waterbury(WBS.US), which is being acquired by Banco Santander $Banco Santander SA-Spon(SAN.US).

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.4M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.0M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 1.2M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 1.0M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 881K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 863K contracts, $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) with 843K contracts, $Netflix(NFLX.US) with 681K contracts, $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 625K contracts, and $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 600K contracts.

7. Ondas $Ondas(ONDS.US) reported Q2’26 revenue of $83.8M, beating estimates of $68M and up 67% QoQ. Adjusted gross margin came in at 50.4%, while adjusted EBITDA was -$50.6M versus -$32M expected. Backlog reached $613M, or $757M pro forma including DZYNE and Cyberhawk, with $175M of new orders in Q2 and another $105M already in Q3 to date. Ondas raised FY26 revenue guidance to $525M–$550M versus $509M expected and guided Q3 revenue to $140M–$155M. The company also pulled forward its profitability timeline, now targeting platform-level adjusted EBITDA profitability by Q4 2026 and company-wide profitability by Q4 2027. Key wins included a $52.9M lethal unmanned strike order, more than $240M of captured orders under a $982M Army IDIQ program, and NASA raising its Stratollite IDIQ ceiling from $45M to $395M.

8. Nu Holdings $NU Holdings(NU.US) reported Q2’26 revenue of $5.51B, beating estimates of $5.23B, up 50.3% YoY. Diluted EPS came in at $0.216 versus $0.20 expected, while net income rose 66.8% YoY to $1.06B. Gross profit increased 51.6% YoY to $2.35B, total assets grew 31.9% YoY to $82.75B, and total interest income and gains reached $4.76B, up 52.1% YoY. On the balance sheet, deposits rose 23.7% YoY to $45.33B, credit card receivables increased 42.1% YoY to $21.49B, loans to customers grew 43.8% YoY to $11.32B, and total equity reached $13.25B.

9. Elon Musk disclosed ownership of 6,418,547,515 SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX.US) shares in a new SEC filing, representing a 48.4% stake in the company. Based on the filing, Musk’s stake is valued at roughly $908.35B.

10. Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) is facing permitting-related delays at its Vineland data center after Hunterbrook reported a second stop-construction order at the site. The first order, issued on August 6, paused LNG tank work, while the second, issued on August 10, paused Bloom Energy $Bloom Energy(BE.US) fuel-cell work after the city said required approvals and permits had not been secured. Nebius said on August 12 that it does not expect a material impact to the project timeline and confirmed that Vineland capacity remains included in its 2026 connected power targets. The main building structure was completed earlier this summer, engineering fit-out is underway, and fuel-cell installation is expected to move quickly once the permitting issues are resolved.

11. OpenAI is replacing chief revenue officer Denise Dresser less than a year after she joined the company. Dresser is leaving to pursue other opportunities, while Dali Rajic, president and COO of Alphabet-owned Wiz, will take over the role. The move marks another major leadership change as OpenAI scales revenue across enterprise, subscriptions, APIs, and new monetization channels.

12. Hedge funds bought $6.8B of U.S. equities last week, the largest weekly purchase in 18 years. As a share of S&P 500 market cap, it ranked as the 9th-largest weekly buy since 2008. This follows $4.8B of purchases the week before, bringing total hedge fund buying to $11.6B over the last 2 weeks, the largest two-week purchase on record. The 4-week average of hedge fund purchases has now risen to $1.8B. Meanwhile, institutional investors sold $1.1B, their second straight weekly sale, while retail investors sold $4.1B, pushing their 4-week average selling to $500M.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

$Reddit(RDDT.US)

REDDIT ADDED TO THE S&P 500

LETS. GO.

Source: amit

S a a S

S u m m e r

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) 107 —> $179

$Shopify (SHOP.US) $97 —> $157

$Reddit(RDDT.US) $120 —> $155

$Adobe(ADBE.US) $193 —> $271

$ServiceNow(NOW.US) $80 —> $125

$Datadog(DDOG.US) $105 —> $252

$Atlassian(TEAM.US) $57 —> $165

$Zeta Global(ZETA.US) $18 —> $29

$IGV +42% from April lows

anyone who took a chance on software over the past few months, especially in the face of semis ripping higher daily, deserves to enjoy this one

quality businesses that are governing and orchestrating tokens got sold off for fears from model companies that ultimately will be providing AI tools to make the application layer even stronger

the rotation to SaaS is also not taking away from semis which is strong for the broader health of the market

Source: amit

$Sandisk(SNDK.US)

Sandisk is basically getting the earnings reaction it deserved a week later based on updates at their event.

- Guiding for Mid-to-high teens revenue growth

- 80% non-GAAP gross margins

- 50% adjusted free cash flow margins

- Returning 100% of excess cash to shareholders

- HBF could materially reduce GPU requirements for AI inference

- 8x capex efficiency: 1 HBF GPU ran the same model that required 8 HBM GPUs

- 2x GPU efficiency: 4 HBF GPUs matched the token output of 8 HBM GPUs

Wonder if the sell side is gonna raise their targets back to $3000 now 😂

Source: amit

MOMENTUM CONTINUES

ALL TIME HIGHS FOR THE S&P 500

what a difference a week makes

memory up, software up, hyperscalers up

PPI better than expected, rate hike probabilities now at 30% down from 65%

we are approaching extreme greed and the vix is at lows of the year which is a time to be more cautious

but given the july drawdown, it makes sense for there to be an active bid coming back to this market even if it’s not as aggressive as the last rally

especially with many of these names still down 20-30%

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) earnings in a few weeks will likely make sense of the momentum we are seeing with AI names

Source: amit

BILL ACKMAN IS BACK IN NETFLIX.

He first invested in $Netflix(NFLX.US) back in 2022 at around $350 a share. $1.1B in.

He sold it for a 40% loss after a few months, losing $400M.

He took that money and put it into Google, which did well, but during the same time, Netflix went up 650% from the lows.

At the time, he said the lesson he learned from that experience was that he felt better about trusting his intuition and making decisions regardless of the outcome.

The stock is now down down 50% and he’s back in, his logic below:

“Looking forward, we expect Netflix to compound revenue at a double-digit growth rate, with content costs growing more slowly than revenue driving continued margin expansion. Combined with a robust buyback program, we estimate earnings should compound at close to 20% annually. We believe the company's current valuation multiple represents a substantial discount for a business with such a strong growth profile and dominant market position.”

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) reported Q2’26 revenue of $582.3M, beating estimates of $573M and up 454% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $236.2M versus $175M expected, compared to -$21M last year. AI Cloud revenue surged 514% YoY to $575M, operating cash flow reached $2.25B, and cash stood at $8.04B. Nebius reaffirmed FY26 guidance, now expects customer prepayments of more than $9B in 2026, and raised contracted capacity to 5 GW from prior guidance of more than 4 GW. Management said it could sell its entire 2027 capacity today, but is deliberately holding some back for higher-value immediate customer demand. $Nebius(NBIS.US) finished up 34% on the day.

2. July CPI came in cooler, with headline inflation rising just 0.1% MoM after falling 0.4% in June. Over the last 12 months, CPI rose 3.4%, down from 3.5% in June. Shelter increased 0.1% and accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly increase, while food also rose 0.1% and food away from home climbed 0.3%. Energy prices fell 1.5% on the month. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% after being flat in June, while annual core inflation eased to 2.5% from 2.6%. Energy remains the biggest annual pressure point, up 14.7% YoY, while food is up 3.0% over the last year.

3. Bank of America $Bank of America(BAC.US) plans to deploy $250B through mid-2027 across AI data centers, semiconductors, hardware, power generation, energy storage, and critical minerals, according to WSJ. The initiative will span lending, investing, capital markets, banking, and advisory work. BofA said equity investments are not the focus, but has not ruled them out for the right projects. The push also extends beyond AI infrastructure into transportation, natural gas, and water infrastructure.

4. Institutional investors are reducing U.S. tech exposure. Hedge funds, asset managers, and other large investors sold $21.6B of Nasdaq futures in the week ending August 4, the largest weekly sale on record, according to Goldman Sachs. Short sales drove the move, accounting for 72% of total selling. Hedge funds sold $11.9B, while asset managers sold $7.4B. As a result, combined institutional positioning in Nasdaq futures fell to -$5B, turning negative for the first time since May 2025 after reaching as high as +$54B in October 2025.

5. South Korea is tightening rules on single-stock leveraged ETFs again, requiring new investors to complete at least 5 days of mock trading totaling 5+ hours before buying these products. The rule takes effect August 19 and applies to investments both locally and abroad. The move follows a sharp retail wipeout in leveraged ETF products, after regulators already raised the minimum cash deposit requirement to 30M won or roughly $21,000, and extended mandatory online training for new investors to 3 hours.

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.6M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.2M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 1.7M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 1.3M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.2M contracts, $Blue Owl Capital(OWL.US) with 908K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 903K contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 796K contracts, $Hertz Global(HTZ.US) with 725K contracts, and $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) with 720K contracts.

7. OpenAI’s run-rate revenue from business customers grew 32% MoM in July, outpacing 20% growth in overall run-rate revenue, according to DealBook. The gap highlights how quickly enterprise demand is becoming a larger driver of OpenAI’s growth as companies scale paid usage across AI tools, APIs, and workflow integrations.

8. Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management is reportedly preparing a potential take-private bid for Wendy’s $Wendys(WEN.US), according to FT. Trian is Wendy’s largest shareholder with a 16% stake and is assembling a consortium that could include BlueFive Capital and major franchisee Flynn Group. A formal offer could come in the coming weeks, though talks could still change or fall apart.

9. Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) unveiled the Pixel 11 lineup, including the Pixel 11, Pixel 11 Pro, Pixel 11 Pro XL, and Pixel 11 Pro Fold, while raising prices by $100 versus the prior generation due to a “severe” memory crunch. The lineup now starts at $899, while the foldable starts at $1,899. Google also introduced the Pixel Watch 5 at $399, adding insulin-resistance tracking, which it says is a first for the category.

10. Bill Ackman is back in Netflix $Netflix(NFLX.US). He first bought the stock in 2022 around $350/share, investing roughly $1.1B, before selling a few months later for a 40% loss and taking a roughly $400M hit. He redeployed the capital into Google, which worked, but Netflix went on to rise about 650% from its lows. Now, with the stock down roughly 50%, Ackman is back in. His thesis is that Netflix can compound revenue at a double-digit rate, grow content costs more slowly than revenue, continue expanding margins, and use its buyback program to help drive earnings growth near 20% annually. Ackman says the current valuation is a substantial discount for a business with Netflix’s growth profile and dominant market position. He also added $Visa(V.US), $Mastercard(MA.US), $Intercontinental Exchange(ICE.US), $Alcon(ALC.US), and $S&P Global(SPGI.US) to his portfolio.

11. The financial industry cut 14,000 jobs in July, bringing payrolls down to 9.09M, the lowest level since July 2022. This marks the sector’s 5th straight monthly decline, with total job losses of 59,000 over that stretch. Since May 2025, financial industry payrolls are down 121,000, the largest drawdown since the 2020 pandemic. Excluding the pandemic, this is the biggest contraction in financial-sector employment since the 2008 Financial Crisis, as firms accelerate AI adoption to boost productivity and reduce labor costs.

12. The S&P 500 has historically kept climbing after major breakouts to new all-time highs. Over the last 30 years, the index has risen in 13 of 17 similar instances, gaining an average of roughly 6.3% over the next 6 months. The only exceptions were 2000, 2007, 2018, and 2019, with 2000 and 2007 preceding major bear markets. Most recently, after a similar breakout in 2025, the S&P 500 gained 12.3% over the following six months. The index has now posted 26 all-time highs in 2026, following 39 record closes in 2025 and 57 in 2024.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

what a day man

probably a bit euphoric for sure but still

one of those days where you remember that bears sound smart but bulls actually make money

especially when people are investing in companies that are compounding earnings and showing some of the strongest growth rates in history

much needed day after july’s drawdown and some names are still down meaningfully from the highs which is leveling off much of the euphoria and hopefully creating a stronger base of consolidation

Source: amit

BURRY:

- I SHORTED MORE $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Oracle(ORCL.US) & $Nebius(NBIS.US) TODAY

- NEBIUS IS WHAT THE TOP OF A BOOM LOOKS LIKE

- DEPRECIATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN, THE SAME THING THAT EXTENDED THE DOT COM BUBBLE

looks like he’s doubling down

Source: amit

added $DRAM $Bloom Energy(BE.US) $Intel(INTC.US) in the premarket

my reasoning….

- Kospi is recovering, hitting the 40 week moving avg and expecting a bounce

- Citadel pump, Ken Griffin didnt liquidate the AI trade for those names to be stuck

- All of these names are still down 30-40% from highs but their charts are recovering so didn’t get the bottom but also less risk of a falling knife

- Attractive enough where i can double the position sizes on a 10-15% drawdown

- Jensen ai buildout announcement this week is very bullish for all ai infra

- oil will come down, no rate hikes

- leverage is wiped out of the system to an extent which should make it easier for these names to not get exuberant and rather find less degen buyers

- memory is cheap even with structural concerns

- $intc raise was massively oversubscribed, tutes know that its going to be the TSM of America

now, these are more trades vs investments and have specific targets I’d like to trim at but if they can gain the momentum they had in June (not expecting them to get it anytime soon) then with more earnings growth and less leverage, those levels might be more sustainable and these trades could turn into long term holds

Source: amit

$Nebius(NBIS.US)

NEBIUS SMASHES Q2 2026 EARNINGS:

- Revenue $582M, +454% YoY

- EPS -$0.12, +68% YoY

- ARR $3.0B at End of June, +58% QoQ

- AI Cloud Adjusted EBITDA Margin 50% vs 24% in Q4 2025

- 2026 Contracted Power Guidance Raised to 5 GW

- Contracted Power Guidance Has Increased 5x Since August 2025

- Capacity Footprint Expanding Across U.S. & Europe

- FY2026 Guidance Reaffirmed

AI infrastructure demand is just getting started.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. CoreWeave $Coreweave(CRWV.US) reported Q2’26 revenue of $2.6B, slightly ahead of estimates of $2.56B, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.5B versus $1.43B expected and adjusted EBITDA margin of 59%. Revenue backlog reached roughly $104B, up 46% YoY, while active power more than tripled YoY to 1.5GW and contracted power increased to 4.2GW. CoreWeave raised FY26 guidance to $12.4B–$13.2B in revenue and $960M–$1.15B in adjusted operating income, while lifting its active power target to more than 1.85GW. The company now expects year-end annualized run-rate revenue of $18.5B–$19.5B, managed inference ARR above $250M exiting 2026, and long-term active power of 8GW+ by 2030. Management said customer demand is accelerating as enterprise adoption broadens and its platform deepens.

2. Gemini has become $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Google’s fastest-growing product ever, crossing 1B monthly users and becoming the company’s 14th product to reach the billion-user milestone. The scale-up underscores how quickly Google is pushing Gemini across Search, Android, Workspace, and its broader AI ecosystem.

3. BofA downgraded AppLovin $AppLovin(APP.US) to Neutral with a $400 price target, saying risks to the company’s long-term 30% YoY revenue growth trajectory have increased. Analyst Omar Dessouky said post-Q2 growth appears to be driven more by engineer-directed improvements to Gaming models, while it is less clear whether the prior 3%–5% QoQ self-learning growth assumption still applies. BofA also noted that with AppLovin’s high relative market share, estimated at roughly 2x its next-largest competitor, long-term growth from self-learning alone may be harder to sustain than the market previously assumed.

4. President Trump is reportedly weighing a capital gains tax cut ahead of the midterms, including the idea of indexing capital gains to inflation before taxes are calculated. Under that approach, investors would only owe taxes on the inflation-adjusted “real” gain, not the full nominal gain. For example, if someone bought a business or stock position for $2M and sold it years later for $5M, the nominal gain would be $3M. But if cumulative inflation over that period was 25%, the inflation-adjusted cost basis would rise to $2.5M, leaving only $2.5M of taxable real gain instead of $3M. Trump has also floated capital gains exemptions for home sales worth $2M or less. There has not been a major U.S. capital gains tax cut since 2003.

5. Senator Bernie Sanders has reportedly called on major AI companies to pause development, sending letters to the CEOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta, according to NYT. The push adds to the growing political scrutiny around frontier AI development, safety, and whether the largest labs should slow deployment as model capabilities continue advancing.

6. Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) is reportedly still planning a glass-centric iPhone redesign for the device’s 20th anniversary in 2027, contrary to a Jefferies report that said it had been canceled, according to Bloomberg. The new Pro models are expected to feature glass that curves into the sides, with a metal band running through the middle.

7. U.S. existing home sales fell 1.7% in July to a 4.06M annualized pace, slightly above estimates. Median existing home prices rose 2% YoY to $434,100, while inventory increased to 1.54M homes. The data points to a housing market that is still soft on transaction volume, but with prices remaining resilient as supply continues to build.

8. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.2M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 1.4M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 861K contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 823K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 664K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 568K contracts, $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 559K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 555K contracts, $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 546K contracts, and $Hertz Global(HTZ.US) with 518K contracts.

9. Supermicro $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) reported Q4’26 revenue of $11.1B, below estimates of $11.55B, but adjusted EPS came in at $1.70 versus $0.96 expected, up 315% YoY. Gross margin expanded to 17.5%, up 800 bps YoY, while net income reached $1.2B, adjusted EBITDA was $1.7B, and operating income came in at $1.5B. For Q1, Supermicro guided revenue to $14.5B–$15.5B, well above estimates of $11.68B, with adjusted EPS of $1.01–$1.10. For FY27, the company guided revenue to $65B–$72B, far ahead of the $52.5B estimate. Management said Supermicro generated more than $60B in new orders and entered fiscal 2027 with record backlog, while improving profitability through a richer enterprise customer mix and broader adoption of its optimized Data Center Building Block Solutions architecture.

10. Stifel reiterated its Buy rating on Rocket Lab $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) and raised its price target to $132, saying the company delivered a “beat and raise” quarter with Q2 results ahead of expectations across revenue, margins, and EBITDA. Rocket Lab signed 26 new Electron/HASTE missions, expanded total launch backlog to more than 90 missions, and grew overall backlog to roughly $2.4B, with another $800M of bookings added after quarter-end. Stifel also highlighted accelerating Space Systems revenue as SDA programs ramp, multiple defense awards, and continued progress on Neutron, which remains on schedule for pad delivery in Q4’26. The firm said Rocket Lab’s Iridium acquisition, GHOST launch system, defense exposure, backlog visibility, and limited competition create a compelling long-term risk/reward despite near-term cash burn.

11. Schwab clients were net buyers of ETFs and equities in July by a 2:1 ratio. The top stocks bought were $SpaceX(SPCX.US), $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Intel(INTC.US), $Oracle(ORCL.US), and $Tesla(TSLA.US), while the top stocks sold were $Apple(AAPL.US), $Broadcom(AVGO.US), $Adobe(ADBE.US), $Paypal(PYPL.US), and $AMD(AMD.US). The data shows retail leaning back into high-beta AI, memory, and space-linked names while trimming exposure to some of the market’s more mature tech leaders.

12. The SEC is reportedly preparing to roll out two major crypto initiatives $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US) $ETH as the Clarity Act stalls in Congress, according to Bloomberg. The agency will hold an open meeting Friday to create a tailored offering regime for certain crypto-related investment contracts. The SEC is also expected to unveil an “innovation exemption” for trading tokenized securities, potentially paving the way for 24/7 trading of stock tokens on blockchains. Details could be released as soon as Friday, though the proposal is still being finalized and could change.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

CITADEL: WE BELIEVE SYSTEMATIC BUYERS ARE GETTING READY TO LOAD UP ON STOCKS AGAIN AFTER A MASSIVE UNWIND

- scare everyone into a rate hike that wouldn't happen

- crash the AI trade and pickup the best names at dirt cheap levels

- pump the AI trade again to benefit

ruthless

Source: amit

$Coreweave(CRWV.US)

COREWEAVE CRUSHES Q2 2026 EARNINGS:

- Revenue $2.575B +112% YoY

- Adjusted EBITDA $1.51B +101% YoY

- Adjusted EBITDA Margin 59%

- Revenue Backlog of $104B

- Active Power 1.5 GW, Contracted Power 3.7 GW

- Added $25B+ of New Customer Commitments in Early Q3

CEO Michael Intrator:

"CoreWeave reached an important inflection point this quarter as our scale began to translate into expanding operating leverage. Customer demand is accelerating, as enterprise adoption broadens and we continue to deepen our technology platform."

Pretty incredible execution with margin expansion to 59% and adding 500MW of capacity.

Still down 30% from the highs but up 72% from the lows of July.

Source: amit

SCHWAB CLIENTS IN JULY WERE NET BUYERS BY A 2:1 RATIO IN ETFS AND EQUITIES.

Top stocks bought:

- $SpaceX(SPCX.US)

- $Micron Tech(MU.US)

- $Intel(INTC.US)

- $Oracle(ORCL.US)

- $Tesla(TSLA.US)

Top stocks sold:

- $Apple(AAPL.US)

- $Broadcom(AVGO.US)

- $Adobe(ADBE.US)

- $Paypal(PYPL.US)

- $AMD(AMD.US)

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) announced partnerships with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to create independent AI compute financing platforms designed to mobilize more than $500 billion of third-party capital over time. The goal is to turn Nvidia compute and full-stack AI infrastructure into an investable asset class, helping fund the global buildout of AI factories while giving Nvidia customers access to large pools of capital at attractive rates. Jensen: “In AI, compute is revenue. NVIDIA compute is uniquely suited for this role. It is broadly adopted, flexible across models and workloads, fungible and transferable across customers and operators, and continuously improved through CUDA software. That is why we are bringing the world’s leading long-term capital providers together to independently underwrite AI infrastructure. These financing platforms will help customers access scarce compute at scale and build the DSX AI factories that will power every industry and country in the age of AI.”

2. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) released Muse Glimmer, a new 30B-parameter dense AI model with open weights that can run locally, with weights for Muse Spark 1.2 expected to follow soon. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg also said he believes everyone will eventually have a personal AI agent that understands them and what they care about.

3. Chinese humanoid robot makers accounted for more than 97% of global shipments in 1H26, with volumes more than tripling to 19,100 units. Agibot led the market with a 44% share, while industrial and commercial use cases made up over 70% of shipments. Unitree Robotics is also going public on the Shanghai Stock Exchange at a $9 billion valuation, with its IPO oversubscribed by retail investors by 8000%.

4. Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US) plans to unveil its next-generation Maia 300 AI chip in September, according to The Information, marking progress after a slower start for its in-house silicon program. Microsoft reportedly plans to expand internal use of Maia while also targeting major external customers. The move could give Microsoft more control over the AI infrastructure powering its services as demand for compute continues to surge.

5. Rocket Lab $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) reported Q2’26 revenue of $234M, slightly ahead of estimates of $231M, up 62% YoY. EPS came in at -$0.08 versus -$0.07 expected, while backlog reached a record $2.36B, up 137% YoY. For Q3, Rocket Lab guided revenue to $250M–$265M, above estimates of $239M, with non-GAAP gross margin expected at 35%–37%. Non-GAAP gross margin in Q2 was 41.5%, while net loss was $49.3M. Business highlights included the announced Iridium acquisition and the launch of GHOST, a globally deployable launch system. Management said backlog growth, combined with new Q3 deals, represents more than $1B in new contracts across launch and space systems, positioning Rocket Lab to become a self-launching, tier-1 space power.

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.6M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 1.9M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.2M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 1.2M contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 1.1M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 945K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 880K contracts, $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 803K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 778K contracts, and $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 704K contracts.

7. Hims & Hers $Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US) reported Q2’26 revenue of $753.2M, beating estimates of $700M, up 38% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $60.3M versus $47.2M expected, while subscribers rose 19% YoY to 2.891M. U.S. revenue grew 16% YoY to $621.8M, while Rest of World revenue surged 1,641% YoY to $131.4M, helped by the close of the Eucalyptus acquisition in June. For Q3, Hims guided revenue to $880M–$900M, well above estimates of $793M. For FY26, the company raised revenue guidance to $3.1B–$3.3B versus $2.93B expected, while reiterating increased conviction in its 2030 targets of at least $6.5B in revenue and $1.3B in adjusted EBITDA.

8. Earnings season is nearly complete, and results have been much stronger than expected. With almost 90% of S&P 500 companies reported, Q2 EPS is now projected to rise 30% YoY excluding investment mark-ups from Alphabet and Amazon, well above the 22% consensus forecast from July 1. Including those one-time gains, EPS growth jumps to nearly 50% YoY. Meanwhile, 76% of companies have beaten EPS expectations, matching last quarter’s beat rate, which was the highest since 2021.

9. Intel $Intel(INTC.US) announced a proposed $15B underwritten public offering of common stock, with proceeds intended for general corporate purposes, including CapEx and working capital. The company said customer demand remains strong, driven by major investment in AI compute, with growth opportunities across physical AI, purpose-built silicon, advanced packaging, and external wafers. Intel also expects to give underwriters a 30-day option to buy up to an additional $2.25B of common stock, while emphasizing that the raise is meant to support growth opportunities, maintain balance sheet strength, and preserve its investment-grade rating.

10. Trading volume across the 7 leveraged ETFs tied to $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) SK Hynix has collapsed nearly 90% to less than 100M shares/day after regulators raised the minimum cash deposit required to trade the products, effective July 31. The stock decline and tighter rules have shaken out retail investors who chased the rally, with roughly 1T won ($710M) in retail accounts facing forced liquidation in June and another 993B won ($700M) in July, the two largest forced-liquidation months this year. Margin loan balances have fallen to 27.4T won ($19.3B) as of August 4, the lowest level of the year. Morgan Stanley estimates the deleveraging process is now more than halfway complete, though foreign investors remain cautious after selling $30B in June, another $6.2B in July, and $4.3B so far in August.

11. Bank of America is sticking with its call for 75 bps of Fed rate hikes this year despite weaker labor data. U.S. payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, while prior months were revised down by another 103,000. The unemployment rate declined to 4.1%, wage growth slowed to 3.2%, and labor-force participation slipped. Even with hiring softening, BofA still expects the Fed to begin raising rates in September, arguing that inflation remains the central concern.

12. Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US) today said customers remain largely insensitive to memory pricing as data center demand continues to outstrip supply, with the company saying it cannot meet even half of current customer needs. Management also pointed to demand signals extending multiple years, though it did not provide a specific update to quarterly guidance.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Okay, so let’s talk about what Nvidia actually announced today…

I’ll present the bear and the bull case. I lean more bullish for reasons that are below, but I want to highlight both sides and what this means for the broader AI industry.

So, what did Jensen do today that required 6 of the most important bankers to sit with him live on national television?

Well, he just secured $500B of revenue for Nvidia.

The entire press release is centered around financing supply for NVIDIA compute with a “rich ecosystem of offtakers built upon NVIDIA’S CUDA platform.” The announcement literally ends by saying “this will create dedicated pools of capital at significant scale at attractive rates for NVIDIA customers.”

This move is not to increase supply for the demand that Broadcom, AMD, Google TPUs, etc. are seeing. This move may help all those companies find ways for more buyers to potentially finance their products as more money enters the ecosystem, but this is explicitly a move that Jensen is making to secure $500B of demand that will flood into Nvidia. It’s a very, very smart move.

How do I envision it playing out? Let’s say a neocloud needs $5B of capital to buy Nvidia GPUs. Now, Nvidia does $100B+ of FCF, they obviously could invest in that neocloud or just give that neocloud a loan to buy their chips. But, that ends up putting some strain on their balance sheet. Nvidia has an excellent balance sheet, just increased their dividend by 25X, and has committed $80B to buybacks.

So, instead of Nvidia taking on the financial risk, they essentially vet the neocloud and tell Goldman Sachs that this company deserves a $5B loan. Goldman trusts Jensen, they give the neocloud the money, the neocloud then spends it on Nvidia chips, eventually the ROI from that compute goes back to paying Goldman with interest, which is the entire business of a bank, lending capital to customers with an attractive risk profile to make a return on that capital.

The combined banks Nvidia is working with have 25T in assets. They are committing $500B of those assets for this project.

Okay…the bull and bear cases.

Bull:

- Obviously, great for Nvidia has they remove all financial risk but get financial institutions to make a loan that directly will go back to Nvidia in the form of chip sales.

- Should be good for memory, CPUs, optics, packaging, photonics, all parts of the semi stack. You can’t just buy Nvidia chips, you need to buy everything that goes into it and so all the semi names likely see their earnings continued to be sustained with hyperscaler capex and now a fresh 500B entering into the ecosystem. The market did not take those names up afterhours on this deal which likely means the market is still trying to figure out how bullish this is and if it’s sustainable.

- Compute as an asset class is the main thing that was discussed today which is what the financial institutions want: they would like to build futures/derivatives products on compute like they do for oil, crypto, real estate mortgages, etc. and create a new financial asset class that allows liquidity and fees to emerge. This is, in my opinion, the number one reason the banks are interested: the more compute, the more financial applications to speculate on that compute while trusting that Jensen knows how to allocate this 500B to continue progressing AI globally.

Bear:

- It’s circular financing. If no ROI on all the companies these banks put money into, even with Jensen’s approval, the loans don’t get paid back and if Nvidia has to promise to backstop those loans in someway, it could create a major risk to their balance sheet.

- Nvidia picks the wrong labs or clouds to invest in. Nvidia has been pretty good at allocating capital, but if they end up giving money to companies that will buy their chips but ultimately can’t execute (like having a ton of GPUs but not strong enough to set up datacenters quickly) then there will be questions around why those companies got the money which could lead the banks to not want to give out more loans, these are just MOUs, not confirmed agreements to begin allocating capital.

- Too much leverage in the system. If we do start to see financial derivatives of compute as an asset class, then there may be too many people speculating and with that speculation comes for the potential to have bad underwriting and essentially create too many products around compute that don’t actually provide any value which eventually collapses.

Ultimately, I lean on the bullish side because I believe there is an ROI coming from this compute. If there wasn’t, it’s just money switching hands back and forth with no real value. Ultimately, the market will have to see additional innovations in AI beyond just agentic inference which effectively has defined 2026 to see demand continuing to grow but also believe that the real value to GDP and productivity shows up in earnings growth (which we are seeing this year with S&P earnings) to make sense of this $500B entering into the ecosystem. If the ROI continues along with earnings growth, I would imagine the market feels like the fresh capital is going to only create more innovation and more growth which would be rewarded.

What do you think, bullish or bearish on this announcement?

Source: amit

semis weak again

photonics full on rugpull today

memory flat, neoclouds flat

what's green? software, hyperscalers, financials, healthcare, and defense names

honestly just feels like a simple shift with the names that were stuck all year now breaking out and the names that broke out are consolidating

if oil didn't spike 5% today then maybe more high beta names would have been green, but not really unhealthy price action with SPY trading at all time highs

Source: amit

BURRY:

- I BOUGHT MORE PUTS ON $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) PALANTIR FOR MARCH 2027 $100 STRIKES

- I THINK THE COMPANY'S SHARES ARE WORTH UNDER $1 IN THE LONG RUN

i understand those Q2 earnings were so good that Burry probably couldn't sleep for a few days but doubling down might not be the right strategy

bro is shorting reality at this point 💀

Source: amit

FINANCIAL TIMES:

- Nvidia is partnering with Apollo, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs and others on a massive $500B AI Financing Deal.

- Deal could be announced as soon as today

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Goldman Sachs(GS.US) $Apollo Global(APO.US) $Blackstone(BX.US)

looks like some more money is getting ready to help build out these datacenters

Source: amit