0902 ｜Dolphin Research Focus:

🐬 Macro/Industry

1. The U.S. and Iran exchanged fire twice over three days, while Trump signaled a hardline stance, saying a decisive strike was in the works. Fed Gov. Michael Barr said the Fed must be ready to hike if inflation does not ease. Geopolitics and higher-for-longer bets drove a sharp oil rally, lifted inflation risk, strengthened rate-hike pricing, and weighed on global stocks and bonds.

🐬 Single Stocks

1.$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

Xiaomi will hold its fall launch at 19:00 on Sep 7, unveiling three range-extended SUVs, Pengcheng N70Pro/N70Max/N90Max. It will also debut the Xiaomi 18Fold foldable smartphone and Xiaomi Pad 9 Pro Max, with the in-house 'Xuanjie O3' AI flagship SoC shipping first on these devices. The event spans both autos and consumer electronics. Putting O3 into the in-car foldable flagship is a key validation for its in-house chip, while the auto lineup continues to broaden; competition in range extenders is intense, making Pengcheng pricing the swing factor.

2.$TENCENT(00700.HK)

Tencent launched the WorkBuddy open platform, making AI agent capabilities available to developers and industry partners, and onboarding multiple ecosystem collaborators across verticals. This marks a shift in Tencent's office AI from internal use to ecosystem co-building. An open approach should expand agent deployment scenarios and scale calls to the Hunyuan model. It will also intensify competition in China's office AI agent track.

3.$BABA-W(09988.HK)

Alibaba updated its flagship LLM to Qwen 3.8‑Max, with targeted upgrades in coding. It jumped on the CodeArena WebDev frontend leaderboard, taking the global top spot in frontend coding. After targeted training for Coding and Cowork, the new Qwen 3.8‑Max improved overall performance. Strength in coding and office aligns with the Cloud + AI monetization path, boosting the Tongyi ecosystem, developer stickiness, and enterprise cloud usage, helping capture developer and enterprise dev clients.

4.$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

Reports indicate Google will release the Gemini 3.8 Flash model on Wed, an iteration of its lightweight workhorse model. The Flash family underpins scaled deployment, and the new version targets high-speed inference peers. This iteration will intensify global competition among lightweight models and directly pressure cloud providers' inference businesses.

5.$Meta Platforms(META.US)

Meta launched Muse Voice Transcribe, its first real-time audio-aware transcription model. The product targets social and agent voice-interaction use cases. Meta can validate internally via its social apps, while external rollout will face competition from established voice vendors.

6. Dolphin Research: Earnings and Calls to Watch

Dell: 'NVDA supply ramp? Dell: The good times can get even better' and 'Dell (Trans): AI backlog at $95bn, no growth guide for next year for now'

Nio: 'Soft guide drags; can Nio still stage a comeback?' and 'Nio (Trans): GPM held at 18.5%, monthly sales to top 40k in Q4'

🐬 Top Gainers by Sector

A-shares: Tobacco and consumer finance led. Consumer goods retailers also outperformed.

HK: Furniture/home/decoration materials retailers and specialized consumer services led. Residential builders were also strong.

U.S.: Agricultural products and fertilizers & pesticides advanced. Ag machinery gained as well.

🐬 Watchlist for Tomorrow

1) Broadcom to report earnings. Due tomorrow.

2) U.S. Jul trade balance (US$ bn) and Aug Challenger job cuts (10k). Also the Aug S&P Global Services PMI final and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

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