The U.S. bill has been passed. Have a nice weekend.

Today, I was invited to play golf at a friend's golf course. It's been a while since I last played, so I was a bit rusty, but at least I managed to score an eagle. Pretty lucky!

The U.S. stock market is closed today, so shelly will briefly discuss recent macroeconomic news.

There are three recent developments, all leading to the same conclusion: the U.S. stock market bull run remains intact. Details below:

1. The House of Representatives finally passed the Big Beautiful Act.

Trump's long-awaited tax cut bill has finally been enacted, expected to reduce taxes by $4 trillion and cut spending by $1.5 trillion over the next decade. This bill is a short-term positive for U.S. stocks, with these sectors worth watching:

Traditional energy sector: The bill repeals several clauses introduced by Biden to reduce energy consumption and cancels tax credits for electric vehicle purchases;

Semiconductor sector: Chip manufacturers building factories in the U.S. by 2026 can enjoy a 35% investment tax credit;

Defense sector: The bill increases defense spending, which will bring more orders and business opportunities for defense contractors;

Consumer sector: Large-scale tax cuts reduce corporate tax burdens and enhance profitability;

However, long-term risks should be monitored, as rising U.S. deficits and debt could push up long-term Treasury yields, potentially hurting the stock market.

2. Trump's Tax Bill.

After the Big Beautiful Act, Trump is now focusing on tariffs. Tomorrow, he will sign a tax bill unilaterally setting tariff rates. The negotiation deadline is July 9, but there's no need to worry too much—market marginal effects are diminishing.

3. June Non-Farm Payrolls Exceed Expectations.

The labor market is stronger than expected, so July rate cut expectations have faded. The probability of a September rate cut has also dropped from 98% to 80%. Whether economic growth or rate cuts drive stock prices higher, yesterday's market reaction suggests a preference for the more sustainable former. Historically, markets also prefer gradual rate cuts, as abrupt cuts signal economic problems. The market seems more rational now; the next key data point is mid-July CPI.

BTW Coconut water lacks momentum today but can still be held. Recently, Lens Technology in the A-share market has been soaring relentlessly—it's a big winner, a red envelope stock. Wait for Tuesday's results.

Happy weekend, everyone.

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