GJALIBA@EP2612A

Another exciting daily market talk!

Alibaba’s share placement was oversubscribed by sovereign wealth funds. I suspect Temasek or GIC could be among the investors! 🤔😆

But interestingly, Michael Burry isn’t on board.

He sold his entire Alibaba position and bought JD.com instead 😉. What do you think ? Was that a smart move?

This week is a huge. Jackson Hole Symposium will likely bring much more needed clarity on Fed rate policy. I expect volatility! 😆😆😆

I also watch Nvidia closely. Its performance could push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh all-time highs! 📈🚀

$BABA-W(09988.HK)

Alibaba is launching a massive HK$80 billion (~US$10.2 billion) offshore share placement. all proceeds go straight into full‑stack AI infrastructure! 🤖

⚠️ The Trade‑off:

1️⃣ Dilution: Existing shareholders face a modest 3.3%–3.5% dilution (~3.4% expected) to EPS and share count.

2️⃣ The Smart Move: Raising equity instead of debt means no extra leverage or interest burden on the balance sheet.

That protects operating cash flow

➡️ Critical at a time when AI spending is up ~75% YoY! 💪

Bottom Line: It’s a deliberate choice

➡️ Fund huge AI expansion without hurting credit health.

Short‑term dilution, long‑term strategic bet. 🎯

📊 Full details in the infographic!

Not financial advice. Do your own DD.

$BABA-W(09988.HK)Ready for a very red Monday !

On August 23, 2026, Alibaba Group announced a proposed HK$80 billion (US$10.2 billion) equity placement of newly issued ordinary shares in Hong Kong. This massive primary follow-on offering marks the largest-ever primary follow-on offering by a Hong Kong-listed company and ranks as the world’s third-largest primary follow-on share sale of 2026.

Alibaba is selling approximately 710 million ordinary shares priced at HK$112.70 per share.

$Alibaba(BABA.US) is out of the water, and caramel popcorn is waving at me! Oh my god! It's Saturday.

Alibaba’s 9% revenue beat looks encouraging, but net income fell as heavy AI CAPEX weighs on profits. That’s a bet on future growth, not a problem yet—but returns still need to prove themselves. I’d hold if already invested, but stay on the sidelines rather than chase the stock now.

After earnings report, Futu was up 10% most of premarket, before giving up all gains upon market opening. Supports the hypothesis that American investors take Chinese ADRs very cautiously. not too different for Alibaba, I don't expect too much love from them.

Well as much as the narrative keeps pointing to yields and I agree yields are a sticky point and that is why the Feds are doing a ‘stealthy YCC’. (Look at what Bessent just added to what he said the day earlier. I mean he is hinting at YCC without saying it. Those who get the hint will plan accordingly. Those who are waiting for a clear cut announcement and definition will be behind the curve. Even crypto is hinting at something. Hint: They flourish with liquidity. And look at USD. It is devaluing in response. Price action precedes narratives.)

Again, I am just sharing my opinion. To the ‘textbookists’, let’s agree to disagree. Peace! 😊

Jackson hole is a key point but not sure what stuff Fed will say

Crypto was the buzz just when Trump took office and it took a bow and languished in the dark shadows for the most of the year. Now the president is back in action again to pump it up again such that funds have another avenue to rotate around, scything the retail FOMO hords.

AI infrastructure and semiconductor-related names such as SK Hynix, Micron and Lumentum continued to outperform, showing that investor demand for AI exposure remains strong despite concerns over higher capex and valuations.

Alibaba's results also highlighted this trend cloud and AI revenue surged, but profitability came under pressure as investment spending accelerated.

With Treasury yields rising again and Jackson Hole approaching, volatility could remain elevated in the near term

📌 Last session supposed many 👀 at the hottest hits for this month. I also got it though few months ago was searching what to invest. If the prices came tumbling downward, I will also consider to buy more, not worrying about the short term swings as the purpose of it is indeed worth more meaning than just AI Era as we will see how it could further transformed in the medical sciences too, another TGIF hope to close it steadily to mark a good week! It is Friday baby! 👏🏻🆙📈🆒🆕💊💫🌟🌟

Interesting that the news are not quite reporting the surge in the crypto markets and the crypto related stocks. Shall see if the rally can be sustained.

Daily market talk discussion is here!

Here are incremental takeaways from Alibaba's post-earnings small-group meeting. Highlights below.

1) Most importantly, cloud revenue growth is guided to re-accelerate to ~50% next quarter, with further acceleration thereafter. This alleviates concerns around ROI.

2) Losses at AI Lab should narrow. But they will likely remain around RMB 10bn per quarter.

3) ARR from AI-related revenue was RMB 49.5bn this quarter (quarterly revenue × 4). The Sep quarter ARR could exceed $10bn.

4) Excluding the impact of consolidating T-Head (Pingtouge), cloud margins would be higher, and the path to a 20% long-term OPM would be faster. This underscores improving profitability in core cloud.

5) On revenue sharing for open-source models, payouts to model developers are minimal. Aside from small splits on models like K3, revenue in most cases accrues 100% to Alibaba.

6) Management roughly expects FCF to turn positive by FY29. This implies better cash conversion ahead.

7) The Intl commerce business was profitable this quarter. This marks a notable milestone.

Other items broadly in line with prior expectations include the following. Details as follows.

1) The MaaS annualized revenue target remains RMB 30bn by year-end and could be achieved earlier. It is currently around RMB 16bn.

2) Unit economics (UE) in the flash-sales biz. will keep improving. Management maintains the expectation of achieving profitability by FY29.

3) E-commerce CMR and EBITDA growth will improve next quarter. No specific magnitude was provided.

Overall, the tone in the small-group session was more upbeat and explicit than in the main meeting. Core messages: cloud growth and margins should keep moving higher, while broader commerce growth and profitability should bottom and begin to improve, likely modestly.

Dolphin Research's expected combo of e-commerce stabilization plus an AI offensive was effectively confirmed by the company. That strengthens the bullish case.