Xiaomi Group Q2 2025 Earnings Preview

Xiaomi Group is expected to release its Q2 financial results on August 19, 2025 (Hong Kong time) and hold an earnings briefing and investor conference call. The market generally expects Xiaomi's Q2 revenue and net profit to continue their high growth trend, although the growth rate may slow down compared to the explosive performance in Q1.

Predictions from multiple brokerages show that CMB International expects Q2 revenue to increase by approximately 32% year-on-year, reaching RMB 117 billion, with adjusted net profit rising by about 66% year-on-year to RMB 10.3 billion. Citigroup, on the other hand, forecasts an adjusted net profit of RMB 10.4 billion, up 68% year-on-year, slightly higher than CMBI's prediction. Overall, the market expects Q2 revenue to range between RMB 113.5–123 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.7%–38.4%.

From a business structure perspective, Xiaomi's Q2 performance continues to show diversified growth.
In the smartphone business, shipments are expected to remain flat quarter-on-quarter at around 42.4 million units, with global market share maintaining at about 15%. Shipments in the Chinese market are projected to grow by approximately 3% year-on-year, reflecting steady improvements in its premium strategy and brand influence.
In the smart car sector, deliveries are expected to reach around 81,000 units, with the average selling price increasing by about 9% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter. The improvement in gross margin reflects upgrades in product structure and capacity utilization.
IoT and internet services also performed strongly, benefiting from China's subsidy policies and the 618 shopping festival. IoT revenue is expected to grow by 36% year-on-year, while internet service revenue is projected to increase by 10% year-on-year, with gross margins remaining at relatively high levels of approximately 23% and 75%, respectively.

Historical data also supports market confidence. In Q1 2025, Xiaomi's revenue hit a record high of RMB 111.3 billion. Looking back at Q2 2024, revenue was RMB 88.9 billion, up 32% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit at RMB 6.18 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase. For the full year of 2024, Xiaomi's IoT business revenue surpassed the RMB 100 billion mark, while smart car deliveries accelerated and achieved industry-leading gross margins. Internet service gross margins have consistently remained above 70%.

Looking ahead to the Q2 earnings report, investor focus centers on three key areas. First, whether revenue and net profit meet or exceed market expectations, which will directly impact short-term stock price fluctuations. Second, whether the high-growth performance across business segments can be sustained, particularly in smart car deliveries and profitability. Third, whether gross margins and cost control remain stable, as price competition in the smartphone business may exert pressure, though the high margins of IoT and internet services could partially offset this impact.

In the second half of the year, Xiaomi will also see several potential catalysts, including the release of Phase 2 smart car production capacity, the launch of new premium smartphones in September, and further expansion of its global IoT ecosystem. These factors are expected to inject new momentum into the company's revenue and profits and drive a revaluation of its market valuation.

Overall, Xiaomi's Q2 earnings report is likely to send positive signals to the market. If the report shows better-than-expected gross margins, smart car deliveries, and new product momentum, it could not only solidify market confidence but also serve as a catalyst for another round of stock price growth.