MS-ZAI @EC2701A

Let's talk about domestic large models: With the release of kimi3 and the subsequent pullback of deepseek4 pro, it might be time to adjust our rankings of domestic LLM teams. Additionally, $Z.AI(02513.HK) is still very strong, roughly on par with kimi3. I bought a small position for 1000 yuan. I bet that the 'Niu Lai' large model, which has received excellent anonymous test feedback over the past two days, belongs to Zhipu.

$Z.AI(02513.HK) What method does the market maker use to exit? Passive ETFs should be the best bagholders.

Powell may not have an FOMC talk, but his recent QnA at a University sparks interests and influenced the market. A simple comment that inflation outlook in check and there's no need to hike rates due to oil shock has the market reacting positively. Let's see how the situation pans out in the next few weeks

Zhipu 2H25 First Take: a sixfold move in a quarter as the model star stock steals the show. Headline growth reads as a 99% surge in 2H25 revenue, but the underlying picture is fairly muted.

The market clearly priced in an upgrade from on-premise deployments to a standardized, cloud-based sales model. Execution is underway and broadly in line with expectations.

The main issue lies in GPM mix: while on-premise deals face less brutal price competition than open-access APIs, delivery intensity drove up costs. As a result, this higher-margin line, accounting for 70% of 2H25 revenue, saw GPM fall from 59% in 1H to 44% in 2H.

On opex, compute investment was split roughly evenly between halves and remains outsized, totaling RMB 3.2bn for the year, vs. just RMB 720mn of FY25 revenue. The imbalance is stark.

Against this backdrop, movements in the other two expense buckets — sales expenses declining in absolute terms and G&A still growing fast — are footnotes. For 2H overall, relative to the share price rally, there was little in the print worth highlighting.

That said, the market at current valuations appears indifferent to model losses, focusing instead on the scarcity of model 'intelligence' and token consumption.

Since Lunar New Year, the company rolled out the GLM-5 base model, the agent-focused Turbo model for 'Lobster', and the coding-oriented GLM-5.1. Its intelligence benchmark is aligned with top overseas models like Claude Opus. More importantly, Zhipu has been raising prices, with subscription plans up ~30–50% and API rates up over 80%.

Since mid-Feb, the 3x rally already reflects optimism about the business model upgrade. Dolphin Research is more keen to see post-Feb trends in token consumption after the new models and price hikes, but the company did not disclose this in the release; we will watch for color on the call. $Z.AI(02513.HK)

Fed is in a dilemma. On one hand, he is cautious of rising inflation due to wars & tariff, on the other hand, he is watching unemployment rate in the labor market. Do nothing is the best current strategy for the Fed, till events becomes clearer. Singapore is pivoting to partner other trading blocks to increase trade export to like minded countries. And fast adoption of AI to enhance productivity to address rising cost of doing business here. Is all hands on deck. Singapore has to be ahead of the curve due to fast changing political and economical landscape changes to keep growth on track.

Fed’s dovish is shifting short term sentiment, creating a tactical risk on window. Not a full pivot yet,so stay long quality growth but keep macro hedges in place

Tesla TERAFAB – Moving into ultra scale compute fits the AI capex boom, where global demand is surging. For now, it’s a high beta narrative play, with execution risk still the main swing factor.

Singapore retains solid growth supported by strong manufacturing and AI driven exports, showing underlying resilience despite external risks.

Musk is again promising the sun and moon; selling a dream, forever over promising and shifting goal posts. With the geopolitical event causing headache and pocket-aches to investors, I don't think anyone would be in the mood to be an all-in bull right now...

7 days into negotiation between US and IRAN, but no news of any breakthrough. The war will be long and the blockade will last. Start being defensive people!

As the war continues, oil will be in short supply and cause Singapore to suffer. Yes we do have 6 months of reserve. But one that used up, we are in the same situation as other South East Asia counties... So be worried peeps!

As usual anything from tesla is to take with a pinch of salt. Elon Musk have always over promise but under deliver. Only when it really launches then believe in the narrative!

As the war continues and oil prices remain high, this will naturally cause inflation to tick higher and hence higher interest. Best to brace yourself for heavy repricing!

The tense situation in the Middle East poses a downside risk to Singapore's 3.0% GDP forecast. Singapore's reliance on crude oil processing means that tensions in the Gulf will undoubtedly have a significant impact on its GDP, and stock market fluctuations are inevitable. However, Singapore's position as Asia's top economy also highlights its importance.

The Fed has no choice do they? A faltering labour force in a country which is spending unnecessarily and has to refinance its books soon? Superficially high oil prices are inflationary. However it will be deflationary if it destroys consumers’ spending power - less money to buy other things = demand drop across the board. A smart economist will see beyond the ‘high oil=inflation’ narrative!