$Tesla(TSLA.US) earnings tonight. Here's the cheat sheet:
1. Auto Margins ex Credits: I expect auto gross margin ex-credits to be slightly above the Street's 18.5% because volumes were so strong. It was 19.2% in March. In theory, it should be flat quarter over quarter.2. Deliveries: Key question is what drove the surge in June deliveries, up 25% y/y compared to up 6% in March? I believe high gas prices is a sustainable tailwind.3. Capex. Here’s the negative wildcard. Last quarter, when the company guided capex to increase this year from $20B to $25B, it triggered a sell-off in after-hours trading, underscoring that the topic matters. I expect the company to guide to a number above $25B this year and give hints that 2027 should be above the Street’s $21B level.4. Robotaxi. In July they added 3 cities and now operate small fleets in 7 cities. They’ve said two more cities coming, Las Vegas and Phoenix. I expect 3 more by year end, getting us to 10 in total. Street is expecting 2-3 more this year.5. FSD. In March active paid subs grew 51% YY to 1.28m. In June I expect growth of 40%. The strong June delivery number should result in an acceleration in active sub growth in September because sales in the US come with one month free that acts as a top of funnel. FSD is approved in the Netherlands (April) and waiting for approval in the EU and China.6. Cybercab: I expect Elon to move the target for production ramp from late 2026 to first half of 2027. My take: Investors are already expecting the slip.7. Optimus. I’m not expecting much substance. Long term, 2040, this should be more than half of sales.Toy department: SpaceX acquiring Tesla: We won’t get anything tonight on the topic. I put the odds at 80% that Tesla will be acquired by SpaceX within the next five years.Source: Gene Munster
