Rate Of ReturnFollow the 13F portfolio adjustment.
Been busy with business trips lately. 😸
Last Friday, Berkshire Hathaway filed its 13F, disclosing the stock god's third-quarter portfolio adjustments, which were also his last. I've been consistently tracking Buffett's portfolio moves because, after all, managing large funds means value investing is still the priority, and I don't adjust positions frequently. Today, Shelly will share some of the most valuable insights from this 13F for my operations. I'll focus on the key points—simplicity is key, and extracting the most valuable information from the noise is what matters most.
$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)
Buffett bought $4.3 billion worth of Google, marking Berkshire's first position in GOOG, accounting for 1.62% of the portfolio. Google has always been a heavyweight in our portfolio, and longtime followers know we added to our position during the golden dip in April and again in June when it broke through multiple moving averages. We've held it since, and every adjustment has been shared with everyone. GOOG has risen nearly 50% this year, primarily due to the AI infrastructure theme Shelly has been emphasizing—a dominant trend in U.S. stocks. The market has strong demand for Google's AI-driven cloud services and ad platform, driving its robust performance this year.
Technically, there's resistance at previous highs above and strong support at the 30-day moving average below. The uptrend is choppy, with three consecutive days of declines, but it's already up 4% pre-market today. However, I don't think these day-to-day movements matter because they're just noise, especially when managing large funds where entry and exit considerations are critical. In fact, I once conducted a quantitative study comparing simple passive strategies with extreme retail behavior—buying on rallies and selling on dips, a day-trading retail strategy. The result? You could hustle all year with constant trading and still underperform buy-and-hold returns. So, identifying the trend is crucial—don't move around unnecessarily. Until my quant system signals a clear adjustment, I won't make any moves. Based on fundamental, technical, and quantitative analysis, we'll hold GOOG long-term and add on dips—how low is "low" depends on the specifics.
$Apple(AAPL.US)
Buffett reduced his stake in Apple. In fact, since last year, he's been aggressively trimming Apple, selling about two-thirds of his holdings cumulatively. But don't overlook that AAPL remains Berkshire's largest position, and Apple's stake once accounted for over 50% of Berkshire's portfolio, now at 22.69%. So Shelly believes Buffett is still bullish on Apple—after all, Apple has been very strong this year. However, rapid price gains inevitably bring rising risks, which applies to any stock. This reduction is purely due to overvaluation and the need to reduce risk exposure—50% was simply too high. According to Markowitz's MPT, what matters isn't which stock you pick but the correlation between your holdings. Apple has also been a heavyweight in our portfolio, with a textbook rising wave pattern. It has the potential to break previous highs, with strong support at the 30-day moving average. We'll hold long-term and won't reduce until the quant strategy signals. We'll consider adding on pullbacks to the 30-day moving average.
Beyond these two, let's briefly review other holdings in our portfolio.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)
NVDA is our largest position. Q3 earnings are due Wednesday, with SoftBank exiting and investment banks bullish. NVDA has been volatile recently, oscillating near highs but holding above the strong 60-day moving average support, so no major concerns. Wednesday's earnings will likely meet or exceed expectations—just hold tight. Any adjustments will be shared.
$Tesla(TSLA.US)
TSLA has always been "unpredictable," with wide swings. Its uptrend is now completely broken, forming a deep double-top—the only one in the Magnificent 7 yet to surpass previous highs. This stock can only wait for a rebound; cutting now isn't worth it.
$Microsoft(MSFT.US)
Consolidating, waiting for the market to choose direction. Holding steady.
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