Lockheed Martin

META AI capex reset hits tape

Nasdaq posted its steepest drop since June as AI spending doubts resurfaced, oil spiked on Middle East attacks, and yields fell on a flight to safety. Tech and Communication Services led the downside; Consumer Staples and Utilities provided the offset. Breadth was better than the headline declines implied—the majority of stocks rose even as the AI complex sold off.

Story of the Day: $Meta Platforms(META.US)’s AI spend reset the tape

$Meta Platforms(META.US) fell roughly 7% after reporting Q3 revenue of $64.6B (beat) and stronger Q4 guidance, but lifting the low end of 2026 capex to $135–145B and posting its first negative free cash flow (−$2.1B) as a public company. The company also created a new non-voting Class C share class to fund the buildout while preserving Zuckerberg’s control. Credit risk widened to records. Analysts largely stayed constructive on the Muse AI agent and ad returns (several raised targets), but the market focused on the funding and ROI question. The move spilled into semis, neoclouds, and the broader AI complex.

$Tesla(TSLA.US): Beat, then a timeline and capex rethink

$Tesla(TSLA.US) slipped about 2–3% after an earnings beat (revenue ~$28.05B, adjusted EPS $0.48). The company cut 2026 capex guidance to ~$20B from >$25B, produced surprise positive free cash flow, but tempered the Optimus ramp (Musk: “probably at least a year, maybe a little longer” to meaningful volume) and left Cybercab/robotaxi timelines measured. For a stock priced on autonomy and robotics optionality, the slower capital deployment read as a step back rather than efficiency. SpaceX merger chatter did little to offset it.

$Lam Research(LRCX.US): Record quarter, supply and China guide the problem

$Lam Research(LRCX.US) dropped double digits after record September-quarter revenue of $8.22B and EPS of $2.20. December guidance ($8.6B midpoint) was only modestly above consensus and implied sub-5% sequential growth. Management flagged near-term supply constraints (shipments delayed into March) and a meaningful drop in China contribution. AI demand commentary stayed constructive and the longer-term WFE outlook (mid-$150B for 2026, >$200B preliminary for 2027) was intact, but the near-term delivery and China risk dominated the price reaction. Semis broadly followed lower.

Oil and the macro overlay

Brent topped $113 (highest since May) and WTI approached $100 after Houthi drone strikes on Saudi targets (including the Shaybah field and Dammam airport) and reports of vessel damage. US officials ordered some diplomats and families out of Saudi Arabia amid rising tensions. The oil spike added inflation and growth concerns on top of the AI spending debate. Safe-haven flows helped the 10-year yield fall sharply (roughly to the 4.95–5.01% area, largest one-day drop in months in some reports), which supported rate-sensitive and defensive names even as tech sold off.

Other notable movers and catalysts

$Spotify(SPOT.US) surged ~10–11% on Q3 results showing continued subscriber and MAU growth (Premium to 306M, MAUs to 788M), expanding gross margin, and solid operating income, despite some revenue/EPS misses. The market rewarded the compounding growth and margin trajectory over the print details.

Defense and select industrials ($Lockheed Martin(LMT.US), $Allegion(ALLE.US), $Roper Tech(ROP.US)) and staples ($Procter & Gamble(PG.US)) rallied on better-than-feared or beat results.

Photonics and other semi equipment names were weak alongside $Lam Research(LRCX.US).

FinTwit/X commentary centered on the AI ROI and funding debate. Posts noted the irony of $Meta Platforms(META.US)’s higher spend being punished while $Tesla(TSLA.US)’s lower spend was also punished, with many framing the session as a “picky” market that still wants AI exposure but is demanding clearer returns and timelines. Safe-haven flows into bonds and defensives were widely flagged as the secondary theme alongside oil.

What matters next

The AI complex now has a clear near-term test: whether subsequent reports (and any further hyperscaler commentary) reinforce or ease the spending/ROI concerns that hit $Meta Platforms(META.US) and spilled over. Storage and semi equipment will watch for evidence that supply constraints are temporary rather than structural. Oil and Middle East headlines remain a swing factor for inflation expectations and risk appetite. Yields staying lower would continue to support non-tech breadth. For swing setups, the divergence between the AI complex and the rest of the tape is the clearest near-term feature.

NFA / DYOR. Markets move quickly; this is commentary on public information only, not investment advice.

Anduril just opened an employee tender that values the defense tech company near $90 billion, per Bloomberg

Shares are priced at $94.80, with the offer capped at about $1.3 billion

The window opened this week and closes Nov 9. Current and former employees across 16 countries can sell, the first time the tender went beyond the US, UK, and Australia

That is up from a $61 billion valuation in May, when Anduril raised $5 billion led by Thrive Capital and Andreessen Horowitz. A June 2025 round had put the company at $30.5 billion

Palmer Luckey co-founded the firm in 2017. Products include unmanned fighter aircraft, autonomy software, surveillance systems, and AR helmets for the military. The Pentagon is among its biggest customers

Revenue hit $2.2 billion last year, roughly double the year before

A private defense AI name clearing $90 billion on employee liquidity, while still short of the $100 billion raise talks Reuters flagged in July, shows how long these companies can stay private and still give staff cash. For public comps like $Lockheed Martin(LMT.US) and $Northrop Grumman(NOC.US), that is another reminder the next wave of defense spending is being priced in private markets first

Source: StockMarket.News

Rep. Kevin Hern (R) just disclosed 18 new stock trades

Every single one was a sell

Buys: $0

Sells: up to ~$945K

Including $Lockheed Martin(LMT.US), $Unitedhealth(UNH.US), $Chevron(CVX.US), $Devon Energy(DVN.US), & more

📢 𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗜𝗡: Lockheed seeks U.S. mineral supplies after Trump supply-chain push - Reuters - $Niocorp Developments(NB.US) $US Antimony(UAMY.US) $MP Materials(MP.US) $USA Rare Earth(USAR.US) $Critical Metals(CRML.US) $Lithium Americas(LAC.US)

👉 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀:

➤ 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗵𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻 is negotiating U.S. supplies of 𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝘂𝗺 and 𝗴𝗲𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗶𝘂𝗺.

➤ Talks involve 𝗡𝗶𝗼𝗖𝗼𝗿𝗽, 𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗸 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀, and 𝗙𝗡 𝗣𝗹𝘂𝘀.

➤ Scandium would be sourced from 𝗡𝗶𝗼𝗖𝗼𝗿𝗽'𝘀 Nebraska mine, targeted for 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟴.

➤ Preliminary agreement covers 𝟭𝟱 𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝘁𝗼𝗻𝘀 of scandium annually.

➤ Contracted volume equals roughly 𝟮𝟱% of estimated global scandium demand.

➤ Lockheed is also negotiating long-term 𝗴𝗲𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗶𝘂𝗺 supply agreements.

➤ Germanium is used in 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗿𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 and advanced military systems.

➤ Discussions follow U.S. efforts to reduce reliance on 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗲 critical minerals.

➤ Contract pricing and duration remain key issues in ongoing negotiations.

👉 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀:

➤ Strengthens domestic U.S. critical mineral supply chains for defense.

➤ Could reduce dependence on Chinese sources for strategic materials.

➤ Supports long-term production of advanced military aircraft and missile systems.

➤ May accelerate investment in North American critical minerals projects.

👉 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀:

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸 𝗦𝗺𝗶𝘁𝗵, CEO of NioCorp:

"Both companies recognize how important scandium has become to the future of American defense technology."

𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗵𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻:

"the global critical minerals supply chain to ensure access to materials that support our customers' missions."