Shopify

Just some notes from $Nebius(NBIS.US) fireside chat at Goldman Sachs Tech Conference:

TLDR: Yep, it's bullish.

1. Order book extends into H1 2028 which is 2 quarters further out than at Q2 ER.

Arkady said "people are demanding tens of thousands of vGPUs and GPUs now. So we see demand today as unlimited."

Bro...what?!!

At Q2, they said that all of 2027 could be sold today. But Nebius having visibility ~1.5 years away massively de-risks their ~5GW contracted power target and their ~$25B of FY26 capex.

On demand, Arkady also said that demand visibility now extends to 24+ months (vs. 18 months previously).

This is HUGE because demand duration is a huge crux for neocloud bears (kinda makes sense why). Even $Coreweave(CRWV.US) CEO said at the GS Conference that they are "struggling to meet demand everyday."

2. "We do not pre-sell much. We are focusing on free capacity, which we will be selling later"

I think two things are happening here with Nebius

First - this is the opposite of $Coreweave(CRWV.US)'s model where their ~$104B backlog is take/pay dynamics. Nebius are instead choosing to sit on uncontracted 2027 capacity so they can sell into rising prices, kinda like how $Micron Tech(MU.US) and co. were doing pre-LTAs.

Second - keeping some spare capacity keeps room for longer-term strategic partners arriving into 2027 (which will be extremely supply-constrained). I.e. enterprise names coming via the $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) partnership.

I think both reasons make sense, I'm fairly confident that 2027 pricing will be higher.

3. "We actually have a list of new customers that are looking for any of the older generation chips that come available."

This lines up with $Coreweave(CRWV.US) disclosing at Q2 an A100 contract priced out to 2029 and completely guts the residual-value thesis bears like Burry lean on.

4. $Shopify (SHOP.US) "used open-weight models, trained it with their own data repetitively, and they achieved the quality which is higher than they had with GPT-5 and 6."

Feels like that's the whole enterprise adoption thesis summarized....narrow domain, pvt data, repeated loop, open weights > fronteir, at a fraction of the cost.

Probably also why the token factor and the Tavily acq. matter.

So yeah, Nebius' entire infrastructure goes kinda crazy. More than just GPU rental.

5. Contract mix

Marc: 3-6 month short-term deals go out "at a multiple of the ARR per megawatt" of the core. 1-3 year medium-term deals are "the lion's share" and 5+ year hyperscaler deals were done "with the explicit intent that we are looking for the capitalization benefit."

- So the longer duration $Microsoft(MSFT.US) + $Meta Platforms(META.US) contracts are lower risk collateral for financing the build

- the opportunistic short-duration surge contracts at materially higher pricing are the top-ups.

- and the 1-3 year book with AI natives and enterprises (priced above hyperscaler deals + prepaid) are the core + fastest growing segment.

Just for a summary of the points I found most interesting / different from Q2 earnings.

Cool to also see the "the vision that Arkady has is us becoming a hyperscaler."

I've been sharing the same vision for some time now, and is why Nebius ultimately deserve to trade multiples higher than Coreweave for example.

Closed trades from the last three weeks. 82% win rate. I am not posting this so you copy the P&L. The column that matters is the note.

A lot of my trades, 21ema test and Avwap breakout. That is what I call the edge, a repeatable pattern. The green is just the result.

#Trading #Investing

Breaking: Josh Kushner's Thrive Capital just filed its Q2 2026 13F

Here's everything you need to know about his recent 13F

Top positions:

• SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX.US): 18,914,205 shares, $3,231,681,066

• Amazon $Amazon(AMZN.US): 904,038 shares, $215,468,417

• Oscar Health $Oscar Health(OSCR.US): 6,343,617 shares, $180,919,957

• Shopify $Shopify (SHOP.US): 895,817 shares, $102,284,385

• Figma $Figma(FIG.US): 4,396,636 shares, $79,535,145

New positions:

• $SpaceX(SPCX.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US) — both new this filing

Full exits:

• $Carvana(CVNA.US) (was 226,761 shares, $71,289,123)

• $Stubhub - CL(STUB.US) (was 68,745 shares, $428,969)

Summary: SpaceX is now 84.8% of the entire public book

S a a S

S u m m e r

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) 107 —> $179

$Shopify (SHOP.US) $97 —> $157

$Reddit(RDDT.US) $120 —> $155

$Adobe(ADBE.US) $193 —> $271

$ServiceNow(NOW.US) $80 —> $125

$Datadog(DDOG.US) $105 —> $252

$Atlassian(TEAM.US) $57 —> $165

$Zeta Global(ZETA.US) $18 —> $29

$IGV +42% from April lows

anyone who took a chance on software over the past few months, especially in the face of semis ripping higher daily, deserves to enjoy this one

quality businesses that are governing and orchestrating tokens got sold off for fears from model companies that ultimately will be providing AI tools to make the application layer even stronger

the rotation to SaaS is also not taking away from semis which is strong for the broader health of the market

Source: amit

Loved:

$Atlassian(TEAM.US) ✅

$ServiceNow(NOW.US) ✅

$Shopify (SHOP.US) ✅

$Twilio(TWLO.US) ✅

$Snowflake(SNOW.US) ✅

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) ✅

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) ✅

$Sea(SE.US) ✅

$Digital Turbine(APPS.US) ✅

$Five9(FIVN.US) ✅

Yet to be loved:

$Workday(WDAY.US)⏳

$Salesforce(CRM.US) ⏳

$Adobe(ADBE.US) ⏳

$Intuit(INTU.US)⏳

$Oracle(ORCL.US) 👀

Dusted:

$HubSpot(HUBS.US) ❌

$Duolingo(DUOL.US) ❌

$Trade Desk(TTD.US) ❌

$Chegg(CHGG.US) ❌

$Upwork(UPWK.US) ❌

I must have missed a few names, add if you can think of.

so…the S&P is basically at ATHs

Trump has said 7 different times this week that he wants a deal with Iran

Bessent said a ceasefire could be announced over the weekend

Rate hike probabilities tanked by 20% today because of the labor market data

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) is up 40% in a week…which means the software stocks are finally getting the respect they deserve including $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Reddit(RDDT.US) $Shopify (SHOP.US)

earnings continue to compound aggressively

the super high-beta semi names are consolidating like $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) which isn’t bearish at all, especially when their growth continues to be massive

hyperscalers continue to spend on capex and cloud growth rates are showing the ROI

leverage also has been wiped out significantly

feels like we could be setting up for an end of year run IF hikes are out of the picture and earnings continue strong

the main bear case felt like oil/leverage/war/hikes

my only fear is OpenAI and Anthropic’s numbers not being meaningful enough to carry out their spending commitments but those will be shown over time

if those broader bear cases are not as relevant as inflation comes down…maybe we can continue with the momentum

Source: amit