Major U.S. stock market events and earnings preview for the week of 10.26

$Amazon(AMZN.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $Unitedhealth(UNH.US)

• Macro fundamentals:

CPI interpretation:
（1）September CPI rose 0.3% MoM and 3.0% YoY, slightly below market expectations
（2）【Key】Core logic supporting market bets on December rate cuts: Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% MoM, the slowest growth in three months, benefiting from a significant slowdown in housing cost growth (an important component of Fed's inflation measure), providing the most positive signal for further rate cuts

Wednesday FOMC expectations:
（1）CME shows 98.3% probability of 25bp rate cut in October and 91.1% probability of 50bp rate cut in December
（2）【Key】BofA/Deutsche Bank expect Fed to end QT early next week; if confirmed, bank reserve relief would benefit risk asset premiums

X-factors:
（1）Tariffs and trade negotiations

• Earnings expectations:
  According to FaceSet's latest earnings report

1.【Key】Earnings growth revised upward: Market raised S&P 500 composite earnings growth from 7.9% to 9.2%, increasing difficulty for overall outperformance
2. Reported earnings: 87% EPS beat, 83% revenue beat
3. Valuations:
（1）PE(NTM): 22.7, below mid-2020 peak of 23.5, above 5/10-year averages
（2）PE(LTM): 28.9, below 2021 peak of 35.8, also above 5/10-year averages
（3）2025 EPS floor: 268.18
（4）2026 EPS floor: 304.92

• Earnings preview:

1. UNH: Tuesday, position held, support 350/356, resistance 375/390, last week MOH earnings missed expectations, market correcting insurance environment views, analysts expect +12% revenue growth, -63% EPS growth, valuation at <10% historical low
2. GOOG: Wednesday, support 250/245, expected +13.4% revenue growth, +7.3% EPS growth, valuation at 10-year median, upper-mid 5-year range
3. Meta: Wednesday, support 730/715, resistance 740, expected +21.7% revenue growth, +11% EPS growth, valuation at 10/5-year median
4. MSFT: Wednesday, support 520/510, resistance 530, expected +15% revenue growth, +11% EPS growth, valuations at elevated levels
5. AMZN: Thursday, position, support 222/218, resistance 228, watch for AWS growth reversal, expected +11.8% revenue growth, +9% EPS growth, valuations at mid-low range
6. AAPL: Thursday, support 255/250, expected +7.5% revenue growth, +82% EPS growth, valuations at elevated levels

• Focus: Tech giants' continued AI computing capex investments and AISC custom chip investments
• Warning: Don't gamble on earnings!