Monday, April 13, the impact of this incident

The core market disturbance this time stems from a significantly escalated geopolitical news.

According to Reuters, the U.S. Central Command issued a notice to mariners, stating that it will implement a blockade in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade area is described as covering "the entire coastline of Iran," including port and oil terminal areas.

The notice content shows that this blockade will apply to all vessels, regardless of nationality and flag, and will take effect at 14:00 GMT today, which is 22:00 Beijing time.

It also stipulates that any vessel entering or leaving the relevant blockade area without authorization may be intercepted, diverted, or seized. Humanitarian supplies such as food and medical supplies may be released after inspection.

However, the key point is that the notice also emphasizes that neutral transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to non-Iranian destinations is not affected.

I. Event Level Interpretation (What the Market Cares About Most)

This event has essentially escalated from a "geopolitical risk premium" to a "quasi-military shipping control incident."

The market will focus on interpreting three changes:

First, the expansion of the control scope
From a single strait risk to a "re-pricing of overall maritime risk along the Iranian coast," the scope has significantly expanded.

Second, a rule-based blockade rather than a short-term exercise
The explicit mention of "interception, diversion, seizure" in the notice means the market will directly factor in shipping uncertainty, not just short-term news noise.

Third, the psychological impact on energy channels
Even if the Strait of Hormuz is not completely cut off, the market will trade ahead of the "potential supply contraction."

II. Transmission Path to Global Markets

The market impact will not be immediate but will progress in three layers:

First layer: Crude oil
Oil prices will be the first asset to react, with amplified volatility and significantly increased upside risk.

Second layer: Inflation expectations
Rising energy prices will push up inflation expectations again.

Third layer: Interest rates and valuations
The market will reprice "higher rates for longer," directly pressuring high-valuation assets.

Ultimately, the transmission to U.S. stocks means:
Tech stocks under pressure
Index volatility rising
Defensive sectors strengthening

III. Impact on U.S. Stock Market Structure

The short-term market will not immediately trend towards a crash, but the structure has already changed.

First, volatility has clearly increased
Intraday rallies followed by pullbacks will become the norm.

Second, style rotation
Energy and defense sectors relatively benefit
Tech and growth sectors under pressure

Third, changes in capital behavior
Shifting from risk appetite to defensive and certain assets

IV. S&P 500 Key Structure (Core Trading Framework)

Upper resistance levels:
First target: 6775
Strong resistance zone: 6780 to 6820
Post-April extreme resistance: 6890 (difficult to break through effectively)

Lower support levels and targets:
6715 (short-term support, also the pullback target)
6665 (core strong support for this week)
6550 (mid-term trend support)
6420 (key structural boundary)
6250 (ultimate defensive line)

V. This Week's Rhythm and Time Windows

The current market is in a high-level consolidation structure, compounded by the geopolitical event shock.

The core trading range for this week revolves around 6750.

Rhythm judgment is as follows:
High probability of a pullback to 6715 before Wednesday.
Overall, this week is highly likely to end with a small bearish candle or a consolidating bearish candle structure.

Focus on time windows around:
April 17 and April 20
There is a high risk of significantly amplified market volatility.

Two-week dimension judgment:
The probability of a pullback towards the 6615 area is clearly rising.

VI. Key Scenario Projections

Scenario 1: Gap up at open
Do not chase the rally.
The 6775 to 6820 area is a clear resistance zone.
Prone to a rally followed by a pullback.

Scenario 2: Rally followed by pullback
The highest probability structure currently.
Consider following the trend for a short-term short or reducing long positions.

Scenario 3: Gap down and probe lower
Do not chase the short near 6715.
Prone to a technical bounce.

Core principle:
The current market is not a trending one-way market, but a high-volatility range-bound market driven by events.

VII. Structural Opportunities

Short-term relative advantages:
Crude oil-related assets
Energy sector
Defense sector

Short-term under pressure:
High-valuation tech stocks
Semiconductors
Growth small-cap stocks

VIII. Core Conclusion Summary

This event has escalated from an ordinary geopolitical conflict to an expectation of strong regional shipping control.

The pre-April high of 6824 was reached last week.
6890 is the core extreme resistance level for the post-April period, difficult to break.

The current market structure is:
6750 central consolidation
Dense resistance above from 6775 to 6820
Dense support below from 6715 to 6665

Mid-term structure judgment:
The market is entering the late stage of high-level consolidation.
The probability of a pullback towards 6615 in the next two weeks is rising.

Stocks to watch today: Tesla, PLTR, MU, NVDA, LITE

The core trading sentence:
This is not a trending market, but a high-level consolidation and game market under geopolitical shock.

The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Updates will be posted here in the future, but the frequency will be very low.

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