Tariffs, rate cuts, crypto... Is your position ready?

The market information has been ridiculously overwhelming these past two days, reading the news feels like watching a drama: tariffs, US stocks, cryptocurrencies, three main lines are simultaneously exerting force, making the market rhythm exceptionally subtle. Since the situation is so lively, let's look at each line one by one, analyze and think clearly—how to survive this storm without being too embarrassed.

Let's talk about the tariff line first.

On July 9, the US's "reciprocal tariff" buffer period will end, and the tariff adjustments between China and the US have been postponed to August. This kind of node-type game is not just news, but a kind of atmosphere. You see, Trump has just finalized a new trade agreement with Vietnam, clearly "forming alliances," first stabilizing Southeast Asian allies, and then negotiating tougher conditions with China.

Meanwhile, China and the US are not idle either. Negotiations in London are already underway, ostensibly talks, but in essence, both sides are rehearsing for the "worst-case scenario."

My judgment is that this is not just a regular trade negotiation, but more like a "reshuffle" of the global industrial chain.

In the short term, it may not explode immediately, but the closer it gets to July 9 and August, the more tense the market sentiment will be, and volatility will follow. Especially for companies highly dependent on exports and with long supply chain links, once policies are implemented, profits may be directly compressed, and early vigilance is necessary.

Now let's look at the US stock line.

As soon as the June ADP employment data came out, it directly poured cold water on the market—employment decreased by 33,000, the worst since March 2023. Now, the market immediately turned its attention to betting on interest rate cuts, with the probability of a Fed rate cut in July soaring from the original 20% to 27.4%, and funds quickly flowing to "beneficial" assets.

But interestingly, US stocks are still hitting historical highs. The S&P, Nasdaq are rising steadily, and the Dow Jones is not falling behind. This phenomenon reminds one of the old saying: "The market fears not bad news, but no news."

My view is clear: this current rise is entirely supported by "rate cut imagination."

The logic is—the worse the economic data, the faster the Fed cuts rates, and the more tech stocks can rise. But once the non-farm data comes out not as bad as expected, or even rebounds, this logic will reverse, and the market will turn from frenzy to disappointment in an instant.

So my advice is: don't chase highs, if you can pocket profits, don't hesitate. Especially for AI, semiconductors, SaaS sectors that have already risen to "valuation heights," take profits when you can, preserving profits is more important than the thrill of chasing highs and lows.

Finally, let's talk about cryptocurrencies.

If you've been watching the crypto field from the sidelines during this period, you might have really missed a rocket.

Robinhood suddenly launched over 100 tokenized stock trades, not only including super IPs like OpenAI and SpaceX but also boosting its own stock price. Meanwhile, Hong Kong is also catching up: Guotai Junan International has obtained a virtual asset trading license, and the Financial Secretary has announced that the "Stablecoin Ordinance" will take effect on August 1, aiming to push it into cross-border payments, livelihood payments, and corporate clearing scenarios.

Meanwhile, in the US, the "GENIUS Act" has quietly passed in the Senate, effectively giving the "technology + token" path an official stamp.

Sounds exciting, doesn't it? But I still have to say a hard truth: Policy can catalyze, but ultimately it depends on the difficulty of technology landing and user acceptance. Robinhood can make OpenAI tokens, but it doesn't mean OpenAI is really distributing dividends to shareholders, many assets are still "shadow assets," with large imagination space but uncertain actual returns.

So if you plan to participate, you must clarify your strategy: are you willing to long-term layout "future possible value realization" logic, or short-term participate in emotional speculation, making quick money? Both are fine, but don't mix them, mixed operations can easily lead to confusion and losses.

Three-line storm is coming, are you ready?

The current market pattern is actually three main lines simultaneously creating variables:

• Tariff line: Geopolitical undercurrents are surging, export sectors are under great pressure;
• US stock line: Supported by rate cut expectations, once data reverses, there is a risk of correction;
• Crypto line: Policy dividends are intensively released, but the underlying logic is still in early trial and error.

This is not a simple long-short duel, but more like a global confidence stress test. You not only need to choose the right track but also the right rhythm and risk control method.

The wind is strong, some rise with the wind, some are blown off course. The focus is not on how the wind blows, but whether you can hold the steering wheel steady. It's easy to fantasize about getting rich, but truly surviving and running far is the basic skill of a master.

$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) $S&P 500(.SPX.US) $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) $Robinhood(HOOD.US) $GUOTAI JUNAN I(01788.HK) $OpenAI(OpenAI.NA) $Tesla(TSLA.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $AMD(AMD.US)