TSLA260109C430000.US

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Moderna $Moderna(MRNA.US) and Merck $Merck(MRK.US) said their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran, combined with Keytruda slowed melanoma recurrence and spread in a late-stage trial. The Phase 3 study was stopped at its first interim analysis after positive results, though detailed efficacy data have not yet been released. If the benefit holds, this would mark the first randomized Phase 3 validation of a personalized neoantigen cancer vaccine and could significantly expand the use case for mRNA technology beyond traditional vaccines. $Moderna(MRNA.US) surged 175% today, became the 2nd-best performing stock in the S&P 500 this year, and triggered an estimated $4.8B loss for short sellers. It was also the largest one-day percentage gain ever for an S&P 500 stock.

2. Crypto rallied sharply today as $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US) Bitcoin jumped roughly 8%, briefly touching about $70,000 for its biggest move since March, before settling near $68,500–$69,500. The move liquidated an estimated $1.4B–$1.7B of short positions and was driven by a mix of lower-yield pressure from Treasury buybacks, regulatory optimism, and today’s White House crypto meeting. $ETH Ethereum, $Emeren(SOL.US) Solana, and other major alts also traded higher, while crypto-linked stocks like Coinbase and Circle rallied. President Trump urged Congress to pass a “fair version” of the Clarity Act, said the U.S. should remain the leader in Bitcoin, crypto, prediction markets, and AI, and said he would listen to recommendations on whether the U.S. should accumulate more Bitcoin or crypto. Trump also said the CFTC is working to bring Hyperliquid into the U.S. in a fully compliant way, helping send HYPE higher. Overall, the tone was strongly pro-crypto, though the Clarity Act still faces political hurdles in the Senate.

3. Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) announced a proposed private offering of $4.5B of convertible senior notes. The offering includes $2.75B of notes due 2030 and $1.75B of notes due 2034, with an option for an additional $675M. Key terms, including interest rates and conversion prices, will be determined at pricing. Nebius was down 9.87% today.

4. U.S. national debt just crossed $40T, with the latest $10T added in roughly 4.5 years. The debt now equals about $116,481 per citizen and $360,794 per taxpayer, while the debt-to-GDP ratio sits around 122.7%. Federal spending is running at roughly $7.26T, compared to federal tax revenue of about $5.59T, leaving a federal budget deficit near $1.68T. Net interest on the debt is now running above $1.1T, making it one of the largest line items in the federal budget.

5. The U.S. Treasury announced it will double the size of long-term government debt buybacks after the rapid surge in Treasury yields. Repurchases of $2B will now increase to at least $4B, with the Treasury saying the move is meant to provide “liquidity support” for bonds maturing in 10 to 30 years as total U.S. debt nears $40T. The situation is like someone with a 30-year mortgage at 3.25% refinancing into a 1-year adjustable-rate loan at 5.75% because the market won’t absorb the longer-term debt cleanly. In other words, longer-duration, lower-cost debt is being replaced with shorter-term, higher-cost financing. Now apply that dynamic across trillions of dollars in U.S. government debt. That is the pressure Treasury is trying to manage as long-term yields keep rising.

6. Starlink is reapplying for India approval for its Gen 2 network, seeking authorization for nearly 30,000 LEO satellites operating at 340–615 km, including direct-to-device connectivity. India previously approved only Starlink’s 4,408-satellite Gen 1 network after rejecting the earlier Gen 2 application. The move comes as India is still finalizing D2D rules and satellite spectrum pricing, with Jio, Amazon Leo, and OneWeb also competing for the market, according to ET.

7. Goldman Sachs is preparing a roughly $1.15B junk bond to finance a Virginia data center leased to CoreWeave $Coreweave(CRWV.US). The deal is expected in September, with Goldman moving forward even as investors demand higher yields for AI infrastructure debt tied to CoreWeave. The financing comes after a separate $3.5B CoreWeave-backed deal recently priced at a 10% yield, underscoring how capital-intensive AI data center buildouts have become and how much credit markets are now focused on AI infrastructure risk.

8. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.9M contracts, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.6M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.9M contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 1.0M contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 932K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 886K contracts, $Strategy(MSTR.US) with 789K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 745K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 694K contracts, and $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 658K contracts.

9. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) has reportedly discussed investing in AI data supplier Mercor as part of a funding round that would value the startup at $20B, according to The Information. Mercor hires specialists across science, law, finance, and other fields to train and evaluate AI models, producing higher-quality data for complex tasks. Nvidia paid Mercor tens of millions of dollars last quarter and used its data to develop its two latest Nemotron models, with several Mercor employees now reportedly focused almost entirely on Nvidia-related work. The relationship is expanding as Nvidia invests more heavily in Nemotron, its open AI model family. Mercor has also worked with OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic, while annualized gross revenue reportedly reached $2B in June, double its level from the start of the year.

10. Webull $Webull(BULL.US) reported Q2’26 revenue of $198.8M, beating estimates of $181M, up 51% YoY and 24% sequentially. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.12 versus $0.03 expected, up 140% YoY, while net income reached $24.4M and adjusted operating profit was $62.6M, representing a 31.5% margin. Trading-related revenue rose 66% YoY to $147.7M. Customer assets grew 79% YoY to $28.5B, registered users reached 28.2M, funded accounts hit 5.13M, equity notional volume rose 73% YoY to $279B, and options contract volume increased 68% YoY to 213M. Webull also launched Vega Analyst and announced the acquisition of Pi Securities in Thailand.

11. President Trump is reportedly set to reduce tariffs on automobiles imported from Canada from 25% to 15% as part of a broader trade deal, according to Bloomberg. The current tariff applies to the non-U.S. content of vehicles produced in Canada, and that same content provision is expected to apply under the new 15% rate. U.S. and Canadian negotiators have also discussed whether to expand the exemption to include additional content, though no final decision has been made.

12. U.S. margin debt fell by a record $85B in July to $1.42T, marking the largest monthly decline ever and the first monthly drop since March. For context, the prior record decline was $80B in January 2022, right as the bear market began. The pullback follows a massive $198B surge in margin debt across May and June, the largest two-month increase on record. Even after July’s historic decline, margin debt is still up $518B, or 58%, since the start of 2025.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

⚡ 𝐔𝐏𝐃𝐀𝐓𝐄: $Einride AB(ENRD.US) Einride to Deploy 500 Tesla Semi Trucks Across Major U.S. Freight Corridors - $Tesla(TSLA.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US)

👉 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀:

➤ 𝗘𝗶𝗻𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗲 plans to deploy 𝟱𝟬𝟬 𝗧𝗲𝘀𝗹𝗮 𝗦𝗲𝗺𝗶 electric trucks.

➤ Deployment begins in 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 and spans 24 months.

➤ Trucks will serve 𝗔𝗺𝗮𝘇𝗼𝗻 and other Einride customers.

➤ Deployment covers freight corridors across 𝗳𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗨.𝗦. 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀.

➤ Addition will 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲 Einride's deployed electric truck fleet.

➤ Tesla Semis will operate through Einride's 𝗦𝗮𝗴𝗮 𝗔𝗜 platform.

➤ Einride targets roughly $𝟴𝟬𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 in potential long-term annual recurring revenue.

➤ Saga AI has logged more than 𝟭𝟵 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 electric miles.

➤ Platform recorded 𝟰𝟮,𝟬𝟬𝟬 optimization sessions across seven years.

👉 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀:

➤ Represents a major commercial deployment for 𝗧𝗲𝘀𝗹𝗮 𝗦𝗲𝗺𝗶.

➤ Could accelerate electrification across high-volume U.S. freight corridors.

➤ Provides Einride capacity to convert its $𝟴𝟬𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 pipeline into revenue.

➤ Expands real-world adoption of 𝗔𝗜-powered electric freight management.

👉 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀:

𝗥𝗼𝗼𝘇𝗯𝗲𝗵 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶, Chief Executive Officer of Einride:

"This deployment is yet another proof point that we can execute at the scale our customers demand,"

𝗗𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗹𝗲𝘆, Director of Semi at Tesla:

"Einride is at the forefront of sustainable freight and we are thrilled to deepen our relationship with them through this order of 500 Semis."

Another win for corporations, another loss for Americans

Companies that paid $0 in federal income tax despite profiting billions in 2025

• Disney $Disney(DIS.US): $1.74B

• CVS $CVS Health(CVS.US): $1.38B

• Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US): $1.19B

• United Airlines $United Airlines(UAL.US): $901M

• Coinbase $Coinbase(COIN.US): $340M

• Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US): $332M

Your tax break:

• $0

I think $Uber Tech(UBER.US) looks compelling here.

At ~$76, I think fair value is closer to $120.

The numbers are pretty compelling:

- Uber generated ~$9.8B of FCF in 2025, up 42% YoY

- Consensus has FCF reaching ~$11B in 2026 and ~$13B in 2027

- Uber now has 200M+ monthly users and processes 40M+ trips per day

- Uber trades around 12x projected 2027 FCF despite FCF still expected to grow ~18% that year

The obvious reason for the discount is autonomous vehicles. The market is worried Waymo/Tesla eventually disintermediate Uber.

I think the opposite outcome could be underpriced: Uber becomes the demand, distribution and payments layer connecting hundreds of millions of consumers with AV fleets. I am not fully sold on this thesis…but what if that’s how it plays out? Would Uber not be the most obvious name trading at an irrationally priced discount?

Uber has 200M+ monthly users and enormous existing demand. An AV manufacturer has to build the cars, operate the fleet, maintain them, reposition them, and then somehow acquire millions of riders.

That’s why I find the valuation interesting here.

You aren’t paying 30x FCF and hoping Uber wins AV…you’re paying roughly 12x 2027 FCF for the existing business and getting the possibility that Uber becomes a major AV distribution layer.

If AVs destroy Uber’s moat, the discount makes sense, the question is if that will actually happen.

Using roughly $13B of 2027 FCF:

Bear case: 17x FCF → $108

Base case: 19x FCF → $120/share

Bull case: 22x FCF → $140/share

No position yet but the risk/reward is compelling.

Source: amit