0827 ｜Key Focus by Dolphin Research:

🐬 Macro/Industry

1. US Jul PCE rose 3.7% YoY, while core PCE was 3.3% YoY, both in line. Real personal consumption, adjusted for inflation, was nearly flat MoM, showing clear cooling from earlier strength, and inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target. Sticky inflation alongside signs of softer consumption complicates the Fed's policy choices. After the release, UST yields edged higher and US equities came under pressure. The market now turns to Jackson Hole communications for guidance on the rate path.

🐬 Single Stocks

1.$Z.AI(02513.HK)

Zhipu AI confirmed the ownership of the previously mysterious model Ox Alpha 'Niulai'. It runs on a 100k-node cluster of domestic accelerator cards, delivers standout programming benchmark results, and is scaling rapidly in usage, validating large-scale adaptation of domestic compute to large models. This marks a domestic milestone of deploying LLMs at the 100k-card scale and reduces reliance on overseas compute. Focus now shifts to commercialization capability. The domestic compute software-hardware stack still needs refinement, and fully replacing high-end overseas chips in the near term remains difficult.

2.$BIDU-SW(09888.HK)

BIDU announced it will complete its conversion to a dual-primary listing on HKEX on Sept 1, with no new share issuance. Post-conversion, it could be added to Stock Connect as early as Sept 7, enabling mainland investors to trade BIDU's HK shares directly. Dual-primary status opens the Southbound Stock Connect channel, potentially bringing incremental southbound flows and improving HK liquidity. BIDU rose over 5% today.

3.$Apple(AAPL.US)

Apple announced a launch event at 1 a.m. Beijing time on Sept 10 to debut its first foldable iPhone and the iPhone 18 Pro series, marking the first major product event under new CEO 'Tenus'. The foldable iPhone represents a major form-factor shift, and the market expects it to expand the high-end foldable segment. However, pricing, yield rates, and actual user experience will be the key variables driving unit sales and supply-chain momentum.

4.$Meta Platforms(META.US)

Meta reached a settlement with multiple US states over lawsuits alleging teen addiction harms from social media, with maximum payments of about $18 bn to fund teen mental health initiatives, pending court approval. The large settlement removes part of a long-standing policy overhang but will pressure near-term profits. The case also underscores a broad trend toward tighter content regulation for overseas social platforms. Rising compliance costs are likely to become the norm.

5.$Amazon(AMZN.US)

Amazon placed an additional order for 2 mn GPUs from Nvidia to expand its own AI cloud infrastructure, doubling down on generative AI cloud initiatives. Global cloud vendors continue stockpiling compute, confirming strong momentum in AI infrastructure buildout. Large orders further benefit the Nvidia supply chain and signal an intensifying AI compute arms race among cloud providers.

6. Earnings and Calls on Dolphin's Radar

NVDA: 'Nvidia: Another 70% Next Year? The 'Central Bank of Compute' Is Running Hot', 'Nvidia (Trans): Cloud Backlogs Top RMB 2 tn, Demand to Grow 70%+ Next Year'

MiniMax: 'Too Pessimistic — MiniMax Is Not That Bad', 'MiniMax (Trans): ARR $800 mn+, M3 Post-Mortem and Mea Culpa'

CRM: 'Salesforce: Is the 'AI Replacement' Thesis Falsified? Can Legacy Software Stage a Comeback?', 'Salesforce (Trans): Claudeforce GA in Sept'

Li Auto: 'Li Auto: Range-Extender Ace Misfires, Guidance Stumbles into 'Wishful Thinking'?', 'Li Auto (Trans): GPM 9.4%, No Price Hike Passed to Users'

GU MING: 'GU MING: Subsidies Fading, Coffee Takes the Baton — The 'Costco of Tea' Still Delivers'

🐬 Top Gaining Sectors

A-shares: Hardware storage and peripherals, industrial gases, semiconductor makers.

HK: System software, HR and employment services, home furnishing and renovation materials retail.

US: Communication equipment, electronic components, oil and gas refining and marketing.

🐬 Watchlist for Tomorrow

1) Earnings: Meituan, MRVL, BYD, MINISO, Biren, BYD.

2) US Aug 1-yr inflation expectations (final).

Risk disclosure and disclaimer: Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure