[260409] Why I'm Shorting Intel

As of yesterday, $Intel(INTC.US) has accumulated a gain of 43.1% over 7 consecutive trading days. The drivers behind this surge are:

❶ Earnings expectations. Funds are betting on improved A18 yield rates and securing large orders. However, the market is not optimistic about Intel's financial data and has given extremely low forecasts;

❷ The driver of a successful business transformation. As earnings data comes out, it will gradually verify whether a successful transformation is possible;

❸ The intention to cooperate with Musk's Terafab. This was already reflected in the stock price when it rose to around 52. Remember the cooperation between $AMD(AMD.US) and Oqen Ai? That was just an imagined, fleeting beautiful vision, not a reason for long-term stock price support.

This is the core reason why I shorted it around $52 on April 7th.

The explosive surge on April 8th was not because it also had sudden positive news, but was caused by multiple factors:

❹ Musk Terafab cooperation (already priced in at $52) + Ceasefire (crude oil drop → tech stock valuation recovery, this is the key point) + Short squeeze + Breaking previous highs (54–55 range) triggering quantitative buying.

As for Intel's current stock price near $60, I believe its valuation is already severely overextended. Even the price after a potential earnings beat has been priced in early.

Intel's current valuation = "Future profit expectations × AI premium × Policy premium × Sentiment premium." This is also why I think it is overvalued and why I shorted it at $52 on April 7th. However, the sudden ceasefire was beyond my prediction. I thought the fighting would continue for two more days, with rising oil prices forcing Trump to negotiate, but I didn't expect Trump's ultimate tolerance for rising oil prices to be $110 (Brent crude futures), while my prediction was $125.

But I still stick to my shorting plan to this day:

❶ The war won't end like this; there is still room for fluctuations.

❷ Intel's overvalued valuation will be corrected by capital.

❸ I don't believe the future success of A18 will bring decisive change to Intel. Not to mention competitor AMD, in my understanding, the CPU is already a product in the late stage of an industry. The room for achieving a major breakthrough is very small. It will inevitably be iterated by a new form.

Yesterday, I also purchased more options, which is like adding to my position indirectly. I hope my understanding is correct.