无价值只投机

The leaders in pharmaceutical innovation have been truly love-hate recently. Innovent and WuXi AppTec keep getting positive news, and foreign investors are buying enthusiastically, but the price action shows no real improvement... BeiGene, on the other hand, gave some face with a slight rise, and many are probably just passively waiting for the options expiry. CanSino and RemeGen have wild swings—some get caught up in the frenzy and end up spinning in circles, while the bullish breakout I’ve been waiting for still hasn’t come. Honestly, whether you buy or not now comes with a built-in exhaustion buff. Is it worth it long-term? Still agonizing over it.

The pharmaceutical ETF is showing off again, with LLYX directly up 7% in a big rally, and Eli Lilly is also unstoppable. Inflation? What inflation? Their acquisition news caused an explosion as soon as it was released!

NVOX isn't backing down either—how many more years can the Wegovy story last?

Meanwhile, UNHG.US hit the brakes hard. Now, funds are speculating on 2x leveraged pharma ETFs—who dares to go all in? Only those with a strong heart can handle this thrill!

$Q32 Bio(QTTB.US) Seeing this turnover, I'm also stunned😭 Most likely the selling pressure is too high today, emotions are running high, and the volatility pressure is expected to be quite strong tomorrow

Meituan-W (03690) rose 10 points yesterday and is doing well today.

The market is closed, let me elaborate:

Why do I think this time both the height and sustainability can be expected? Because judging from the timing and intensity of the policies, it can basically be considered as "reckless" and "at any cost" to pull up the stock market. I even think that from the wording of the policies, the importance of the stock market may come before the real estate market. Obviously, the decision-makers believe that the problems in the real estate market are much more complicated and can only be delayed, not solved fundamentally.

Since it is an "artificial leveraged bull market," it must have its historical mission. I think one of the main missions is to transition from supply-side to demand-side reforms (of course, there is also support for technological innovation and the expansion of central state-owned enterprises). At the same time, it will balance wealth distribution to a certain extent: central state-owned enterprises get rich first, increase dividends, and then drive the private sector to get rich later, which is the Western "helicopter money" model advocated by some economists, but we have GSY

In addition, judging from past bull markets, none of them were led by the stocks that rose in the first few days all the way to the end. On the contrary, because too many people rushed into the so-called "obvious targets" in the first few days, the chips were ruined, leading to too much pressure to close positions for a long time, such as the liquor, real estate, and some consumer stocks in the past few days. I think it is fundamentally difficult to reverse. The real fat fish often appears in the second or third wave of opportunities. Calm hunters need to constantly observe the chip structure and changes in fundamentals.

Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had two bullish days, but it has nothing to do with you—it's still down overall.

Take a look at whether Huawei or Xiaomi sells more globally.

Let's take it to the extreme. Meituan is issuing dollar bonds with a 4.5% interest rate while conducting buybacks

The money borrowed is in RMB, while Alibaba has RMB but lacks USD...

6 years as an amateur and 10 years as a professional investor

Never before at the national level

Has the stock market been mentioned so frequently and directly as today

Directly stating that the stock market should return to early 2019

Those who experienced the full bear market of 2018

Former Premier LH directly named and fully supported the stock market

One sentence triggered an 800-point rebound

The leading financial giant PICC tripled in value

…………………………………………

Swap facility of 500 billion

One is not enough, there will be a second and third

Can only be used to invest in the stock market

Comrade PGS is almost buying stocks personally

…………………………………………

The business wave of 1978 created the first batch of "10,000-yuan households" in history

The dual-track price system of 1984 created the "profiteers"

The 1998 housing reform created "wealth through housing"

The 2005 equity division reform bull market enriched a group of people

…………………………………………

A person's life is too short

Opportunities for sudden wealth from national policies come at most once or twice

Those who bought houses in 1998 and those who bought in 2021 are already two different classes

Cherish it

$Tianfeng Securities(SH601162)$ $Pacific Securities(SH601099)$ $Tianma Group(SZ000627)$

6 years as an amateur and 10 years as a professional investor

Never before at the national level

Has the stock market been mentioned so frequently and directly as today

Directly stating that the stock market should return to early 2019

Those who experienced the full bear market of 2018

Former Premier LH directly named and fully supported the stock market

One sentence triggered an 800-point rebound

The leading financial giant PICC tripled

…………………………………………

Swap facility of 500 billion

One is not enough, there will be a second and third

Can only be used to invest in the stock market

Comrade PGS is almost buying stocks personally

…………………………………………

The business wave of 1978 created the first batch of "10,000-yuan households" in history

The dual-track price system of 1984 created the "profiteers"

The commercial housing reform of 1998 created "wealth through housing"

The bull market of the 2005 share reform made a group of people rich

…………………………………………

A person's life is too short

There are at most one or two chances to get rich from national policies

Those who bought houses in 1998 and those who bought in 2021 are already two different classes

Cherish it

$Tianfeng Securities(SH601162)$ $Pacific Securities(SH601099)$ $Tianma Group(SZ000627)$

Reflections on financial news:

1. The negative policies for the banking sector have been fully priced in. Various measures like RRR cuts, interest rate reductions, and rate adjustments, including the adjustment of existing mortgage rates, have a neutral impact on bank performance. After these operations, the net interest margin of banks is expected to stabilize, meaning there will be no further negative impact on the future performance of bank stocks—this signals that all negatives have been exhausted.

2. On the positive side for the banking sector, improving the mortgage mechanism and the statement that banks and clients will negotiate independently based on market principles reflect future respect for commercial banks' market-driven pricing autonomy. This is a major positive for commercial banks' operations. This respect for market-driven pricing is also evident in comments about the decline in government bond yields. A market economy must respect the autonomy of commercial entities in pricing and decision-making, as well as their commercial contracts.

3. A positive for the six major banks. Plans to increase core tier-1 capital for the six large commercial banks are a significant boost to their stock prices and indicate further market share growth. The banking sector's business expansion is constrained by core tier-1 capital adequacy ratios. If the six major banks see substantial increases in their core tier-1 capital adequacy ratios, they will have the capital to aggressively expand their businesses, further squeezing smaller banks' market shares. Currently, the stock prices of the six major banks are significantly below their net asset values per share. How will core tier-1 capital be increased for these banks? Who will provide it? This is the biggest positive for their stock prices.

4. A series of RRR cuts, interest rate reductions, and rate adjustments benefit the stock market and the banking sector but do little for housing prices. The real estate issue stems from oversupply, housing bubbles, and aging properties, so prices will continue to fall. Those who prepay mortgages will still do so because deposit rates are set to drop again, and RMB asset yields will decline—keeping money in banks is worse than paying off loans. Mortgage transfers are not a positive for homeowners. Once a mortgage is transferred, banks will reassess the property value, reducing the loanable amount. The interest savings are minimal, and homeowners may even be required to prepay part of the principal, turning them into victims of poor decisions. Thus, mortgage transfers benefit banks but hurt homeowners. $SSE Composite Index(SH000001)$ $Industrial and Commercial Bank of China(SH601398)$ $China Merchants Bank(SH600036)$

$Tesla(TSLA.US) Tonight is the last chance to escape!!!! Run

Repost: Generally not optimistic about Xiaomi's current car manufacturing venture; 1. Currently, pure electric vehicles in China are mostly sold at a loss (BYD and Li Auto's profitability is largely due to hybrid models). It can be predicted that Xiaomi will face significant challenges in achieving profitability from car sales in the next three years. 2. Achieving economies of scale is difficult in the auto industry compared to smartphones, as production ramp-up is much slower. Reducing costs through scale will be hard within three years. 3. Currently, profitable automakers like Tesla, Li Auto, and BYD all have hundreds of billions in capital reserves. Xiaomi's existing 100 billion RMB is not a significant advantage. 4. Xiaomi's smartphone business is under heavy pressure from Huawei and Honor (both have made strong comebacks). 5. Xiaomi's smartphone gross margins are very low, with most revenue coming from high-margin ads. This ad-based business model will be hard to replicate in the auto industry. 6. In smartphones, Samsung's position is akin to BYD in autos. While Samsung exited the Chinese market for various reasons, BYD won't face this issue. 7. Xiaomi was only slightly behind Apple, HTC, and Samsung in smartphones, but in autos, it's outside the top 10.

继续看好 ai，但是英伟达得稀缺性可能要打折了，所以空英伟达多台积电比较靠谱

拼多多确实存在被欧盟罚款风险

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) 今晚 400 有戏吗？大家觉得现在这个价位，安全边际如何？

四月份，住户贷款减少了 2411 亿元，其中短期贷款减少了 1255 亿元，中长期贷款减少了 1156 亿元。相比去年同期，减少了 2170 亿元，但比去年短期贷款减少了 1565 亿元有所改善。企（事）业单位贷款增加了 6839 亿元，较去年同期增加了 5784 亿元。其中，短期贷款减少了 1099 亿元，中长期贷款增加了 6669 亿元。与去年相比，增加了 2652 亿，成为贷款增长的主要来源。票据融资方面，增加了 1280 亿元，但与去年增加了 5148 亿相比有所下降。第三方金融机构贷款增加了 2134 亿元，较去年增加了 1379 亿。

这些年，不少股票被称作是 10 倍股，但最终大部分股票都变得黔驴技穷，除了中远海控 H 股。就像潮水退去后，裸泳的人被曝光一样，只有中远海控依靠着极低的估值、高超的业绩以及丰厚的分红率才勉强挺过来了。在过去几年的热门股、10 倍股中，还有哪些股票能像中远海控那样少受损失呢？如果说要选最耀眼的股票，中远海控肯定榜上有名。不过你认为哪个行业会是下一个增长点呢？最近特别热门的话题是环保。听说中特股票估值已经大涨了，你最看好哪个方向？ #中远海控 (SH601919)# #软控股份 (SZ002073)# #赛轮轮胎 (SH601058)#

据媒体报道，从 5 月底开始，宁杭高铁、沪宁城际、济青客专、南广高铁等多条线路的高铁或城际列车也将采用动态票价。这意味着，以前高铁的车票价是固定的，无论乘坐的时间长短，车票价格都是一样的。

而现在，如果你在时间节点选择得好，乘坐时间短的列车价格就会涨，当然，价格也可能降低。反之，如果你在时间节点选择不理想的车次，价格也会相应下降。

在我看来，例如现在的京沪高铁，乘坐时间短的车票价格确实比以前贵许多。以前，京沪高铁二等座价格都是固定的 553 元，而现在，车票价格最高已经超过了 660 元。

不过，有些车次的价格也确实有下调的现象。例如工作日的行程，这一天只有 1-2 班车，票价为 526 元，乘坐完之后已经是晚上 11 点多了。这对于那些需要抵达目的地并更换交通工具的旅客来说可能有些麻烦，因为即使你顺利地打车或坐地铁，到了家也至少要晚上 12 点了。

总的来看，调整后总体涨价的车次比降价的车次多。不过仍然有一些车次的票价是不变的，比如说 553 元。总的来看，铁路部门在票价不发生实质变化的情况下，依然能够增加收入。

当然，很多人可能会说，如果我着急的话，我肯定愿意多花一点钱来搭乘更快的车次。反之，如果不着急，那么就买慢车来省钱。但是，实际情况并不总是如此理想。很多时候，我们需要出行是临时决定的，而节假日期间更是需要在高铁上抢票，往往只能抢到剩下的少数慢车票。

例如公司通知你在明天出差，那么只能买剩下的慢车票了。毕竟，快车票早已被预订一空。