US stocks are like a roller coaster every day, should we short or go long? This article will help you clarify your thoughts.

Part I: Recent Trading Review

The U.S. stock market made a stunning comeback the day before yesterday with a strong rebound from oversold conditions, but then faltered again yesterday, opening high and closing low.

$S&P 500(.SPX.US)  fell 1.57%

$NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) fell 2.15%

$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) fell 0.84%

The above only accounts for intraday declines, with continued drops in after-hours and overnight trading.

And don’t forget, the Nasdaq opened high and closed low. Taking the Nasdaq as an example, it opened at 16,181 and closed at 15,603. While the official drop was 2.15%, the intraday decline actually reached 3.7%.

The day before yesterday, I posted an article suggesting that now is not the time to buy the dip but to short instead. That day, I bought UVIX at $90 and was stuck for two days, with the floating loss nearly halving at its peak. Fortunately, I held on and sold in the after-hours market this morning, breaking even and even making a small 10% profit.

Reflecting on this investment decision, the risk was quite high. If I had panicked and cut losses early (there were indeed several intense mental struggles, making it a terrible investment experience), I would have sold just before the rebound. As some commenters pointed out, shorting when the index has already dropped 20% in the short term—does that even make sense?

So, even though I made money, this was a failed speculation with a risk-reward ratio as high as 5x.

Part II: Current Market Outlook

The current U.S. stock market’s bullish and bearish forces are very clear.

Bulls: 1. Primarily from natural demand for covering positions; 2. Partly from speculators trying to buy the dip.

Bears: 1. Investors cutting losses, especially those pessimistic about the future; 2. Medium- to long-term macro impacts from tariffs and retaliatory tariffs (including inflation and friction); 3. Speculators betting on further market declines; 4. The golden words of Comrade Trump.

Personally, I’m still leaning bearish. The market has fallen too fast, leaving too many people with no chance to escape. For example, if a stock you just bought drops 15% and keeps falling, then suddenly rebounds a week later to break even—would you sell? This creates pressure, and if the market doesn’t recover quickly after a steep drop, this pressure will only grow stronger.

But whether my market view is correct or not is actually irrelevant. The current market could suddenly surge due to exhausted bearish sentiment or a slowdown in tariff policies—or it could plunge due to unexpected retaliatory measures or a panic-inducing comment from Trump.

The market’s internal dynamics are very clear: short-term covering drives rallies, while medium- to long-term concerns like tariffs, inflation, and recession fuel declines. But the wildcard here is Trump—an unpredictable figure who might express willingness to negotiate one moment and then publicly tell other countries to “kiss my ass” the next. Can you predict that? Not a chance.

So, don’t be fooled by daily double-digit swings—this market is full of traps. Making money here is incredibly difficult.

Part III: What to Do Next?

In eight words: Hold gold, cash is king.

The logic for gold remains strong—whether from a market turmoil (safe-haven) perspective, interest rate cuts, or inflation. Apart from short-term profit-taking pressure, I see no reason for gold to fall. While there might be some volatility due to recent gains, it’s nothing to worry about. Consider buying the dips—the gold bull market is far from over.

Personally, aside from gold, I’ve liquidated all my positions. Until the situation becomes clearer, I won’t hold any overnight positions except for occasional day trading.

I don’t recommend going all-in on gold at once. Being bullish on gold is a medium- to long-term play. Keep some dry powder and look for opportunities to add on dips for a steadier approach.