$Shopify (SHOP.US) | BofA Securities 𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐟𝐲 with a 𝐁𝐮𝐲 rating, sets 𝐏𝐓 𝐚𝐭 $𝟏𝟓𝟎
Analyst sees Shopify as a core beneficiary of the shift to AI-driven commerce, viewing the recent stock decline as an attractive entry point.
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📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: $Shopify (SHOP.US) Shopify to bar vapes as U.S. authorities crack down on industry - Reuters
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Bought $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) $Shopify (SHOP.US)
$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) — $119.50$Amazon(AMZN.US) — $234.68$Broadcom(AVGO.US) — $394.60$Shopify (SHOP.US) — $107.79$Broadcom(AVGO.US) is the only new position as it’s taken a nice tumble after earnings on a lack of guidance raise, would ideally like $330 or below to establish a larger position. The rest are all names that I feel are cheap but the market would like to have them cheaper 🤷♂️Source: amit
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$10,000 invested 1 year ago:
🟢🔥 $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) → $53,560🟢🔥 $AMD(AMD.US) → $45,020🟢🔥 $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) → $22,090🟢 $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) → $15,370🟢 $Robinhood(HOOD.US) → $14,260🟢 $Tesla(TSLA.US) → $12,720🟢 $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) → $11,860🟢 $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) → $11,670🟢 $Shopify (SHOP.US) → $11,070🔴 $GameStop(GME.US) → $7,330
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$IGV
Okay, let’s talk about software…Here’s my question: are software stocks actually ready to breakout or is this move legit?If it is legit, then it may be time to buy the breakout.Software stocks I bought during the SaaSpocalypse: $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US), $Zeta Global(ZETA.US), $Reddit(RDDT.US), $Shopify (SHOP.US), $Oracle(ORCL.US).I bought a very small amount of $Microsoft(MSFT.US) at $413, my bigger DCA on the Mag 7s has been $Meta Platforms(META.US) over $Microsoft(MSFT.US). I believe $Meta Platforms(META.US) is a fantastic risk/reward right now but they still have narrative issues to revolve. However, given the new chip news with Microsoft/Nvidia/ARM, it seems like Microsoft could have a breakout. Buying that name into strength is NOT scary given it’s…Microsoft. If they actually start selling chips to Anthropic, they may completely get rerated.But, what about everything else? Are the rest of these software names scary to buy into a breakout after their run? I know this chip names have done amazing, but take a look at the performance of these SaaS names since the lows…$Datadog(DDOG.US) +152%$Snowflake(SNOW.US) +116%$Reddit(RDDT.US) +45%$Zeta Global(ZETA.US) +59%$ServiceNow(NOW.US) +53%$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) +28%$Shopify (SHOP.US) +26%$Oracle(ORCL.US) +62% $CrowdStrike(CRWD.US) +107%$Palo Alto Networks(PANW.US) +91%Last week, people were saying Shopify would be vibecoded away. ServiceNow would be going out of business. I mean just absurd commentary on incredibly important companies. If the software narrative being destroyed is gone, why wouldn’t these names be buys into the breakout? Assuming no broader macro drawdown, is the risk reward not still very strong for these names?Many of them are still DOWN year to date. If token spend is going to normalize (as per Anthropic not raising costs for Opus 4.8) and the market finally realizing that all this token demand is actually coming from the SOFTWARE companies processing and orchestrating it…then it feels like the SaaS breakout could be just beginning and even if you missed the drawdown, buying these names into strength wouldn’t be scary given their multiples are still compressed but their growth rates continue to match some of the best chip names. Did you buy SaaS during the drawdown? Are you buying more software names into strength?Source: amit
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so is software back or is the market just playing with our emotions again
$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) +5.2%$Shopify (SHOP.US) +4.7%$Reddit(RDDT.US) +5.1%$ServiceNow(NOW.US) +6.5%$Figma(FIG.US) +7.2%can we finally stop this nonsense about AI destroying software 😭Source: amit
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$Shopify (SHOP.US) is such a beautiful short idea. This one is slowly and steadily heading to Covid lows Avwap at 80-78. Yet another beautiful Saas company that's getting killed due to silly market.
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Anthropic inks multi-bn compute pact with GOOGL; cloud chips ignite QCOM AI rally | Daily News Recap
May 6 | Dolphin Research Focus: Macro/Industry. The US SEC has proposed allowing listed companies to voluntarily file semiannual reports instead of quarterly reports, reducing periodic disclosures from four times a year to two. 🐬
Companies could continue using Form 10-Q or switch to a new Form 10-S for half-year reporting. The proposal now enters a 60-day comment period and would take effect once adopted.The aim is to ease compliance burdens, curb short-termism among management, and support long-term planning. However, lower transparency and delayed data could weaken price discovery and exacerbate information asymmetry...
Today’s Key News Recap - D
SHOP (Trans): Agentic Commerce Won't Disintermediate SHOP
Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of the $Shopify (SHOP.US) FY26 Q1 earnings call. For our take on the print, see《Shopify: As the e-comm agent tide recedes, is the payments leader left exposed?》。
1. Shareholder returns: management said they will continue share repurchases. Free cash flow will fund the buyback plan.
2. Guidance: Q2 revenue is expected to grow in the high-20s% YoY. FX provides an approx. 0.5pp tailwind...
shopifyConference Minutes - D
SHOP: As AI e-comm agents ebb, is the payments leader swimming naked?
The e-com tools and payments vertical leader — $Shopify (SHOP.US) reported Q1 2026 results pre-market on May 5. Overall, the quarter was solid.
Growth and profit beat Bloomberg consensus. Excluding FX tailwinds, however, the print offered little upside vs. buy-side expectations.
Guidance for next quarter showed minor blemishes. While broadly in line with Bloomberg consensus, the trajectory points to an 'inevitable' slowdown in GMV, revenue, and profit growth...
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shopifyFinancial Analysis - D
Shopify 1Q26 First Take: Purely on results, Shopify delivered a solid quarter, broadly sustaining its strong growth trend. Versus expectations, the print topped Bloomberg consensus but was roughly in line with the buyside. After several quarters of instant major beats, this one felt subdued.
The issue lies in the 2Q guide: while broadly in line with Bloomberg consensus, the trajectory points to a meaningful slowdown after several quarters of strong growth. 2Q growth will ultimately come back to earth, with a notable deceleration.
In detail. See below.
1) Core KPI: GMV grew 35% YoY, in line with buyside expectations of 34–35%. The acceleration vs. last quarter was largely FX tailwind. Ex-FX, underlying growth was ~30%, roughly unchanged.
2) Driven by strong GMV, revenue grew 34% this quarter; ex-FX, 32%. Merchant solutions (payments) led at +39%, while subscription was softer at +21%. The strength reflects rising payments penetration, up from 63.5% a year ago to 66% this quarter.
3) GPM: mix shift toward lower-margin merchant solutions continued to pressure the overall GPM, which fell 120bps YoY this quarter, though the decline was milder than expected. Ex-mix, both subscription and merchant solutions saw margin expansion.
4) Profitability: FCF was about $480 mn, with a 15% margin, slightly below 15.4% a year ago and in line with prior guidance. This is the third straight quarter of YoY decline in FCF margin, pointing to higher cash investment as AI moves into the agent era.
5) Guidance: management sees revenue growth in the high-20s for next quarter, a notable slowdown from 34% this quarter, partly as FX tailwinds fade intra-2Q. Gross profit is guided to grow mid-20s YoY, in line with Bloomberg consensus but below the buyside's 26–28%. FCF margin is guided to mid-teens, roughly flat vs. last year's 15.7%, possibly a touch lower, broadly consistent with market expectations.
Trend-wise, most metrics are set to decelerate vs. this quarter. Margins should continue to drift lower on mix. $Shopify (SHOP.US)
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$Shopify (SHOP.US) Down bad on a double beat 🩸
EPS: $0.36 vs $0.33 estREV: $3.170B vs $3.083B est🟥 -6.55%
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Xiaomi Auto data sparks rally; Doubao to launch new paid model | Daily News Recap
0504 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Stock 1, $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) jumped over 10% intraday after Xiaomi Auto delivered 30k units in Apr. (+50% MoM). Locked-in orders for the new SU7 topped 70k.
Recovering deliveries and strong order intake validate market acceptance, supporting the full-year target of 550k vehicles. The strong share move also reflects a re-rating of the 'smartphone + AIoT + auto' strategy, lifting sentiment across the supply chain.
Focus now shifts to the capacity ramp and execution on order fulfillment. Follow-through will depend on these milestones...
Today’s Key News Recap - M
Cathie Wood reads the Bible every morning. She named her $13 billion fund after the Ark of the Covenant
At 58, she launched it after AllianceBernstein told her the idea was too risky. At 65, Bloomberg called her the best stock picker on earth. At 68, Morningstar called her the worstMeet the devout Christian who bet everything on what she believes to be the futureTimeline:• Graduated USC summa cum laude in finance• Got her first job through Arthur Laffer at 22• Spent 18 years at Jennison Associates as chief economist• Joined AllianceBernstein in 2001, managed $5 billion• Pitched actively managed ETFs focused on disruptive innovation. They said no• Left and founded ARK Invest in 2014. Her first 4 ETFs were seeded by Bill Hwang, who went to jail for blowing up $36 billion at Archegos• 2020: ARKK more than doubled. Bloomberg named her best stock picker of the year• 2022: Morningstar named ARKK the worst-performing US equity fund in Q1• 2024: Morningstar ranked ARK the #1 wealth-destroying fund family of the decade. $14.3 billion gone• Today: still running $13 billion across all funds - all-in on Tesla, CRISPR, and AIHere's what ARK is buying now:$Tesla(TSLA.US) — Tesla, the EV and autonomous driving bet she's held since 2014. Down 20% YTD$CRISPR Therap(CRSP.US) — CRISPR Therapeutics, the gene-editing company rewriting human DNA. Down 4% YTD$Tempus AI(TEM.US) — Tempus AI, an AI-powered precision medicine company. Down 23% YTD$Shopify (SHOP.US) — Shopify, the platform powering millions of online stores. Down 22% YTD$Coinbase(COIN.US) — Coinbase, the crypto exchange she bought the dip on. Down 24% YTDEvery top holding is red this year, yet she’s still buying
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BABA: E-com slips again; AI is the only lifeline---
With a two-track push in food delivery and AI, $Alibaba(BABA.US) released FY26 Q3 results pre-mkt tonight (Mar 19).
From an expectations lens, aside from softer Intl commerce growth and deeper losses in other segments, the print broadly tracked the recently lowered guidance.In absolute terms, however, performance was weak.
As the tailwind from state subsidies and the monetization uptick cycle largely faded, core commerce growth slowed markedly.The bright spot was Alibaba Cloud, which continued to post solid growth.
Bloomberg consensus was not timely updated this quarter, so its reference value is limited...
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AlibabaFinancial Analysis - N
Day 4
Operation: Added SE during the dip, currently monitoring the situation
Reason: Averaging down on my costs. Looking to sell some once it rebounds.
Insights: Already held a small position prior to earnings, and averaged down when it fell to $80. Great earnings, but competition from other ecommerce platforms like TikTok shop pressures their margins. Will monitor the situation. @Bridge Buzz SG
My Investment Diary - D
LLMs race ahead as AI apps surge; Apple revamps Siri amid tech bottlenecks｜Daily News Recap
0212 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) Doubao announced that its video-generation model Seedance 2.0 is now integrated into the Doubao app, desktop client, and web version. Users can create 5s/10s short videos from text prompts and produce clone-style videos, with upgrades to image quality, generation speed, and content fidelity. Leveraging ByteDance's ecosystem should accelerate user adoption and engagement, pushing AIGC toward mainstream, practical use...
Today’s Key News Recap - A
the $Shopify (SHOP.US) reversal was one of the nastiest earnings moves we’ve seen today
$145 in the premarket down to $110 during the openthe street not letting $Shopify (SHOP.US) run after an incredible quarter just shows how hard they are being on growth names even after good numbers but maybe because Shopify is a SaaSis anyone interested in this dip? have never had a position but have always been interestedSource: amit
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SHOP (Trans): Under the e-com Agent model, the company still monetizes primarily through payments
Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of the FY25 Q4 earnings call for $Shopify (SHOP.US). For the earnings breakdown, see 'Shopify: Solid results yet a plunge — are commerce agents a silver bullet or a poison?'.
Core metrics recap, and regional/channel performance are as follows. North America revenue rose 28% YoY, with the platform now covering over 14% of the US e-com market.International revenue grew 36% YoY. Nearly half of merchants are outside North America, and Europe Q4 GMV increased 45% (FXN +35%). Offline: GMV was up 29% YoY...
shopifyConference Minutes - D
SHOP: Solid quarter, stock plunges — Are e-com AI agents a boon or a bane? ---
As one of the most-watched plays in e-comm AI — $Shopify (SHOP.US) reported Q4 2025 results ahead of the Feb 11 U.S. pre-market. The print was strong, with in-quarter metrics and next-quarter guidance largely beating expectations. The most visible overhang is rich valuation. Specifically:
1) GMV growth held up. Contrary to market worries that Shopify's strong GMV would inevitably fade, GMV grew 31% YoY this quarter, roughly in line with last quarter with no sign of slowdown. Ex-FX tailwinds...
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