The Dow Jones hit a record high, so why am I being more cautious? — Don't chase highs at new highs.

Conclusion first: Last night, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the stock price index of 30 major US companies) hit a new all-time high, reaching 51,999 points. However, I've become even more cautious—because on the same day, the VIX index, which measures market fear, didn't fall but rose instead, while tech and chip stocks were still tumbling. This "new high" isn't due to increased optimism; it's money seeking safety. If this recent high makes you want to chase the rally, hear me out first—it might save you from paying tuition once.
Why did the Dow rise? The US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, oil prices plunged (Brent crude fell below $80), and everyone felt inflation pressure easing. So, money was taken out of overextended AI and chip stocks and moved into "cheap, stable" stocks like banks and infrastructure—since banks have a large weight in the Dow, it was pushed to a new high.
But there's a contradiction here. If the market were genuinely improving, the fear index VIX should have trended downward. Instead, it rose that day (+1.30%). Meanwhile, the Nasdaq fell 1.15%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped over 5%, and Intel plunged 8% in a single day. This indicates: the money isn't bullish on cyclical stocks; it's fleeing—fleeing the possibility of the Fed turning hawkish tonight (refusing to cut rates), fleeing the high inflation of 4.2% CPI. They aren't embracing value; they're just finding a place to hide.
So what to do (Discovery → Understanding → Trading): You already know why the Dow hit a new high; you also understand this rise is mainly driven by risk aversion, not genuine strength. The next step—don't chase the rally just because you see "all-time high," especially don't try to bottom-fish the chip stocks that just crashed. Tonight (Beijing time, early morning of 6/18), the new Fed Chairman Warsh will hold his first meeting and announce interest rate projections; volatility will be high before the outcome is clear. If you want to participate, wait for the meeting results and then enter in batches—don't go all in at once. Personally: I'm not chasing the Dow, not bottom-fishing chips; I'm keeping some gold to hedge against inflation.
(The above is personal opinion sharing and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; invest with caution.)

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