Market manipulation, insider trading! Tonight, strongly bearish!
First of all, I declare that I do not hold any short positions. I even made some profit from gold yesterday, so I'm not venting frustration due to losses. I'm just expressing my views objectively.
What happened last night is probably clear to everyone. At 9:37 PM Beijing time, Trump posted a tweet on his Truth Social account: "Now is a great time to buy!" followed by the stock code of Trump Media Group, DJT.
About four hours later, Trump announced a suspension of additional tariffs on 75 countries, causing U.S. stocks to skyrocket instantly. $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) surged 12.16%, marking the highest single-day gain since the subprime mortgage crisis.
That's the surface story. Now let's look at what happened behind the scenes.
Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that when Trump raised the tariff threat on April 3, the Trump family fund held $38 billion worth of Nasdaq put options. On that day, the Nasdaq plummeted 5.97%, while Jared Kushner's Affinity Fund profited $5.7 billion by shorting $Apple(AAPL.US) and $Tesla(TSLA.US). The short-selling profits were transferred to the Dubai Digital Gold Exchange via a British Virgin Islands SPV.
The bears feasted, and now it's the bulls' turn.
Yesterday, around the time Trump posted, unusual activity was spotted in S&P 500's zero-day options. Someone bought over 50,000 contracts with strike prices between $532 and $535 when the underlying was still at $493.
Some might say, "But the price never reached $532—how did they make money?" Here's a quick explanation: First, these zero-day, deep-out-of-the-money options are dirt cheap, usually as worthless as toilet paper. But as the underlying price approaches the strike price, the delta coefficient increases rapidly, causing the option price to spike. For example, this call option went from a few cents to nearly $10 at its peak—a 250x return.
So, there's no need to wait for expiration. Just selling during the price surge can make a fortune. Assuming one call costs $4, 50,000 calls would be $200,000. A 250x return means $50 million in profit.
Trump wouldn't care about such small change, but could this be a favor for friends or associates? And this is just the tip of the iceberg—how many others are quietly profiting from ordinary options?
You might ask, "How is this possible? What's the SEC doing?"
Well, about 500 SEC employees were "let go" last month after receiving generous severance packages—a clear foreshadowing.
Forget the SEC; even higher authorities can't investigate.
Such insider trading investigations typically fall under the jurisdiction of the Senate Judiciary Committee or the Senate Finance Committee. But currently, both committees are chaired by Republicans.
This is rotten-to-the-core political corruption—absolute power corrupts absolutely?
Even Democratic Senator Schiff couldn't stomach it, calling for a congressional investigation into whether Trump manipulated the market regarding tariffs.
Schiff can investigate using his office team, but without subpoena power, he's powerless.
After analyzing Trump, let's see if the tariff suspension truly eliminates underlying risks.
First, the suspension itself is bizarre. When Trump announced it, U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer was testifying on Capitol Hill, praising Trump's tariff policy—until Trump suddenly suspended tariffs.
Greer: WTF, dude? Not cool!
Nevada Democrat Steven Horsford grilled Greer about the suspension.
Greer awkwardly replied: "Uh... I just learned about this decision minutes ago."
Horsford mocked: "Looks like your boss just pulled the rug out from under you (sold you out) by suspending tariffs."
After the hearing, check where Greer was standing—he probably dug a three-bedroom apartment out of embarrassment.
It's laughable, but it reflects the capriciousness of Trump's policies. When tariffs were imposed, the Treasury Secretary was clueless; when suspended, the Trade Representative was blindsided. Chaos reigns.
In a follow-up interview, Trump was asked why he reversed his "no exceptions" stance. He replied: "Sometimes when you hit a wall, you need to dig under it, go around it, or climb over it." Then, seeing no reaction, he turned to his aides: "Right, guys?"
Watching them nod seriously was hilarious~
Actually, the reporter was being polite. I'd have said, "Are you full of shit?"
Now, about the tariff suspension: Which 75 countries got exemptions? Mostly Trump's lackeys like Japan, South Korea, and Mexico, plus some insignificant nations. The EU has passed countermeasures, Canada has cut ties, and let's not forget the uncompromising Eastern power.
Major powers know: Strike first to avoid a hundred blows!
Thus, I believe the suspension doesn't solve the core issue—it only adds to market uncertainty.
Midway through writing, I felt something was off, so I bought some UVIX.
Tonight, let the hunt begin.
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