Tesla trend analysis

Five consecutive days of gains have perfectly offset the floating losses from the previous two weeks. Last night still saw a breakout with increased volume, but the upward momentum slowed compared to previous days (exactly as King analyzed in earlier articles). Focus on the support level at 270 from last October, as the probability of a false breakout increases. Breaking through the 200-day moving average and the 5-day crossing above the 10-day to form a golden cross indicates a relatively strong short-term uptrend. Since the start of the year, trapped positions have been cut significantly, and short squeezes have also digested much of the pressure, so short-term selling pressure isn’t as severe.

The recent rally in Tesla's stock price is largely credited to Trump and retail investors. Trump hinted that the new tariffs on April 2nd would be more targeted, with possible exemptions for some countries. This news alleviated market fears of a full-blown trade war. As a global supply chain company, Tesla also saw temporary relief in cost pressures.

Retail investors also contributed to Tesla's rise. Beyond short covering, Musk’s fanatical followers—especially Korean retail investors—went on a buying spree. Over the past two weeks, retail investors poured $7.3 billion into Tesla, showing strong bottom-fishing sentiment. Tesla’s stock had fallen for nine straight weeks, halving from its 2022 peak. No stock rises endlessly; oversold conditions and improving market sentiment naturally fueled the rebound.

Short-term trading is viable, but it’s not yet time for long-term bottom-fishing. Tesla’s fundamentals remain unclear. While Cathie Wood predicts Tesla could hit $2,600 in five years, with Robotaxi contributing 90% of its value, reality paints a different picture: FSD’s China rollout is uncertain, Optimus is still in planning, European sales are plummeting, and Musk’s political stance has hurt the company.

Tesla’s continued rise today reflects panic-driven recovery, not a fundamental revaluation. Historically, policy-sensitive assets fluctuate with news—like the 2024 tariff fears triggering sell-offs and today’s rebound on tariff easing. Watch for a potential pullback post-April 2nd as expectations materialize. Short-term traders can ride the rebound, but long-term investors should wait for two signals: (1) FSD and Optimus commercialization exceeding expectations, and (2) global sales bottoming out. Until fundamentals improve, Tesla’s stock will remain at the mercy of Washington and Musk. $Tesla(TSLA.US) $TSLA 2X Long ETF(TSLL.US) $AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF(TSLQ.US) $GraniteShares 1.25 Long TSLA Daily ETF(TSL.US) $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US)