BofA: Anthropic & AMD Deal
Key Takeaways from the Anthropic Partnership> Partnership Details: AMD announced a partnership with Anthropic to deploy up to 2GW of AMD MI450 Series AI GPUs starting in the first half of 2027. > Financial Commitments: AMD committed to a $5 billion strategic equity investment and will use Anthropic's Claude in research and development (R&D) projects. > Expanded Engagements: This deal expands AMD's MI engagements to four major customers: Anthropic, OpenAI (likely via Microsoft cloud), Oracle, and Meta. > Financial Upside: The engagement indicates at least a $10 billion to $15 billion upside to current consensus expectations of $35 billion to $40 billion for CY27 MI sales. Analyst Event & Product Outlook> Advancing AI Event: Pre-announcements involving Microsoft and Anthropic serve as incremental positives ahead of AMD's analyst event. > Server CPU Roadmap: The event is expected to spotlight the server CPU roadmap (specifically upcoming Venice CPUs) and how they compete against NVIDIA's Vera in the agentic AI era. > CoWoS Supply & Sales Potential: Latest TSMC Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) supply estimates point to roughly 1.4 million MI450 Series GPU units in CY27, which could surpass $40 billion in sales assuming a $30k average selling price (ASP).$AMD(AMD.US)
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$Intel(INTC.US)Intel is increasingly being viewed as the “American TSMC,” but investors should be careful not to confuse policy support with business execution. Much of the recent optimism has been driven by the Trump administration‘s push to strengthen domestic semiconductor manufacturing rather than a dramatic improvement in Intel’s fundamentals.
Government funding and strategic backing are meaningful, but subsidies alone don‘t translate into profits overnight. Building advanced fabs, improving yields, and winning foundry customers is a multi-year process with significant execution risk.
For now, Intel has gained a stronger strategic position, but the path from policy support to sustainable earnings remains long. The market may continue to reward the narrative, yet the real test will be whether those investments eventually generate competitive returns rather than simply expanding capacity.
@Captain's Treasure
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - Y
everyone talking micron and hynix but tsmc is the source of this whole move. the 2027 wafer price hike report is what lit the fuse, up to 10% on advanced nodes. tsm only +3% today which feels light given they set off the rally. adding on this one
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Former Senior Post Silicon Validation Engineer at NVIDIA on CPO:
"Eventually, CPO is where the technology is converging and going to converge. Whoever comes with a reliable CPO product first, they will see a huge demand. There is absolutely no doubt about that. All these NPO and LPO are temporary compromise, for the lack of a better word."Current State & Commercial Timeline> Experimental Phase: CPO technology is currently in pilot and experimental stages, with no commercial products available yet. > Timeline for Adoption: Initial CPO products are tentatively expected around 2028, though unexpected delays could occur due to major, unresolved engineering hurdles. > Demand Dynamics: Once CPO is successfully and reliably commercialized, demand will experience an explosive surge, limited only by production supply rather than market interest. Key Technical Hurdles> Thermal Management: Compute chips generate kilowatts of heat, whereas optical engines are exceptionally sensitive to temperature changes (even minor shifts can alter laser wavelengths). > Glass Substrates & Via Drilling: Transitioning from traditional organic substrates to glass is necessary for scale, but drilling microscopic, precise vias into glass without causing micro-cracking remains a massive challenge. > Laser Integration: Internal laser setups face severe thermal interference from compute chips, while external laser setups struggle with high optical loss when trying to focus light onto extremely thin substrate layers. Competitive & Technological Landscape> Interim Solutions: Technologies like NPO (Near-Packaged Optics) and LPO (Linear Drive Pluggable Optics) are viewed as temporary compromises; once CPO matures, the industry will fully converge on it, causing demand for traditional pluggables to decline. > Key Players: Major industry stakeholders—including TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and Amkor—are heavily investing in packaging R&D, with TSMC viewed as a dominant pioneer via solutions like CoWoS and CoPoS. > Laser & Component Suppliers: Lumentum is positioned well ahead of competitors in the optical landscape, supported by strategic partnerships and investments (such as NVIDIA's capital backing).Bill of Materials (BOM) Breakdown> Packaging: Forms the largest share of the CPO BOM (~50% to 55%) and represents the hardest problem to commoditize. > Light Sources / Lasers: Accounts for roughly one-third of the BOM. > Cooling Solutions: Makes up the remaining portion, playing an equally vital role due to severe thermal constraints. Optical Circuit Switching (OCS)> Role in Future Infrastructure: Once signals are converted to light via CPO, OCS will become critical to route traffic dynamically across large clusters of GPUs without re-converting signals back to electrical (which destroys power-saving benefits). > Current Limitations: Existing OCS solutions lack packet-decoding capabilities and rely on rigid, round-robin scheduling schemes, meaning optical switching technology must heavily evolve alongside CPO. $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) $Amkor Tech(AMKR.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) - S
$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) with follow thru back over 10ema a move and hold over 425ish next on my radar if price wants it. ER out of the way for this quarter.
Source: Sunrise Trader
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Semiconductors
$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) and $ASML(ASML.US)
These two cash cows are what I've always been bullish on
Their ability to generate consistent profits
And their deep moats
The only downside is that they aren't US companies
Not investment advice!
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A former TSMC deputy manager was recruited by a Communist Chinese Party spy to steal semiconductor trade secrets and establish a new firm in China, China Semiconductor Materials Analysis Co. (CSMAC), media report, adding prosecutors are seeking a 7-year sentence for Mr. Chen for the theft of 21 items from TSMC considered trade secrets, and other violations of the National Security Act. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #semiconductors
Source: Dan Nystedt
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More custom silicon and rack options means AI infra gets commoditized and deployed everywhere. Google with “Frozen v2” and AMD with Helios on Azure lowers cost per token, so usage explodes. Nvidia still sells the most GPUs, but TSMC, power, cooling, and networking all win bigger. This isn’t anti-Nvidia, it’s pro-AI scale.
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — AMD Lands Microsoft for Helios
Anti-Nvidia silicon war heats up: AMD-Microsoft Helios deal + Google's "Frozen v2" chip open two new fronts against Nvidia the same day. STI takes a breather while DBS eyes S$1T wealth AUM by 2030.
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$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)
Rumour says orders may slow down in the next couple of quarters but it is not a complete pivot away from AI. Chips are still critical going into 2027 and maybe 2028. Will continue to track earnings calls from hyperscalers to determine next steps.
#Trade Showcase: Trade, Show and Earn Rewards!
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - E
J.P. Morgan: TSMC CoWoS
CoWoS Capacity Expansion> Capacity Increase: J.P. Morgan is raising its CoWoS capacity estimates for 2026–2028 by 1%, 9%, and 11% respectively. > Targets: TSMC’s CoWoS capacity is expected to reach 115k, 190k, and 225k wafers per month (wfpm) by the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028. > Strategic Shifts: TSMC is accelerating expansion at AP7 Phase 2 (reallocating capacity from SoIC to CoWoS) and is selectively outsourcing interposer manufacturing to Vanguard. > OSAT Role: Capacity for CoWoS-like processes at Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT) providers is expected to reach 15k, 50k, and 85k wfpm by the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028, primarily to support server CPU packaging.3D SoIC and CoPoS Outlook> 3D SoIC: The capacity ramp is now more focused on 2028 (projected 65k wfpm) to align with mass adoption in accelerators. While 2027 may see a slight push-out to accommodate CoWoS demand, key customers like AWS, OpenAI, Meta, and NVIDIA (Feynman versions) are expected to adopt SoIC in 2028. > CoPoS: This technology is currently in the engineering stage. Risk production is expected in early 2028, with mass production likely in 2029.Customer Demand and Forecasts> NVIDIA: CoWoS allocations for NVIDIA are rising, reflecting strong demand for new CPUs (Vera in 2027, Rosa in 2028) and accelerators. All NVIDIA accelerator and Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) products are on CoWoS-L at TSMC. > AMD: Estimates for AMD are rising significantly in 2027–2028, driven by the Venice server CPU family, which will largely utilize a CoWoS-L-like process from ASE. > CPUs and ASICs: Server CPUs (e.g., NVDA Vera, AMD Venice) have emerged as a primary upside catalyst for CoWoS demand in 2027. Other programs like Google’s TPU and AWS’s Trainium continue to ramp, though ASICs for companies like Microsoft and Meta remain at a smaller scale. > Supply Chain Roles: AWS and Alchip are expected to remain the primary suppliers for the Neuronlink and UALink versions of Trainium 4. Marvell may take on some share for specific variants that utilize "NVLink fusion" based interconnects. While Trainium 4 volumes in 2028 are expected to be relatively flat compared to Trainium 3 volumes in 2027, the wafer consumption and average selling prices (ASPs) for these chips are expected to be significantly higher.> 2027 as a Key Ramp Year: While TPU and Trainium are currently the only large-scale ASIC programs, 2027 is viewed as a key year for others to ramp, with a heavy focus on Meta’s MTIA and Microsoft’s Maia.Other Technological Notes> Intel EMIB: Intel’s EMIB-T process is seeing incremental demand, notably for the MediaTek TPUv9 Humufish. However, substrate capacity remains a limiting factor for this process. Intel’s EMIB process is positioned as a cheaper alternative, with costs estimated at approximately 50% of TSMC's CoWoS-L packaging technology. Current substrate-level yields for the EMIB process are around 60%, which is considered acceptable by the researchers for a process 1–1.5 years away from ramp. However, substrate capacity is viewed as a key limiting factor for capacity expansion because the processes for substrate build-up and embedding the silicon bridge steps currently have low yields.$Intel(INTC.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)
+1 - V
Rescued $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)
Today need to rescue $Tesla(TSLA.US) too
Add some underlying shares first 😂
Not investment advice!
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AMD Into Advancing AI: The Setup Nobody Is Talking About
Okay so here is the deal. AMD is down about 17% from its peak heading into the single most important event of its year, and I think people are sleeping on this. What actually drops on July 22 The Adva...
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AMD’s latest chips made using TSMC’s 2nm production will debut this week at AMD Advancing AI 2026 conference (July 22-23), media report:
Venice: 2nm server CPUInstinct MI450, MI455: 2nm AI accelerators to compete with Nvidia RubinInstinct MI550 (rumored 4-compute-die design, with advanced 3D packaging): AI accelerator to compete with Rubin Ultra $AMD(AMD.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)Source: Dan Nystedt
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TSMC and other high energy users may soon see costs rise: Taiwan lawmakers will on Wednesday (7/22) review a proposal to require major electricity consumers (TSMC is the biggest) to install their own power supply for 5MW or more power contracts, media report, noting around 400 companies in semiconductors, AI data centers, optoelectronics, and more will be affected. The idea is to avoid straining Taiwan’s power grid. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) $Bloom Energy(BE.US) $GE Aerospace(GE.US) #semiconductors
Source: Dan Nystedt
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I'm still in a daze. I bet on this entry. My FOMO had been suppressed for a long time, and now the drop has cured my FOMO, but it gave me panic disorder.
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Chips Break Ranks as Inflation Cools
Inflation cooled again and the market pushed higher, but the AI trade split apart. Big Tech and Apple (a new record) led the S&P up, while memory chips got dumped: SK Hynix -9%, Micron -8%. Add SpaceX...
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- TSMC spent about $14B in the two years before 28nm ramped in 4Q11 and about $76B in the two years before N2's 2Q26 ramp, a 5.7x increase across seven node generations
- The largest single jump came at N3- TSMC does not disclose capex by node so a total capex over the 8 quarters before each ramp a good proxy though not all that capex goes to that node- Leading-edge costs keep going up by double-digit %Source: Sravan Kundojjala
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$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) unity of knowledge and action
Easier said than done
It goes against human nature 🤔
Bros, have a great weekend!
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BREAKING: Broadcom is diversifying away from long-time foundry partner TSMC. Lego will be the new manufacturing partner for Broadcom's flagship hyperscaler ASIC products in 2028. Broadcom President of Semiconductor Solutions, Charlie Kawwas, has already showed off package samples at RAISE Summit in Paris last week. With TSMC supply constrained, customers are alternative sources of chip supply from unexpected places. One of the major differentiators Lego brings is industry leading defect repair, "plug and play" chiplet interoperability, as well as built in self-alignment technology for 3D stacking. Mattel and Hasbro were also under consideration, but Lego's proven track record won out in the end. We have ordered multiple Millennium Falcon Sets set to our Portland teardown lab for competitive teardown analysis.
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$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) | 𝐃𝐀 𝐃𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐬𝐨𝐧 maintains 𝐁𝐮𝐲 on 𝐓𝐚𝐢𝐰𝐚𝐧 𝐒𝐞𝐦𝐢, 𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐏𝐓 𝐭𝐨 $𝟓𝟎𝟎 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 $𝟒𝟓𝟎
Analyst raises PT on strong Q2 earnings and increased capex guidance driven by demand for leading-edge tech and emerging Agentic AI markets.
