The S&P 500 has risen for three consecutive days. Is the technical short-term bull market in U.S. stocks about to peak?

Today's View and Strategy:

U.S. stocks continued to rise yesterday, marking three consecutive days of gains, with the S&P 500 up 6.33% over three days. Currently, the S&P 500 is between the 20-day and 30-day moving averages. The support validity of the 20-day line has yet to be tested, while the resistance of the 30-day line is very real.

Additionally, as mentioned earlier, the high of 5481 from the April 9 rally remains difficult to break through. Until the tariff crisis is actually resolved, U.S. stocks are likely to fluctuate between 5000 and 5500. Currently facing dual pressure from the 30-day line and the resistance line, the key issue is that last night's rise lacked volume support, with trading volume lower than most trading days since the tariff turmoil. Therefore, tonight's outlook leans bearish.

So, has the crisis really been resolved? Let’s analyze the logic behind the recent rally.

1. Easing tensions with the East

Trump previously claimed negotiations with the East had begun, but the East explicitly stated it would not engage in talks until the U.S. cancels all additional tariffs—a clear slap in the face. Yesterday, Trump again said meetings with the East had taken place, but the Commerce Department has yet to comment. I remain skeptical.

2. Multiple Fed officials stated that if data supports it, they will take action (rate cuts) in June.

The key here is "data support." The issue is that the impact of Trump’s tariffs on inflation takes time. The lower-than-expected March CPI doesn’t tell the full story. Even with 90-day exemptions for some countries, there’s still a 10% base tariff increase, not to mention the ongoing stalemate with the East.

A trade disruption with the East, a major importer, would force U.S. companies to seek higher-cost alternatives or reduce supply—both of which would directly affect end prices, likely reflected in the May and June CPI.

The market interprets this as a likely rate cut in June, but I see it more as: "If the data is good, I’ll cut rates; if not, don’t blame me—blame Trump."

From these two points, the logic behind the recent rally is shaky. The rebound over the past two days seems more like a short-term "technical bull market" nearing its peak. Chasing highs now requires extreme caution.