UBS: Micron & Memory
> BM Pricing & Premiums: Industry blended HBM ASP is up approximately 79% year-over-year, with HBM4E likely reaching >$30/GB.> DRAM & NAND Contract Pricing:For DDR, industry C3Q contract pricing (including LTAs) is modeled up 20% Q/Q, with MU specifically modeled up 20% Q/Q in C3Q and 11% Q/Q in C4Q.For NAND, industry C3Q contract pricing is modeled up 20% Q/Q (down from 28% prior), and for MU specifically up 23% Q/Q (down from 35% prior).Market Dynamics> DRAM Tightness: HBM supply and demand have tightened beyond prior expectations, specifically for HBM4 and HBM4E, led by persistent supply tightness.> HBM Consumption & Adjustments: C2027 HBM consumption is increasing from 58.7B Gb to 61.5B Gb, and MU HBM ASP is now modeled up 72% year-over-year (vs. +61% prior) with broadly unchanged bit shipments of ~11.65B Gb.> NAND & SSD Strength: Stronger-than-expected server/storage SSD demand is offsetting weakness in PCs and smartphones, keeping the demand backdrop constructive.> Competitor Impact: CXMT's DRAM bit supply share is expected to rise from ~7% in C2025 to ~9% in C2027, though capacity expansions are viewed as somewhat overstated due to yield and technology gaps. Meanwhile, YMTC is shifting incremental capacity toward DRAM over NAND, extending the NAND pricing cycle.$Micron Tech(MU.US) $DRAM $EWY $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US)
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Apple testing Chinaโs CXMT memory chips signals a pragmatic supply-chain pivot as AI demand squeezes DRAM supply. My stance: strategically positive for Apple, but a geopolitical risk. CXMTโs rising capacity could pressure Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix on pricing.
โ๏ธ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk โ Singapore Marks National Day as STI Extends Its StreakSingapore's market is closed today for National Day (observed), but Friday left plenty to talk about: $FTSE Straits Times Index(STI.SG) notched its 9th straight weekly gain, with $DBS(D05.SG) extendin...
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โก ๐๐๐๐๐๐: $Apple(AAPL.US) Apple Has Been Testing Memory Chips From Chinaโs Cxmt Across Product Lines Including Iphones and Macbooks - WSJ - $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US)
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I've mapped the entire Wall Street bear playbook on AI names:
Have your favorite institution/media insert one of these name down below:1. < ______ [GPUs, Transcivers, MLCC, Memory...] are a commodity set to crash> 2. < ______ [YMTC, CXMT, Dongshan...] from China will flood the market > 3. < ______ [Micron, Nvidia, ...] from unverifiable channel checks is facing issues > 4. < ______ [Kospi, Sivers, ...] is a bubble like the ____ [2007, 2021] crash> 5. <____ [1,2,3, ...] unexpected rate hikes this year>6. < _____ [Google, Nvidia, Deepseek ...] optimization removes the need of this!> in a new headline, and it's ready to go! - H
โก ๐๐๐๐๐๐: CXMT Weighs Second Beijing DRAM Fab Amid AI Memory Boom - Reuters - $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $Seagate Tech(STX.US) $Western Digital(WDC.US)
๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐น๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐๐:โค ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ง is considering building a ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ fab in Beijing.โค Company is in financing talks with Beijing-backed technology investors.โค Expansion follows CXMT's record $๐ด.๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป IPO last month.โค Proposed Beijing fab would be located in ๐ฌ๐ถ๐๐ต๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ด technology hub.โค CXMT is seeking at least ยฅ๐ฒ๐ฌ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป in local government support.โค Shanghai and Hefei expansion projects could double capacity above ๐ฒ๐ฌ๐ฌ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ wafers monthly.โค CXMT currently operates ๐๐ต๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐ฎ-๐ถ๐ป๐ฐ๐ต DRAM fabs in China.โค AI infrastructure demand continues to drive global ๐บ๐ฒ๐บ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ถ๐ฝ shortages.โค A leading-edge DRAM fab typically requires more than $๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป to build.๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ ๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐:โค Highlights China's push to expand domestic ๐๐ ๐บ๐ฒ๐บ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ manufacturing capacity.โค Increased CXMT output could intensify competition with ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐บ๐๐๐ป๐ด, ๐ฆ๐ ๐๐๐ป๐ถ๐ , and ๐ ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ป.โค Additional DRAM supply may reshape the global AI memory market over time.โค Demonstrates continued state-backed investment in China's semiconductor industry. - H
i think investors are getting a bit more cautious as seen by NVDAโs fall and the weakness in memory stocks which suggest the AI trade may not be as straightforward as before. adding on CXMTโs debut to add more pressure and the market may now be looking more closely at who can still hold margins and pricing power.
โ๏ธ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk โ Apple Retakes the Crown as Nvidia, SK Hynix SlideNvidia's biggest bet is looking shaky. Nvidia (NVDA) sank about 5%, its worst day since February, on fears its reported $250B OpenAI financing guarantee is circular financing in disguise, handing Appl...
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AI Memory Stocks Repricing: CXMTโs Record A-share Debut vs Micron / SanDisk
$Micron Tech(MU.US)ย $CXMT(688825.SH)ย CXMT (688825.SH) became one of the most closely watched semiconductor listings in China.IPO price: RMB 8.66First-day close: RMB 49.00First-day gain: about 465.82%Market ca...
SanDisk +500%, Micron Tops $1,000. Chasing? - F
KOSPI is down almost 10% as of now. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are โbleedingโ as much as 9.5% and 10.9%, respectively.
Institutional and retail investors are dumping AI-related bets amid mounting concerns over financing risks tied to AI infrastructure spending and intensifying competition from China.
The real threat is coming from China. CXMT can bring new capacity online far faster, roughly about a year faster than SK Hynix typically takes 2โ3 years to build and ramp advanced fabs.
How can you compete against that speed? I cannot imagine๐
Today is Tuesday. Fed meeting coming Thursday early morning. Watch out and respect Fed๐.
โ๏ธ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk โ Apple Retakes the Crown as Nvidia, SK Hynix SlideNvidia's biggest bet is looking shaky. Nvidia (NVDA) sank about 5%, its worst day since February, on fears its reported $250B OpenAI financing guarantee is circular financing in disguise, handing Appl...
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As I have mentioned before, this market is long overdue for a proper correction and memory stocks could be the first to lead it down.
CXMTโs upcoming listing isnโt just another semiconductor IPO. Itโs a direct challenge and a far bigger threat to SK Hynix, Micron and every other player in this space. Yesterdayโs sharp drop in memory stocks?
It could be a healthy correction or it could already be pricing in this new competition. Either way, the market has spoken and we can all see it.
How far will this pullback go? I expect it to be shortโterm. But over the medium run, memory stocks must deliver on their growth story ,just like Tesla. If cannot deliver, the market will punish them hard.
โ๏ธ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk โ Apple Retakes the Crown as Nvidia, SK Hynix SlideNvidia's biggest bet is looking shaky. Nvidia (NVDA) sank about 5%, its worst day since February, on fears its reported $250B OpenAI financing guarantee is circular financing in disguise, handing Appl...
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Chinaโs DRAM makers will double production capacity by 2030 led by CXMT, media report, citing Goldman Sachs. The report says Chinaโs memory makers are focusing on 3D DRAM due to restrictions to their purchase of EUV lithography machines. $ASML(ASML.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $SSNLF $Micron Tech(MU.US) #semiconductors
Source: Dan Nystedt
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Earned 4.6 billion less!
On its first day of listing, CXMT surged by over 500%, with a total market capitalization exceeding 3.5 trillion yuan, topping the A-share market cap rankings; Country Garden Venture Capital previously sold its equity at a low price, missing out on nearly 46 billion yuan in potential gains; meanwhile, the Hang Seng Tech Index strengthened driven by news, with placement shareholders such as Alibaba seeing paper profits exceeding 160 billion yuan. The biggest focus of the market today is undoubtedly CXMT's listing on the STAR Market. Within half a day, CXMT rose by over 500%, with turnover exceeding 100 billion yuan and a total market cap surpassing 3.5 trillion yuan, overtaking ICBC to become the number one A-share stock by market cap...
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$CXMT(688825.SH) took a look
This A-share market is too NB!
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๐ข ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ง ๐๐ก: Changxin Technology Shares Surge ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฌ% in STAR Market Debut - CNBC - $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Seagate Tech(STX.US) $WDX $SK Hynix(SKHY.US)
๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐น๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐๐:โค ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ง๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ต๐ป๐ผ๐น๐ผ๐ด๐ shares surged about ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฌ% in market debut.โค Company raised $๐ด.๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป in its Shanghai STAR Market IPO.โค IPO was priced at ๐ด.๐ฒ๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฎ๐ป per share.โค Shares opened at ๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐๐ฎ๐ป per share.โค Company held ๐ณ.๐ฒ๐ณ% of the global ๐๐ฅ๐๐ market in ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ.โค IPO proceeds will fund memory wafer production and ๐ฅ&๐ expansion.โค First-quarter operating profit reached ๐ฏ๐ฑ.๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐๐ฎ๐ป, versus a ๐ฎ.๐ด๐ฏ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐๐ฎ๐ป loss a year earlier.โค Apple is reportedly testing ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ง ๐๐ฅ๐๐ for devices sold in China.โค Global DRAM market remains led by ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐บ๐๐๐ป๐ด, ๐ฆ๐ ๐๐๐ป๐ถ๐ , and ๐ ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ป.๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ ๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐:โค Highlights China's push to build a globally competitive memory chip industry.โค A stronger CXMT could increase competition for Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.โค Apple's reported testing signals potential progress toward domestic chip sourcing in China.โค Strong IPO demand reflects continued investor confidence in AI-driven memory markets. - E
Major news on CXMT & YMTC all at once.
1. CXMT plans expansion that may more than double monthly wafer output2. CXMT inks five-year ByteDance supply agreement valued over $7 billion. 3. Trump administration split on additional limits for CXMT, YMTC4. YMTC executives pushing internally for trillion-yuan IPO valuation target5. CXMT, YMTC in some cases charge more for memory chips than Samsung, SK Hynix6. Apple sought assurances CCXMT won't be added to U.S. entity list. - H
๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐: BofA Says Chinese AI Models Reinforce Bullish Memory Demand Outlook - $Micron Tech(MU.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Seagate Tech(STX.US) $Western Digital(WDC.US)
๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐น๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐๐:โค ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐บ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ reiterates ๐๐๐ on ๐ ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ป.โค BofA maintains a $๐ญ,๐ฑ๐ฑ๐ฌ price target on Micron.โค Chinese open-source AI models reinforce long-term ๐๐ ๐บ๐ฒ๐บ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ demand.โค Kimi K3 API pricing is reportedly ๐ฑโ๐ฏ๐ฑ๐ฌ๐ lower than Western models.โค BofA says lower pricing reflects ๐ฏ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐๐ ๐บ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น choices, not hardware costs.โค Kimi K3 requires approximately ๐ญ.๐ฐ ๐ง๐ of HBM per serving instance.โค BofA says larger AI models require the same or more ๐บ๐ฒ๐บ๐ผ๐ฟ๐.โค BofA sees ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ง focused on commodity DRAM, not advanced HBM.โค Micron's CHIPS Act restrictions may expire around ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฒ.โค Expiration could enable $๐ฑ๐ฌโ$๐ฒ๐ฌ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป in annual share repurchases.๐ ๐๐ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐:๐ฉ๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐ธ ๐๐ฟ๐๐ฎ, Analyst at Bank of America:"reflect[s] business-model choices, not necessarily reflective of hardware costs.""require the same or more memory as their model weights and active parameters increase.""'Open' refers to weight distribution, not deployment cost." - E
BofA: US Semis
> Chinese Open LLMs Drive Memory Demand: Recent open-source and open-weight model releases from China (such as Moonshot AIโs Kimi K3) do not threaten memory demand; rather, they reinforce a bullish thesis for memory and Micron Technology (MU).> API Pricing vs. Hardware Requirements: Aggressive Chinese API pricing (up to 5-350x cheaper than Western models) reflects business-model choices and market-share strategies rather than lower hardware costs. For example, Kimi K3 still requires roughly 1.4 TB of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) per serving instance.> Non-Hardware Cost Advantages: Chinese model providers achieve cost advantages through architectural efficiency (such as Mixture of Experts [MoE] sparsity, MLA/hybrid attention, and native quantization) and infrastructure efficiencies (lower local electricity, labor, and land costs, alongside potential state-linked subsidies).> Open Models Expand Memory Sockets: Unlike closed models where millions of users share a single centralized HBM pool, open-weight models are downloaded and self-hosted across thousands of separate enterprise, cloud, and sovereign endpoints, multiplying global memory and storage sockets.> Scaling Outpaces Compression: While compression techniques and active-parameter sparsity reduce compute intensity, total model parameter sizes continue to scale up drastically (e.g., Kimi K3 reaching 2.8 trillion parameters), driving continuous demand for multi-tier memory hierarchies (HBM, DRAM, and NAND). > Micron Technology (MU) Outlook: BofA reiterates its Buy rating on Micron with a $1,550 price objective, citing limited competitive threat from China's CXMT (which focuses on underserved consumer DRAM rather than advanced HBM3E/HBM4) and upcoming catalysts like the expiration of CHIPS Act buyback restrictions in late 2026.$Micron Tech(MU.US) $DRAM $EWY+1
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$Micron Tech(MU.US)
Micron remains one of the strongest AI memory beneficiaries in 2026, backed by record profitability, expanding HBM shipments and robust free cash flow. In its latest quarter, Micron reported record business performance, generated over $18 billion in adjusted free cash flow, held approximately $30 billion in cash and investments, and guided for another record quarter, highlighting that AI demand remains exceptionally strong. (Micron Technologyโ ๏ฟผ)
However, investors should not ignore the emergence of ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). Following its blockbuster Shanghai IPO, the worldโs fourth-largest DRAM supplier is accelerating capacity expansion with an estimated 8% global DRAM market share. While U.S. export restrictions still limit its competitiveness in premium HBM products, increased production in commodity DRAM could pressure industry pricing and gradually erode Micronโs gross margins in consumer and PC memory segments. (marketwatch.comโ ๏ฟผ)
For long-term investors, the investment thesis remains intact because Micronโs technological leadership in HBM3E and AI memory commands premium pricing. Nevertheless, recent buyers should expect higher volatility after the stockโs sharp rally. Option sellers may consider waiting for implied volatility to normalize before selling cash-secured puts, while existing shareholders should monitor whether support holds near key technical levels. If CXMT triggers a broader DRAM price war, Micron could experience multiple compression despite resilient AI-driven earnings. This article is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - E
Highlights of an expert call from a Senior Director at ARM who was a Former Director at Western Digital regarding memory:
Unique Nature of the Current Memory Upcycle> AI Data Center Expansion: Unlike past commodity-driven cycles (such as 2017โ2018 or 2021โ2022), this upcycle is uniquely propelled by sustained, multi-year AI data center buildouts from hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta. > Longer Cycle Duration: While past cycles typically flipped every 18 months, strong demand and constrained supply mean suppliers are already largely sold out through 2027, with market softening potentially expected around 2028 as new fabs come online.Memory Bandwidth & Capacity Constraints (Training vs. Inference)> Training Phase: Demand for HBM, LPDDR, and storage remains robust to support trillion-parameter models, though the baseline of model creation is becoming more established. > Inference & The Agentic World: Inference is the primary revenue driver (exemplified by Micron's performance) and the "token economy". As multi-user agent systems scale, demand for faster token generation explodes, creating a "double whammy" of high demand for both GPU-attached HBM and CPU-orchestrated LPDDR bandwidth. Supply Growth, Market Share, and Competitors> Current Market Shares:HBM Share: SK Hynix leads at approximately 58% to 60%, followed by Samsung and Micron at around 20% each. DRAM Share: Samsung leads overall with roughly 40%, followed by SK Hynix (30%), Micron (20%), and others/China vendors (10%). > Strategic Allocation: Vendors are balancing high-margin LPDDR capacity (driven by tight markets in smartphones and PCs) alongside HBM. > The CXMT Threat: China's CXMT is expected to capture growing single-digit market share, primarily focusing on older nodes and LPDDR products for domestic data centers and smartphone brands (Xiaomi, vivo, OPPO).Long-Term Supply Agreements (LTAs) & Pricing Outlook> Shift in LTAs: Data center customers are pushing for 3-year or even 5-year LTAs to secure guaranteed supply, giving memory vendors stronger pricing power compared to historical 1-year agreements. > Pricing Trajectory:HBM/DRAM/NAND: Broad consensus expects prices to trend upward through 2026 and 2027 due to supply constraints. HBM Pricing Trajectory: Blended average selling prices (ASPs) per stack are estimated around $330 to $360 for HBM3E in 2026, projected to rise to about $500 for HBM4 in 2027 as it gets introduced, and expected to soften slightly to around $450 for HBM4E in 2028 as supply catches up.Company Optimism & Outlook> SK Hynix: Highly praised for its market leadership in HBM, though integrating logic dies for future iterations poses a competitive frontier. > Samsung: Viewed favorably due to an inherent margin and pricing advantage via its in-house logic foundry (Samsung Foundry), positioning it to potentially claw back some HBM share in the 2027โ2028 timeframe. > Micron: Expected to maintain its steady ~20% market share while benefiting strongly from current supply-constrained margins.$Micron Tech(MU.US) $EWY $DRAM
