Major positive news has landed. Can TSLA still rise tonight?

On June 23, $Tesla(TSLA.US) finally officially launched Robotaxi on the road. This news has sparked a lot of discussion in the market—after all, Musk has been hyping Robotaxi for years, and now it's finally 'on the move.'

But the question arises: With such a major positive development, how will Tesla's stock price react? Can it still rise tonight?

Here's my take: I expect Tesla's stock price to rise slightly tonight, but after a potential surge, it may pull back. Pay close attention to the timing in your operations.

First, let me explain why I think there's still room for a small rise tonight.

The official launch of Robotaxi is undoubtedly a positive. Unlike previous hype through PPTs and press conferences, this is a real-world deployment, marking a critical first step in Tesla's Robotaxi business logic. Long-term, this means Tesla is no longer just a car seller but has the potential to become an AI-driven mobility platform, which could significantly expand its valuation.

Especially in pilot cities like Austin, where regulatory, infrastructure, and data capabilities are highly supportive, once Robotaxi operations begin, data will accumulate rapidly, and AI's learning efficiency and stability will improve. We all know that AI training relies on data volume—the more data, the more stable and faster the progress. So, if there are no issues in the early stages, it could enter an accelerated growth cycle.

But we must understand: Robotaxi's valuation re-rating ≠ short-term surge, which is why I only predict a 'small rise' rather than a major rally.

The reason is simple: the market has already been 'warming up' to this Robotaxi news since May. Tesla's stock has already rebounded, and the expectation of Robotaxi's launch is already priced in. For some short-term investors, this news is an opportunity to cash in profits.

Technically, Tesla is currently in a 'wait-and-see' phase. The stock is oscillating around the Bollinger Band midline, with resistance above and no breakdown below. MACD remains in a death cross, KDJ is overbought, RSI is hovering around 50, and trading volume has been declining for days. The clear signal: everyone is waiting for the next move, not rushing to decide.

That's why I say that while there may be a rise tonight, if the price surges intraday, be wary of short-term profit-taking. A typical scenario would be—strong pre-market sentiment, an early surge at open, but lack of follow-through volume, leading to a pullback and closing with a small green candle and long upper wick.

From an operational standpoint, my advice is don't chase highs, wait for confirmation.

If the price surges above $340 tonight, consider reducing positions, as this is a sensitive post-news moment. If it later pulls back on low volume—say, to around $320 or even $315—watch for buying opportunities.

Long-term, I remain optimistic. As long as it doesn't break below $300, Tesla's long-term thesis remains intact. Once Robotaxi operations stabilize and expand to more cities, its valuation will no longer be tied to car sales. By then, it might not be a slow accumulation but a rapid surge that leaves many behind.

Right now, Tesla isn't lacking in vision or potential—it's just in a phase where it needs to validate execution and gauge market sentiment. Once the AI system stabilizes, vehicle numbers grow, and data flows smoothly, I believe its stock will make a major move—not a gradual rise, but a 'leap' after consolidation.

In short: Robotaxi's launch is significant and promising, with potential to re-rate the stock. But for now, it's a 'news realization' phase, not a 'news explosion,' with cautious market sentiment and no major moves from institutional players.

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