NVIDIA's "Vote of Confidence": Can Q3 Earnings Shatter the AI Bubble Theory?

On the 19th of this month, NVIDIA's Q3 2026 earnings report is about to be released. This highly anticipated report by global investors will not only reveal the latest developments of the AI chip giant in the wave of artificial intelligence but may also directly address the current market's heated debate on the "AI bubble."

According to Wall Street consensus, NVIDIA's Q3 revenue is expected to reach approximately $54.84 billion, a 56% year-on-year increase, far exceeding the same period last year, highlighting the strong momentum of its data center business. However, just before the earnings report, Japan's SoftBank Group unexpectedly sold all its NVIDIA holdings, cashing out nearly $5.8 billion. This move further fueled market concerns about an AI investment bubble. Meanwhile, Wall Street giants like Citigroup still cast a "vote of confidence" in NVIDIA, expecting it to achieve the dual surprise of "revenue exceeding expectations and guidance upgrades" and raising the target price to $220.

Today, Decoder Brother will take everyone through an analysis of the situation and potential opportunities.

NVIDIA's revenue expectations are strong. The data center business still accounts for over 90%, with the Blackwell series' volume being the core focus. If "exceeding expectations + guidance upgrades" are achieved, it will decisively debunk the AI bubble theory. Despite SoftBank's sell-off, Masayoshi Son's "high-position reduction" has sparked controversy, but Wall Street remains collectively bullish, emphasizing Blackwell's shipments exceeding expectations. Analysts believe AI has shifted from experimentation to production deployment, with demand continuing to surge. NVIDIA's orders are already backlogged until 2026. The current market cap is around $4.6 trillion; if the earnings report is impressive, an 8-15% stock price increase could bring it back to $5 trillion.

Whether Decoder can "decisively debunk" the AI bubble theory in Q3 hinges on two key variables: first, whether the data center revenue share exceeds expectations; second, whether Q4 guidance is raised to over $60 billion. If achieved, the market will view this as ironclad proof of "real demand," giving the bubble theory a chance to fade—similar to the "V-shaped reversal" after ChatGPT's explosion in 2023. The logical path to a $5 trillion market cap: from the current $4.62 trillion, a 10% post-earnings rise would hit the target. The risk lies in potential delays to Blackwell or signals of CapEx slowdown, which could trigger a 5%-10% stock price correction, but the long-term outlook remains positive.

Market volatility intensifies ahead of the earnings report.

For holders: If already holding, it's recommended to "hold steady." NVIDIA's high Beta value amplifies market sentiment post-earnings, but long-term returns outperform. Set a stop-loss at $170 to avoid extreme downturns.

For new entrants: Short-term 观望 until post-earnings 开盘， avoiding the "buy the rumor, sell the news" trap. If guidance is strong, consider 分批 buying around $190. Long-term investors may explore options strategies, such as buying call options to hedge volatility.

Risk-averse investors can 转向 related ETFs to diversify single-stock risk. Avoid leverage and monitor the Fed's rate-cut decisions' impact on tech stocks.

NVIDIA's Q3 earnings are not just numbers but a "vote of confidence" in the AI era. SoftBank's sell-off adds uncertainty, but Wall Street's optimism aligns closer with fundamentals. Decoder Brother advises anchoring to data and embracing volatility—after all, in the AI race, winners are often those bold enough to bet on the future.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL.US)