META251017C760000.US

$Meta Platforms(META.US) in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal.

Seems like they saw how profitable

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) $45B compute deal was.

But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $Nebius(NBIS.US), $IREN(IREN.US), and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework.

Source: NYT

$Meta Platforms(META.US)

BREAKING: Meta is in talks to rent computing capacity to Anthropic in a deal worth up to $10B over 2 years, as per the New York Times.

Meta went down today on news that they hired a senior AWS executive to help build their cloud division.

Why? Because it was confirmation that they are doubling down on capex and selling compute, which means their FCF will take a hit. Ironically, the semis should have been up on this news but the Kimi K3 headlines have kept them down.

Now, Meta is slightly reversing on this headline about selling compute to Anthropic…which begs the question…if the market is happy about Meta selling compute to a big lab, why are they upset about Meta spending more on capex in order to build that compute business?

Tons of weird narratives conflicting with each other, but it looks like META is officially getting into the neocloud game.

Source: amit

Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) may lease computing power to Anthropic in a deal worth ~$10 billion.

Anthropic reportedly proposed the deal in June, and Meta is "considering it", per NYT.

Breaking: Rep. Dan Crenshaw is back on the trading desk

He just bought a 3x oil ETF $USOU

Along with selling $Amazon(AMZN.US), $Apple(AAPL.US), $Meta Platforms(META.US), & $Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

$Meta Platforms(META.US) | BMO Capital 𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 on 𝐌𝐞𝐭𝐚, 𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐏𝐓 𝐚𝐭 $𝟕𝟐𝟎

Analyst remains on the sidelines, citing the 'least visible AI ROI story' and regulatory threats despite recent positive AI/cloud developments.

$Meta Platforms(META.US) | 𝐁𝐚𝐢𝐫𝐝 𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 on 𝐌𝐞𝐭𝐚, 𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐏𝐓 𝐚𝐭 $𝟖𝟑𝟎

Analyst sees potential AI revenue benefits as not yet priced into the stock, a view the analyst believes is gaining traction.

HUGE $Nebius(NBIS.US) news today, showcasing why they're the premier neocloud:

-> Nebius announces a new business model that lets infrastructure partners deploy Nebius’s AI cloud platform in their own AI data centers.

This is so f*cking good.

Simply:

- Nebius will let partners (e.g. DC developers, infra funds, sovereign AI projects) build + pay for data centres.

- Then pair that partner capacity with Nebius's systems, software stackm and customer book.

- Meaning that Nebius can expand their capacity "pool" even faster.

- With no capex or financing risks like debt/dilution.

Also, for Nebius: they get a very high margin rev stream w/ minimal financing requirements.

Since the partners will fund all the expensive stuff like the actual building / power / GPUs.

And then Nebius supplies genuinely scarce stuff like systems architecture / $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) supply chain access / software stack. And ofc, the GTM strategy w/ access to Nebius's customers.

Meaning that Nebius would sell a partner's DC capacity via their own in-house Nebius sales org. With identical service levels to their owned sites.

Then, Nebius takes a revenue cut / licensing fees / commissions / committed capacity deals.

Unbelievable from Nebius lol.

Nebius sells out capacity every quarter and sits on ~$46B of contracted backlog (mainly $Microsoft(MSFT.US) and $Meta Platforms(META.US)).

So their main constraint is nothing to do with customers or tech.

Rather, their limiting factor has been capital + energized power where every GW costs upwards of billions of dollars.

But...this announcement removes the capital constraints to crazy high expansion.

$Nebius(NBIS.US) signs $1B+ compute agreement with Reflection AI, for GB300 access through 2029.

Reflection also signed a multi-billion dollar agreement with $SpaceX(SPCX.US) earlier.

Interesting to say the least, seeing Nebius drop -5% off the news today.

Also... counterparty to get this done kinda reminds me of OpenAI, where they might not have the funds to actually execute on these LTAs yet compared to $Meta Platforms(META.US) or $Microsoft(MSFT.US).

But generally positive long term developments, customer diversification was one of the core strengths of Nebius.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Trump says the U.S. is reinstating the blockade and will now charge a 20% fee on all cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively putting a tariff on one of the world’s most important shipping routes. He also said the U.S. is “probably just going to take over the Strait,” arguing America has guarded it for 50 years without being paid, while warning Iran that the U.S. is prepared to hit them “very hard” tonight and tomorrow.

2. Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) is expected to launch a base M6 this fall, but reportedly skip the M6 Pro, M6 Max, and M6 Ultra, moving directly to M7. The M7 Ultra is designed to support up to 1.5TB of memory, roughly double the planned M5 Ultra capacity, and could help power Apple’s future AI server strategy. Apple is also already developing M8 chips with greater AI capabilities, including 2028 chips moving to a 1.4nm process. $Apple(AAPL.US) Apple hit an all-time high today.

3. TSMC $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) reported record Q2 revenue driven by AI demand. June revenue came in around $13.8B, up 6.2% MoM and 67.9% YoY. Q2 revenue was about $39.6B, up 36% YoY and above the roughly $39.4B estimate. First-half 2026 revenue reached about $75.0B.

4. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) is expanding its Richland Parish, Louisiana data center to 5GW of compute capacity, raising the announced investment to over $50B from the original $10B plan. Bloomberg reports the total site cost could exceed $250B when including chips, though Meta has only publicly disclosed $50B. Meta also plans more than $1B in local infrastructure improvements and says the site will support 1,000+ roles once operational.

5. Newly disclosed court records show Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) is suing OpenAI, alleging misappropriation of trade secrets likely stemming to a new consumer device. The Information reports OpenAI’s first consumer AI device could launch as early as February, though Apple’s lawsuit could disrupt the timeline. OpenAI has reportedly explored several hardware concepts, including a display-less smart speaker, smart glasses, a digital voice recorder, and a wearable pin.

6. Penguin Solutions $Penguin Solutions(PENG.US) announced a proposed $650M private offering of convertible senior notes due 2031. Proceeds are expected to fund capped call transactions, refinance existing notes, and repay $100M under its credit agreement as part of a broader capital structure move.

7. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.6M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.0M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.6M contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 676K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 673K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 609K contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 560K contracts, $DRAM with 499K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 460K contracts, and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 431K contracts.

8. Korea-focused leveraged ETF AUM peaked above $45B in June, but after the recent pullback has fallen to roughly $28B. Exposure remains heavily concentrated in a few key areas: $14B in SK Hynix-linked products, $6B in Samsung-linked products, and $8B in KOSPI 200-linked products.

9. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Rocket Lab $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) at Overweight with a $96 price target. Analyst Andres Sheppard highlighted Rocket Lab’s successful U.S. Space Force VICTUS HAZE mission, marking the first time a prime contractor completed an all-in-one Tactically Responsive Space mission covering the rocket, satellite, and on-orbit operations. The firm also called the Iridium acquisition transformative and said it further validates Rocket Lab’s move toward becoming a vertically integrated, end-to-end space company.

10. Intel $Intel(INTC.US) is investing $5.7B to expand manufacturing at its Leixlip campus in Ireland. The project will upgrade existing fabs, install new leading-edge equipment, and expand capacity for Xeon 6 and next-gen Xeon processors built on the Intel 3 node. Intel says the investment supports AI and high-performance computing demand while strengthening Europe’s semiconductor supply chain. The Leixlip site employs 4,900 people, with Intel’s total investment in Ireland now above €30B since 1989.

11. Fluence $Fluence Energy(FLNC.US) signed a contract with Avantus to supply a 200MW / 800MWh Smartstack battery system for the Rexford 2 solar-plus-storage project in Tulare County, California. Construction is expected to begin in 2027, with operations targeted for late 2028, and enough capacity to power roughly 84,000 homes.

12. Bernstein says “this time is different” for memory $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US), arguing new long-term agreements offer much stronger downside protection than past semiconductor contracts. Unlike prior cycles where customers delayed orders or disputed obligations, Bernstein says today’s memory LTAs are backed by upfront collateral. The firm estimates $Sandisk(SNDK.US) has $11B+ of guarantees supporting roughly $69B of remaining obligations, while $Micron Tech(MU.US) holds $18B of deposits plus $4B of letters of credit. Bernstein also says protection is back-end weighted, with collateral coverage rising toward 75%–100% in the outer years when downcycle risk is highest. The bigger shift: counterparties are now hyperscalers and large OEMs with stronger balance sheets, while demand is tied to multi-year AI infrastructure buildouts and rising HBM/DRAM/NAND intensity. Bottom line: LTAs do not eliminate memory cyclicality, but Bernstein believes they improve earnings visibility, pricing durability, and trough protection versus prior cycles.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

Morgan Stanley: CapEx

Major AI Infrastructure & Capex Surges

> $1.4 Trillion Capex Forecast: Morgan Stanley has raised its total hyperscaler capex forecast to $1.4 trillion by 2028 (up from ~$1.2 trillion in 2027), driven by an updated bottom-up cost model and rising forward capacity expectations.

> 4x Compute Capacity Growth: This heavy investment is projected to expand total available hyperscaler compute capacity to 120 GW by 2028, up from ~30 GW in 2025.

> Rising Data Center Costs: Estimated data center deployment costs per gigawatt are increasing across multiple architectures due to inflationary pressures on memory and "outside the rack" (powered shell) development costs. Costs are modeled at $35bn for GB200, $39bn for GB300, and $49bn for Vera Rubin.

> Bottlenecks and Timelines: Constraints on chips/racks, powered shells, and other supply chain bottlenecks are stretching data center construction timelines to as long as 3 years.

Meta

> Capex Expansion: Morgan Stanley significantly raised Meta's '27/'28 capex projections by 29% and 22% respectively, reaching $225bn in 2027 and $250bn in 2028. Higher depreciation from this spend modestly reduces '27/'28 EPS estimates.

> API Revenue Stream: The rollout of Muse Spark 1.1 is priced aggressively (30%–85% below private peers). Morgan Stanley models that every 100 MW of compute allocated toward Meta's API could generate $8bn in revenue and ~$2 of '28 EPS.

Amazon

> Capex and Growth Expansion: Total company capex estimates were raised by 15% and 29%, reaching $308bn in 2027 and $318bn in 2028.

> AWS Revenue Acceleration: Backed by private lab deals, AWS revenue growth is projected to hitting 40% y/y in '27 and 36% y/y in '28. AWS backlog is expected to hit ~$475bn in Q2.

Google

> Cloud Dominance vs. Tactical Risk: Google Cloud is modeled to achieve massive 77%/78% growth in 2026/2026.

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US)