The US stock market will rebound strongly tonight. How to operate in the US stock market tonight?

Recently read a book "Turtle Trading Rules", many things resonated deeply with me, especially after gaining some stock trading experience. Sharing my favorite quote from the book: The difference between the strongest and the weakest lies in their psychological traits. I'll share more insights and practices from the book when I get the chance.

1. News

1. Tariffs. Last Thursday, Trump postponed the originally scheduled August 1 tariff implementation to August 7, which is now standard practice, leaving room for negotiation but also adding uncertainty again. According to his posts, more specific measures will be introduced in the coming weeks. Affected by this, U.S. stocks fell across the board, though not significantly, the intraday bearish candlestick was quite noticeable. The uncertainty around trade policies is likely to linger in the short term, but these potential new tariff variables are already priced in by the market. Stocks trade on expectations, and the marginal effect of tariffs will gradually diminish. Although stocks fell again on Friday, it was mainly due to weak non-farm payroll data raising concerns about the U.S. economy. In all, I don’t think we need to worry too much about tariffs.

2. Non-Farm Payrolls. The U.S. July non-farm payrolls came in at only 73,000, far below the market expectation of 110,000, indicating continued weakness in the job market, possibly reflecting the lingering effects of tariffs. However, this also boosted market expectations for a September rate cut. This explains why U.S. stocks have shorter bear markets and longer bull runs: good economic data lifts stocks; bad data raises Fed intervention expectations, also lifting stocks. Either way, stocks rise.

After the data release, Trump announced plans to fire the Labor Statistics Bureau chief appointed by Biden, calling the data a major error, a classic case of self-deception. Trump is hilarious, the ultimate idealist.

3. The Fed. Before the jobs report, the market priced in a 45% chance of a September rate cut; post-report, this surged to 75%. The Fed’s upcoming statements (especially the FOMC meeting) will be the next key variable for market direction, which we’ll closely monitor.

4. Earnings. More companies report this week. I’m watching AMD (focusing on new product orders), TEM, and PLTR’s earnings tonight (focusing on government contract fulfillment). But as always, I don’t bet on earnings—just follow, don’t predict.

II. Market Overview

U.S. Stocks. On the last trading day of July (Friday), U.S. stocks fell for the fourth consecutive day, opening low and breaking below the 20- and 30-day moving averages. Today, Asian markets like Hong Kong rebounded, and U.S. stocks are poised for a rebound too, with buying pressure and a gap to fill. For long-term investors like me, this is just normal profit-taking pullback—noise in the bigger picture. Holding steady.

Hong Kong Stocks. After nearly seven straight days of pullback from highs, Fibonacci retracement suggested a bounce today—which happened (~1%). In Thursday’s post, I mentioned I’d add positions if the pullback deepened, and my quant system did just that on Friday. Today’s rally was expected—feels great.

The Hang Seng still has a gap at 25,000, which will likely be filled. Staying bullish.

Sharing a trading method: Using Donchian’s breakout strategy, we added U.S. stock positions in late June during the breakout and Hong Kong stocks in late July. To catch big trends, you must be in the game at critical moments—timing matters.

III. Selected Holdings

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Fell 4% on Friday, similar to the July 22 drop, which was erased in two days. As always: If the uptrend holds, short-term moves are noise. NVIDIA’s earnings are due soon—until then, it’s steady. Holding. For those asking about buying here: You can, or wait.

$Coinbase(COIN.US) $Strategy(MSTR.US) $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US)

I bought the dip on Friday. All are up pre-market.

$Tesla(TSLA.US)

Lacking momentum, forming a double-top. The next few sessions are critical—whether it breaks support or bounces will determine Tesla’s near-term direction. Watching closely. Still holding.

$Circle(CRCL.US)

Fell with the market, breaking support.

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)

AI transformation partially realized. Holding through earnings tonight.

IV. Sectors to Watch

As mentioned before: AI, crypto, biotech—still key. Adding rare earths today, as many have asked. My quant system detects heavy buying in this sector, with related stocks rebounding pre-market. Don’t chase highs. Post-earnings, if they hold, consider buying. Rare earths trade on future expectations—will update the group.

V. IPOs

$AB&B BIO-TECH-B(02627.HK)

Why mention Zhonghui Bio-B only now, on the last day of cash subscription (margin subscription closed)? Because it’s mediocre—our team’s analysis says so. Won’t waste words on low-value info. Silence means no-go.

$Figma(FIG.US)

Surged 250% on its Friday debut—insane. Opened at $85 (3x the $33 IPO price), closed at $115.50. Many asked if Figma was worth it—my answer: Go for it. Our IPO team’s take: Strong company, high AI integration, the year’s biggest tech IPO.

Figma’s success shows AI’s expanding applications and effectiveness—a sector I’ve long emphasized. Watch AI plays like Adobe, APP, Meta, Google, Shopify, Amazon, and Tempus AI for potential synergies.

As for trading Figma, consider mid-term positions after a pullback.

$GEEKPLUS-W(02590.HK)

Geek+ has bled for two weeks—frustrating. But objectively, I’ve always liked it (Hong Kong’s first warehouse robotics stock). Despite a weak gray market, it rallied later. Now might be a good entry, but my confidence is waning. Down 0.12% post-greenshoe…

P.S. Busy lately—updating here 2-3x/week. But key updates and trades will always be covered—no FOMO!