If you hold NVIDIA, Broadcom, or are hesitating whether to switch—this article will change your valuation logic for these three stocks.
I didn't move my positions today, but spent the entire afternoon researching one thing.Marvell rose 6% intraday to hit a new high, while Broadcom fell below $400, both triggered by the same news on the same day.
The news is: Google is in talks with Marvell to co-design two new AI chips—one memory processing unit and one next-generation TPU. Google's original TPU partner is Broadcom, and the two have collaborated for over a decade, just extending their contract to 2031 last month.
If you hold NVIDIA, Broadcom, or are hesitating about adding Marvell—the next three minutes will give you a new starting point for reassessment.
First, the background: What roles do these three companies play in the AI chip landscape?
NVIDIA (NVDA): Makes GPUs (graphics processing units, the mainstream chips for training AI large models, holding over 90% of the global AI training chip market). The biggest winner of the AI boom over the past three years.
Broadcom (AVGO): Designs ASICs (application-specific integrated circuits, custom chips for individual clients, more efficient but less versatile than GPUs) for mega-clients. Google's TPU (Tensor Processing Unit, Google's self-developed AI chip) was designed with Broadcom's help.
Marvell (MRVL): Also an ASIC design company, smaller than Broadcom with a market cap around $130 billion, and a major competitor to Broadcom.
Simply put: NVIDIA sells "off-the-shelf" products, while Broadcom and Marvell offer "custom-tailored" solutions. Over the past three years, big clients bought more "off-the-shelf" products because customization was too slow and expensive. This situation is changing today.
What happened today
The Information reported on Sunday (confirmed by Reuters and CNBC): Google and Marvell are discussing collaboration on two new chips. One is an MPU (memory processing unit, specifically addressing the data transfer bottleneck when running AI models), to be used alongside Google's existing TPU; the other is a next-generation TPU, dedicated to inference (the process of using a trained AI model to answer questions or generate content). The design is expected to be completed around 2027.
The key point is not that Google is replacing Broadcom. Broadcom's contract with Google is not terminated; the new TPU contract was just extended to 2031 last month. The key point is—Google is adding an additional supplier.
Relevance to you: This move tells all AI chip investors one thing—even a long-term client like Google, which has worked with Broadcom for over a decade, is no longer willing to bet its next-generation AI chips on a single company.
The valuation logic for the three stocks is being rewritten
NVIDIA (NVDA) fell 1.48% today. The drop wasn't large, but the semiconductor index SMH's 14-day winning streak finally ended today (-0.04%).
NVIDIA's moat won't collapse tomorrow. Training large models still requires its GPUs. But in the inference segment—scenarios like Google Search, YouTube, Gemini that run trillions of times daily—custom chips are already cheaper than GPUs. That's why Google is looking to Marvell for an "inference TPU."
Relevance to you: If you hold NVIDIA, don't rush to sell today—but over the next two years, you should focus not on its growth in the training segment, but on whether its inference market share is being gradually eroded.
Broadcom (AVGO) fell 1.7% to $399.63 today, breaking below the psychological barrier of $400.
Broadcom signed three deals this month (Google 2031, Anthropic 3.5GW, Meta 2029 1GW), rising from $360 to $406, a 21% gain in two weeks. The market narrative for it was "the exclusive winner in AI custom chips." Today, Google itself tore off the "exclusive" label.
Relevance to you: If you hold Broadcom, ask yourself—was one of the assumptions in your original valuation for buying it that "Google's new TPU can only be made by Broadcom"? If so, that assumption is no longer valid today. Broadcom is still a good company, but its pricing premium needs a discount. The $400-$380 range is likely to see a tug-of-war for a while.
Marvell (MRVL) rose as much as 6% intraday to $145, hitting a record high.
Marvell is up 60% year-to-date and nearly 50% in April alone. Its forward P/E (based on earnings expectations for the next 12 months) is now 33.35x, even higher than Broadcom's 27.84x. The reason for its premium needs to shift from the previous "strong optics + NVIDIA investment" to today's "first choice for mega-clients looking to diversify risk"—the latter reason can support a higher valuation.
Relevance to you: If you don't have a position in Marvell yet, chasing it now carries relatively high risk—the stock price already has a 16% gap from analysts' target price ($125). A more prudent approach is to wait until after Google's Q1 earnings report (April 29) tomorrow to decide. If TPU business disclosures exceed expectations, today's gain in Marvell isn't enough; if they fall short, half of today's +6% is just false hope.
My judgment
Today's event is clear in direction but not urgent in pace.
In terms of direction: The first observable crack has appeared in NVIDIA's moat, Broadcom's exclusivity premium needs to be digested, and Marvell's bullish story has gained a longer-term pillar. This trend won't play out in a week or two, but it has begun.
In terms of pace: I don't recommend chasing Marvell or bottom-fishing Broadcom today. After Google's Q1 earnings report tomorrow, the disclosures on TPU business will provide clearer signals. Deciding on the direction for adding positions then will offer better value.
I didn't make any moves myself today and will consider adjusting my Broadcom position after the earnings report tomorrow.
Three perspectives for three types of holdings: NVIDIA holders—no need to sell in a hurry, watch the inference market share; Broadcom holders—recalculate valuation assumptions, focus on Google's earnings tomorrow; Marvell holders—gains are overextended, wait for earnings before judging. Those without these three stocks—no need to force yourself into this theme just to chase it.
$Broadcom(AVGO.US) $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US)
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