$Microsoft(MSFT.US) cleared the long call
$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) started batch selling of long calls!
$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) and $Tesla(TSLA.US) should also be about to pick up soon
Need a bit more luck 😂
This is not investment advice!
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wsj reported the advisers looked at selling, spinning off or closing the china unit, musk called it fake news, and shanghai was still about 18% of first half sales. separately nhtsa opened a preliminary probe into 1.2 million cars over suspension failures that can cost you steering. the second story is the one i actually care about and nobody is talking about it
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🌟🌟🌟My predicted closing price for $SpaceX(SPCX.US)on Wednesday 5 August 2026 is USD 99.50, placing it squarely in the "Down 3% to 10%" range. This prediction represents an approximate 8.2% drop from the last tracked price of USD 108.37.
Why is the price headed downwards?
1. Wall Street expects an earnings per share loss of -USD 0.26 per share. Any heavy spending on Capex for xAI or Starlink will trigger immediate algorithmic selloffs on Wednesday.
2. The biggest headwind is the massive insider lockup expiration scheduled for Thursday August 6 2026. Early investors and insiders will finally be unlocked to sell up to 911 million shares.
3. The Psychological USD 100 breach. Technically SpaceX has been in a severe downward tailspin since its USD 225 peak. Breaking through the USD 100 support level will trigger stop loss orders, accelerating selloff into double digits.
Is SpaceX a buy?
While buying SpaceX at 50% discount feels incredibly tempting, it could be trying to catch a falling rocket booster without a launch tower. I will let the dust clear below the psychological level before I place my long term buy orders.
🚀 Earnings Season Challenge #3: SpaceX Reports Tuesday — Beat or Miss?
$SpaceX(SPCX.US) posts its first-ever quarterly results as a listed company after the US close on Tuesday, 4 August. Two days later, on Thursday, 6 August, its IPO lock-up expires. For a stock that ha...
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Corrected typo -3% to -10%
📌My take is SPCX is likely to close between 3% to 10% on Aug 5, as earnings per se volatility will still amplify its existing 45% downward trend and more shares unlocking pressure rolling in.However over a period of 12 months more, we will surely see its picking back level $200 Uptrend, otherwise this does not make sense on Elon Musk’s game! FEW Understand he last said on X! 🚀🙏
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📌My take is SPCX is likely to close between 3% to 10% on Aug 5, as earnings per se volatility will still amplify its existing 45% downward trend and more shares unlocking pressure rolling in.However over a period of 12 months more, we will surely see its picking back level $200 Uptrend, otherwise this does not make sense on Elon Musk’s game! FEW Understand he last said on X! 🚀🙏
🚀 Earnings Season Challenge #3: SpaceX Reports Tuesday — Beat or Miss?
$SpaceX(SPCX.US) posts its first-ever quarterly results as a listed company after the US close on Tuesday, 4 August. Two days later, on Thursday, 6 August, its IPO lock-up expires. For a stock that ha...
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$Tesla(TSLA.US)Tesla’s share price has been under pressure recently, and my portfolio is currently showing a loss. While it is disappointing to see the stock keep falling, I remain hopeful about its long-term potential. Tesla is still a leader in electric vehicles, AI, energy storage, and autonomous driving. The recent decline has been driven by weaker-than-expected earnings and concerns over the pace of its AI and robotaxi rollout, but many investors continue to believe in its future growth.
For now, I will stay patient and focus on the company’s long-term progress instead of short-term price movements. If Tesla continues to improve its financial performance, expand its AI technologies, and execute its future plans successfully, I believe the share price has the potential to recover over time. Investing always requires patience, especially during periods of market volatility.
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - H
📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: Tesla Mulls China Unit Sale Ahead Of Potential Spacex Deal- WSJ - $Tesla(TSLA.US) $SpaceX(SPCX.US)
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$Apple(AAPL.US) earnings beat expectations:
Revenue: $109.4B 📈 16% vs expected $108.8B
Earnings per share: $2.02 vs expected $1.89
iPhone revenue: $54.25B vs expected $53.6B
Apple rose early 📈, then pulled back after earnings!
By the way, I rebalanced some positions to $Tesla(TSLA.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) a few days ago 😂
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Breaking: Michael Burry has disclosed his updated positions
He:• Added to Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US) short at $880• Added to Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) shorts• Added to Semiconductor ETF $SOXX short at $506.0• Added to Lululemon $Caterpillar(CAT.US) long at $118.0• Added to Flutter $Flutter ENT(FLUT.US) long • Added to DraftKings $Draftkings(DKNG.US) long at $23.40• Added to Zoetis $Zoetis(ZTS.US) long at $76.0Burry left his Tesla and Palantir untouched
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📢 𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗜𝗡: Amazon's Zoox Wins First U.S. Approval for Steering-Wheel-Free Commercial Robotaxis - $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Tesla(TSLA.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Pony AI(PONY.US) $WeRide(WRD.US) $Uber Tech(UBER.US)
👉 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀:➤ 𝗭𝗼𝗼𝘅 receives first U.S. approval for commercial 𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴-𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗲𝗹-𝗳𝗿𝗲𝗲 robotaxis.➤ 𝗡𝗛𝗧𝗦𝗔 grants exemption from rules requiring human driving controls.➤ Zoox may commercially deploy up to 𝟮,𝟱𝟬𝟬 robotaxis annually for the next 𝟮 years.➤ Approval allows Zoox to begin charging passengers, subject to local approvals.➤ Zoox currently operates pilot services in 𝗟𝗮𝘀 𝗩𝗲𝗴𝗮𝘀 and 𝗦𝗮𝗻 𝗙𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗼.➤ NHTSA imposed additional reporting requirements covering crashes and operational issues.➤ NHTSA can revoke the exemption if major safety concerns emerge.➤ Federal automated driving safety standards are targeted before the end of the current administration.➤ Tesla and Waymo continue competing to expand U.S. autonomous ride-hailing services.👉 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀:➤ Marks the first major U.S. regulatory approval for a purpose-built robotaxi without human controls.➤ Creates a regulatory pathway for next-generation autonomous vehicles beyond modified passenger cars.➤ Strengthens Amazon's position in the rapidly growing autonomous mobility market.➤ Signals increasing regulatory acceptance of fully autonomous commercial ride-hailing technology.👉 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀:𝗝𝗼𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗻, Administrator of the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA):"We can say pretty clearly that the systems in place on the Zoox exceed the equivalent performance requirements of a compliant vehicle. But we still want to make sure that the automated driving system will operate appropriately.""We have the ability to pull the exemption if we see major safety issues.""If we continue seeing issues, we will not hesitate to use the full extent of our enforcement authority."
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U.S. stocks rebounded (SPX +0.4%, NDX +0.8%) on strong $Microsoft(MSFT.US) cloud growth, reassuring investors that AI investments are paying off and no further escalation in hyper scaler Capex, outweighing inflation worries and a jump in 30-year treasury yields after the Fed held rates steady. $Meta Platforms(META.US) fell pre-market on lighter 3Q rev guidance. Investor focus remains on potential overspend on AI Capex and likely returns; S&P 500 FY’2026 EPS estimates +25% YoY to $346, equating to a 21.1x forward P/E (4.7% earnings yield) in line with 10-year treasury yields. Escalation in U.S.-Iran conflict continues. Caution advised on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining long-term earnings estimates, likely commoditization of autonomous ride-hailing, and a stretched valuation.
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MSFT FY4Q26 First Take. Amid an earnings deluge this read is a touch late, but the takeaway is clear: the leadership rotation has swung back in Microsoft's favor. Four key points:
1) Azure re-acceleration: the Jun quarter grew 43% YoY. Guidance points to 45% next quarter, with 2H growth running ahead of 1H.
2) Capex did not spike: spend was $41bn this quarter, with next quarter guided to $50bn. That implies CY 4Q at approx. $52bn and keeps the run-rate on track for CY2026 capex of ~$200bn including leases. For FY2027, management still guides to YoY growth.
A small wrinkle: by extending useful lives on long-duration assets, some items now qualify as operating leases and no longer count toward capex. This technically lowers CY2026 reported capex to ~$175bn.
3) Making money: with AI a bigger mix in cloud, GPM should have compressed, yet the actual pullback was modest. Higher revenue amplified operating leverage and drove a sharp decline in opex ratio, helped by ~5k headcount reductions this fiscal year. As a result, margins rose rather than fell.
Note an important timing point: Microsoft began ramping capex in 2Q23 and has kept it elevated for three years, but D&A remains light, with the latest quarter even down YoY. Early capex skewed to long-lived assets and useful lives were extended this time, delaying expense recognition. Starting in 3Q25, however, shorter-cycle assets like servers will be purchased in size, so the depreciation headwind has yet to fully bite.
4) Cash to spare: unlike Alphabet, Tesla, and Meta, whose aggressive spend has strained cash flows, Microsoft's cash capex excluding finance leases remains in the $30–35bn range. Based on the qualitative capex guide and revenue trajectory, free cash flow should stay positive in the new fiscal year.
Overall, Microsoft posted a 'help-yourself' quarter in a market that is turning cautious on AI infrastructure spending elsewhere. Growth, margins, and cash are all in place, and in today's setup and risk appetite, the long-awaited rotation has finally come back to Microsoft. $Microsoft(MSFT.US)
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A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.
Here's a full recap:1. The Fed held rates steady, as expected, but the decision came with 3 dissents in favor of a 25 bps hike from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. Fed Chair Warsh said the move should not be viewed as a “pause,” arguing that markets have already made their judgment and the Fed now has 7–8 weeks of incoming data to assess. He said the June core CPI print did not materially change the decision, with the broader inflation trend now mattering more. Warsh also said the Fed is doing well on the employment mandate, though the AI-driven capex surge makes it harder to judge aggregate supply and demand.2. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) reported Q2 2026 revenue of $60.8B, up 28% YoY, with advertising revenue rising 27% YoY to $59.4B. EPS fell 13% YoY to $6.18, while Reality Labs posted an operating loss of $4.62B. Daily active people increased 3% YoY to 3.60B, and Meta guided Q3 revenue to $61B–$64B. The stock is under pressure as investors focus on the EPS miss and continued AI infrastructure spending, with FY26 capex now expected at $130B–$145B. CEO Mark Zuckerberg said AI is already accelerating Meta’s core business, powering new products, and opening up new enterprise opportunities.3. Robinhood $Robinhood(HOOD.US) delivered an exceptional Q2 2026, with revenue up 32% YoY to $1.31B, net income up 48% YoY to $573M, and adjusted EBITDA up 35% YoY to $741M. Transaction-based revenue grew 44% YoY to $776M, while total platform assets rose 32% YoY to $369B. Net deposits hit an all-time high of $21.7B, with $3B already in Robinhood Banking. Gold subscribers increased 39% YoY to 4.8M, with a record 17% attach rate, while ARPU rose 24% YoY to $187. Robinhood also bought back 4.4M shares in the quarter, lowered expense guidance, now has 13 business lines doing $100M+ ARR, and its Gold Card has reached 1M holders with $17B of annualized spend.4. Retail investors sold a net $243M of single stocks yesterday, marking the largest one-day outflow since the COVID crash, according to Vanda Research.5. Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US) reported Q2 2026 revenue of $90.0B, adjusted EPS of $4.74, and operating income of $40.6B. Azure and other cloud revenue grew 43% YoY, while Microsoft Cloud revenue reached $59.3B and Intelligent Cloud revenue came in at $39.3B. Capex was $35.8B, reflecting continued AI infrastructure investment. CEO Satya Nadella said Azure revenue surpassed $100B for the first time this year, while Microsoft 365 Copilot reached more than 30M paid seats, showing growing enterprise adoption of Microsoft’s AI stack.6. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar and board chair Bret Taylor reportedly addressed employees in an internal meeting on Wednesday, with Friar telling staff that July annualized recurring revenue was already higher than the entire Q2 level. The update appears aimed at reassuring employees that OpenAI’s business remains healthy as competition intensifies from Anthropic and a growing wave of open-source AI players.7. SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX.US) is reportedly weighing acquisitions or a bid in the FCC’s July 2027 Upper C-band auction to secure terrestrial spectrum, per Semafor. The company is looking for airwaves that perform better in cities and dense areas, which could help Starlink compete more directly with $AT & T(T.US) AT&T, $Verizon(VZ.US) Verizon, and $AT & T(T.US)MUS T-Mobile. SpaceX has already bought $17B of EchoStar spectrum licenses, though its latest spectrum strategy remains fluid.8. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.8M contracts, $AT & T(T.US)SLA with 2.3M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.7M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 1.2M contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 905K contracts, $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) with 802K contracts, $AMD(AMD.US) with 654K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 631K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 615K contracts, and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 582K contracts.9. JPMorgan says Korea’s equity market has gone through an intense deleveraging phase since mid-June, with the KOSPI now down nearly 40% from its June 22 peak. The firm says the selloff was amplified by leveraged ETF flows and hedge fund positioning unwind, but now believes the leveraged ETF unwind is complete and hedge funds are roughly 90% done deleveraging. While some residual selling may continue and investors remain cautious ahead of the FOMC and hyperscaler earnings, JPMorgan says Korea’s positioning setup now looks attractive on balance, supported by cheap valuations and earnings momentum.10. U.S. senators are warning Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) against using Chinese memory chips from CXMT or YMTC, even for devices sold only in China. Lawmakers led by Jim Banks and Chuck Schumer urged Apple to abandon the talks, noting both chipmakers are on a Pentagon list of Chinese military companies, while YMTC is also on the Commerce Department’s Entity List. Senators warned that Apple qualifying the chips could pave the way for broader use later, and asked Apple to commit by August 21 not to use them while disclosing any technical information already shared. The pressure comes as the global memory market remains tight, with potential read-throughs for $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Sandisk(SNDK.US), and $SK Hynix(SKHY.US).11. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) is not giving specific 2027 CapEx guidance, saying infrastructure planning remains highly dynamic as it builds for maximum capacity in 2026 and 2027, while keeping room to expand in 2028 and beyond. On AI, Meta said it is optimistic about meaningful growth across its AI businesses and expects to share more soon. The company also said it has received multiple offers to monetize its compute at a meaningful premium to cost, but believes selling intelligence will carry significantly higher margins than selling compute directly.12. Korea’s government announced an emergency market meeting after the recent equity-market selloff, with the finance ministry also launching a 24-hour market monitoring system. The measures include new restrictions on leveraged ETF trading and caps on retail exposure to these products. Korean stocks have bounced on the news as policymakers move to stabilize markets.I know it's very ugly out there. We all are going through it. It is the greatest show on earth for the reason: you just don't know what's going to happen next. Earnings are amazing so the selloff feels more structural and rooted in deleveraging/bad sentiment around AI vs the entire AI trade itself not being real or having strong fundamentals. Some valuations really got aggressive and the unwind has taken everything down along with the war being a really ugly headwind for the entire market. Stay strong, make sure you aren't too levered, and remember that the broader markets have seen worse and will persist through this. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.Source: amit
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$Tesla(TSLA.US) some support at 280 but 265 is the level I am watching.
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Update: It's been 29 days since Michael Burry publicly went bearish on Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US)
It's down ~27% since
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A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.
Here's a full recap:1. SK Hynix $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) reported Q2’26 revenue of $54.6B vs $57.7B expected, up 257% YoY and 51% QoQ, while operating profit came in at $41.6B vs $44.2B expected, up 557% YoY. Operating margin hit a record 76%, with gross margin at 83% and EBITDA of $44.4B, or an 81% margin. Pricing remained extremely strong, with DRAM ASP up ~30% QoQ and NAND ASP up mid-50% QoQ, while Q3 guidance calls for DRAM bit growth of about 10% QoQ and NAND bit growth in the low-single digits. SK Hynix also said HBM4 shipments began in Q2 with a full ramp planned in 2H, while HBM4E samples were supplied to a major customer in 1H. Net profit surged to $64.6B, boosted by $43.5B of investment-asset gains, meaning net income exceeded revenue due to $42.8B of non-operating profit.2. The Trump administration is proposing a change that would allow the FAA to waive certain environmental review requirements for commercial launch sites, rocket launches, and spacecraft reentries, according to WSJ. The move could speed up approvals as annual launches and reentries are expected to rise from 214 this fiscal year to more than 500 over the next decade. SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX.US), Rocket Lab $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US), Blue Origin, and Stoke Space could benefit, though the proposal still has to go through public comment.3. U.S. Central Command said IRGC forces launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran today in an attempted surprise attack on U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East. CENTCOM said all Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted and that U.S. forces remain on high alert and ready to respond. Oil was up 5% after hours on the news even though it went down 4% today on earlier reports that Egypt, Qatar, and Pakistan were working to bring back the original MOU between the US and Iran. No updates on that original MOU coming back are in place yet, but the attacks after hours showcased further escalation. 4. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.4M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 1.7M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.0M contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 820K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 750K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 737K contracts, $AMD(AMD.US) with 573K contracts, $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) with 558K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 495K contracts, and $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 461K contracts.5. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) CEO Jensen Huang reportedly met with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as Nvidia faces growing scrutiny over China chip exports, per Axios. The meeting comes while the Commerce Department investigates potential violations tied to Nvidia’s Blackwell shipments to China, though the details of their discussion were not disclosed. Huang is also meeting with lawmakers from both parties as Washington prepares a broader AI framework covering advanced models, open-source AI, and China, expected by August 1.6. OpenAI and Anthropic are reportedly lobbying the Trump administration ahead of an August 1 deadline for deciding which frontier AI models should face government evaluation, per The Information. The companies want rival models from players like Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) and SpaceXAI included as well. Qualifying models could be subject to review at least 30 days before release if they raise cybersecurity or national-security concerns. OpenAI and Anthropic are also warning about Chinese open-source models allegedly built in part using their outputs, citing privacy, IP theft, and cybersecurity risks.7. Moonshot AI is reportedly looking for more Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Blackwell chips as it discusses Kimi K4, a model expected to be significantly larger than its 2.8T-parameter Kimi K3, per The Information. K3 was reportedly trained partly in China using Blackwell chips accessed through multiple Chinese cloud providers, with Moonshot linking separate 8-chip servers across providers and data centers because no single provider had enough capacity. Inference is now another constraint, with Moonshot pausing new subscriptions within 48 hours of launch as demand overwhelmed capacity. The company reportedly uses Nvidia H20 chips for inference and recommends at least 64 chips to host K3. The report also says Alibaba trained its 2.4T-parameter Qwen3.8-Max using Nvidia chips, including Blackwell.8. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said a compute oversupply could emerge within 2 years if AI models become efficient enough to handle most tasks while human attention becomes the real bottleneck. He also said oversupply risk could rise if the industry hits a scaling wall and costs stop falling, making additional compute less economically attractive.9. Bloom Energy $Bloom Energy(BE.US) crushed Q2’26 earnings, with revenue rising 166% YoY to $1.07B vs $827.6M expected and adjusted EPS jumping 680% YoY to $0.78 vs $0.41 expected. Product revenue surged 215.4% YoY to $935.4M, while adjusted gross margin expanded 604 bps to 34.3%. Bloom also raised FY26 guidance, now expecting revenue of $3.9B–$4.2B vs $3.73B expected and adjusted EPS of $2.55–$2.85 vs $2.16 expected. Management said all major U.S. hyperscalers, plus over a dozen neoclouds, AI labs, and data center operators, have approved Bloom’s power solutions for AI factories, calling Bloom a new standard for AI onsite power.10. ADP data shows U.S. private hiring has slowed for the fifth straight week, averaging just 15,000 jobs per week through July 11, less than half the 35,750 weekly pace seen in early May. At the same time, Visa $Visa(V.US) is reportedly cutting 7% of its workforce, or about 2,600 jobs, adding to signs that labor-market momentum is cooling.11. Retail investors are leaning heavily into Big Tech upside, with call options on U.S. Big Tech stocks now making up roughly 55% of all new retail options positions on a 20-day average basis, near the highest level on record. This tracks newly opened call positions, not total volume, making it a clearer read on directional retail bets. The figure is up 10 percentage points since the late-March market bottom, compared with a 57% peak during the 2020 pandemic rebound and a 35% low during the 2022 bear market.12. Every component in the semiconductor index $SOX is now trading below its 50-day moving average for the first time since April 2025, a sharp reversal from early June when all 30 members were above that level. The SOX is down 18.9% so far in July, putting it on pace for its worst monthly decline since 2008, and now trades 11% below its 50-day moving average, the widest gap since March 30. Despite the pullback, semis remain up 63% YTD. Meanwhile, the semiconductor ETF $SMH has seen $1.3B of outflows month-to-date, tracking toward its second-largest monthly outflow on record.WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.Source: amit
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Sold some $BRK.B to raise some cash💰
Bought more $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Tesla(TSLA.US) long calls
Not investment advice!