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Shopify 

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1202 | Dolphin Research Key Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. DeepSeek simultaneously launched two official versions of AI models, DeepSeek-V3.2 and DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale. The former's inference capability is close to GPT-5, with tool invocation reaching the top level of open-source models; the latter won four international competition gold medals, specializing in complex tasks. The models introduce the DSA sparse attention mechanism, significantly reducing inference costs. The dual-model strategy precisely covers different needs, and technological breakthroughs narrow the gap between open-source and closed-source models...

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Global Tech Blitz: Nvidia Invests in Synopsys, Apple AI Shakeup, Alibaba Updates AI Model | Today's Important News Recap

shopify

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The following is the FY25Q3 earnings call minutes of $Shopify (SHOP.US) organized by Dolphin Research. For earnings interpretation, please refer to &#34;Shopify: Is Imperfection Unacceptable, the Original Sin of High Valuation?&#34; 1. Review of Core Financial Information 1. Third-quarter stock-based compensation expense was $116 million, and capital expenditure was $6 million. Free cash flow for the third quarter reached $507 million, accounting for 18% of total revenue. The free cash flow profit margin for the first nine months of this year remained the same as the same period last year, at 16%; this quarter's transaction and loan losses accounted for approximately 5% of revenue...

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Shopify (Minutes): Optimistic about the enterprise market + AI development in e-commerce

Financial Analysis

HIGH

As the most watched hot target in the current e-commerce AI field—Shopify announced its Q3 2025 financial report on the evening of November 4th, before the U.S. stock market opened. Overall, the growth performance remains quite strong, with GMV growth accelerating sequentially on a high base. However, due to a narrowing gross margin and expenses returning to an expansion cycle, the year-on-year contraction in profit margin has widened, which is not considered favorable. Specifically: 1. Strong GMV growth, the source of all exceeding expectations: GMV within the Shopify ecosystem reached $9.2 billion this quarter, up 32% year-on-year, further accelerating on the already high base of the previous quarter, significantly outperforming expectations...

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Shopify: Imperfection is Unacceptable, the Original Sin of High Valuation?

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0930 Dolphin Research Key Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. The White House meeting on September 29th failed to reach an agreement on the temporary funding bill. The Democrats demanded that the Obamacare subsidies extension be tied to the budget bill, while the Republicans insisted on a 'clean' extension until November 21st. Federal funds will run out at 12:01 AM Eastern Time on October 1st. If no agreement is reached within 24 hours, the federal government will partially shut down, and the release of the September non-farm payroll data may be delayed. However, the market currently has high expectations that the two parties will reach a temporary agreement before the deadline, with limited impact...

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HKEX launches PPMT stock options; ChatGPT introduces instant shopping feature | Today's important news recap

The following are the minutes of the FY25Q2 earnings call for $Shopify (SHOP.US) organized by Dolphin Research. For an interpretation of the earnings report, please refer to the article &#34;Shopify: As Long as Growth Explodes, Other Issues Are Not Issues.&#34; 1. Review of Core Financial Information 1. Revenue Performance: a) Total Revenue: Increased by 31% year-over-year. Merchant Solutions revenue grew by 37%, mainly benefiting from enhanced GMV and Shopify Payments penetration rate (reaching 64%); Subscription Solutions revenue grew by 17%...

Shopify (Minutes): Strong European and North American markets are the main reasons for GMV exceeding expectations

U.S. independent e-commerce leader Shopify (SHOP.US) announced its Q2 2025 financial results after market close on August 6th. Driven by robust Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), most indicators significantly exceeded expectations, and the guidance for the next quarter was also notably higher than anticipated.

Shopify: When Explosive Growth Masks All Other Issues

Shopify 2Q25 Quick Interpretation: This quarter's performance of Shopify was quite 'explosive,' with all indicators significantly exceeding expectations. Before the earnings release, no sell-side analysts had anticipated such a strong performance. The guidance for the next quarter also exceeded expectations across the board.Specifically:1) The fundamental reason behind all the outperformance is that the GMV within the Shopify ecosystem surged nearly 31% year-over-year this quarter, far exceeding the approximately 23% of the previous quarter and the market expectation of a flat sequential growth rate.Even after excluding the impact of exchange rates, the GMV growth rate still accelerated by 4 percentage points compared to the previous quarter.Dolphin Research's preview of Wall Street's performance did not mention any related signals. The focus will be on the management's explanation during the conference call as to why GMV was so strong.2) Driven by the strong GMV, Shopify's payment volume and merchant services revenue also significantly exceeded expectations, with the magnitude consistent with GMV and not further amplified.3) The MRR indicator performed 'within expectations' and was weaker than the market expected. This quarter it was $185, up only 9.5% year-over-year, significantly below the expected $192.However, leading Wall Street firms had already anticipated that the market overestimated MRR due to the free trial initiatives, so the actual performance should not surprise the buyers.Correspondingly, subscription revenue for this quarter also slightly underperformed market expectations.4) In terms of profit performance, the gross margin for this quarter declined both sequentially and year-over-year, and was about 50 basis points lower than market expectations. This was mainly due to the increased proportion of low-margin merchant services revenue. The change in the revenue recognition criteria for the PayPal channel also had a dragging effect.Despite this, due to strong revenue growth, the gross profit amount still exceeded expectations, but the margin of outperformance narrowed from over 7% to about 4%.5) On operating expenses, actual spending for this quarter was roughly in line with expectations, up about 26% year-over-year. However, due to the actual revenue significantly exceeding expectations and the growth rate outpacing the expense growth rate,the profit margin continued to expand this quarter. The FCF profit margin was 15.7%, though it narrowed year-over-year, it was still higher than the expected 15.3%.6) The guidance for the next quarter also exceeded expectations across the board, with revenue growth guidance of 26%~29%, higher than the expected 22%; gross profit growth guidance of 20%~25%, higher than the expected 18%. The FCF profit margin guidance was 16%~19%, roughly in line with market expectations. $Shopify (SHOP.US)

Below is the earnings call $Shopify (SHOP.US) FY25Q1 Minutes. For the Quick Interpretation of the earnings report, please refer to《Shopify: &#34;Tariff Sword&#34; Hanging Over, Small Merchants Hurt the Most?》I. Key Earnings Highlights 1. Revenue Performance Total Revenue: Up 27% YoY. Merchant Solutions revenue grew 29%, mainly driven by GMV growth and Shopify Payments penetration (reaching 64%); Subscription Solutions revenue increased 21%, boosted by merchant onboarding and Plus pricing adjustments...

Shopify (Minutes): No tariff impact seen in May, gross margin headwinds to persist until second half

On the evening of May 8th Beijing time, before the U.S. stock market opened, the leading independent e-commerce company in the U.S., $Shopify (SHOP.US), released its Q1 2025 earnings report. The core issue was that, under high valuation, the profit growth guidance for the current and next quarter fell below expectations. Key details are as follows: 1. MV growth slowed as expected, with tariff impacts not yet visible: The key operational metric—Shopify's GMV for the quarter totaled $74.8 billion, up 22.8% YoY. Although it slowed by about 2.9 pct compared to the previous quarter (after excluding currency headwinds, the actual decline was only 1 pct)...

Shopify: The "tariff sword" remains unresolved, small businesses suffer the most?

From the perspectives of both current quarter performance and next quarter guidance, Shopify's earnings report shows relatively resilient growth, but the market's focus on gross profit growth and free cash flow fell short of expectations. It appears that tariffs and macroeconomic headwinds have not significantly impacted Shopify's business growth, but they have put considerable pressure on the company's profit margin improvement narrative. Although the miss is not substantial, the company's current valuation at over 9x price-to-sales ratio for 2025 revenue is quite high, requiring rapidly growing profits to support such a premium valuation. Therefore, the pre-market reaction has been quite intense. Specifically, the core metric—GMV growth within the ecosystem—was 22.8% year-over-year, slowing by about 2.9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, which was within expectations. Consequently, revenue growth largely met expectations. However, the improvement in gross margin this quarter was lower than anticipated, causing gross profit growth (22.4% YoY) to lag behind revenue growth. Additionally, higher-than-expected marketing expenses and loan loss provisions led to free cash flow (FCF) missing expectations. For next quarter's guidance, revenue growth is projected in the mid-twenties range, which is actually better than expected. Similarly, however, gross profit growth is only in the high-teens, implying continued gross margin decline. As a result, the FCF margin guidance remains flat at 15.4% for the next quarter, while the market had expected 17%. Clearly, the biggest issue highlighted in Shopify's earnings is the underperformance of both current and next quarter's gross margin and FCF margin guidance.$Shopify (SHOP.US)

Shopify launches USDC stablecoin payments via Coinbase Base network

Operation HOPE Partners with Multiple Organizations to Launch HOPE AI™

Shopify merchants set new record with $14.6B in Black Friday to Cyber Monday sales

Shopify System Failure Disrupted Cyber Monday Sales

VestGen Advisors LLC Increases Holdings in Shopify Inc.

Northern Trust Wealth Management Increases Stake in Shopify

Loomis Sayles & Co. L P Increased Holdings in Shopify Inc.

Marcho Partners LLP Reduces Holding in Shopify

Laurel Wealth Advisors LLC Increased Holding in Shopify Inc. in Q2

Korean investment company increased holdings of Shopify Inc. shares

Atika Capital Management LLC Increases Holdings in Shopify Inc.

Himension Capital Singapore Increased Holdings of Shopify in Q2

MIG Capital LLC Increases Shopify Holdings to 23,513 Shares

Columbus Mountain Capital Management Acquires 46,900 Shares of Shopify Inc.

Correct Capital Wealth Management Reduces Holdings in Shopify

CIBC Raises Shopify's Target Price to $200 and Maintains Outperform Rating

Coalition of 25 State Attorneys General Urges Shopify to End Illicit E-Cigarette Sales