Likes Received4/15 Wednesday Must-Reads for Today
Today's In-Depth Analysis of Global Markets Must-Read
There is a huge amount of market information today, but the core can be summarized into three main themes
Geopolitics Inflation Expectations Economic Data
These three lines together determine the operating logic of U.S. stocks tonight
I. Geopolitics Rising Uncertainty but Still in a Game Stage
Information on the Middle East situation is very dense today, with clear contradictory signals emerging
On one hand
The U.S. and Iran are rumored to have agreed in principle to extend the ceasefire
But on the other hand
Iranian officials explicitly denied it
U.S. officials also said they have not formally agreed yet
At the same time
Trump again sent strong signals
Even mentioned the possibility of quickly striking Iranian infrastructure
The key market interpretation is here
It's not easing
Nor is it a full-scale escalation
But rather
A stage of parallel negotiation and deterrence
Core Impact
Rising uncertainty
Risk premium will not disappear quickly
II. Energy and Inflation Key Variables Are Forming
Fed officials clearly stated
Energy prices are the biggest variable right now
If oil prices rise and remain high
It will bring two results
First Push up inflation
Second Drag down economic growth
This is a typical stagflation risk signal
But the key point now is
Oil prices are not out of control
So the market has not entered panic mode for now
III. Macro Data Slightly Positive for Short-Term Market Support
U.S. data today was overall positive
Import Price Index
Year-on-year 2.1, far below expectations
Month-on-month 0.8, below expectations
Indicates imported inflation pressure is decreasing
New York Fed Manufacturing Index
11, significantly better than expected
Indicates the economy still has resilience
Core Market Interpretation
Inflation has not worsened
The economy has not collapsed
This is an important reason supporting the U.S. stock rebound
IV. Corporate and Industry Level
Bank stock earnings reports were overall strong
Morgan Stanley and Bank of America both exceeded expectations in profits and trading revenue
Indicates market liquidity remains
High trading activity
At the same time
Alibaba Cloud raised prices for large model services
Indicates rising computing power costs
AI industry chain prosperity still exists
V. What is the Market Trading? Core
The market is not trading on good news today
But is trading
The absence of worse news under uncertainty
Specific manifestations
Short covering
Tech stock recovery
Risk sentiment warming
VI. S&P 500 Key Levels Core
Current market structure
High-level volatility plus event-driven
Central position
6750
Upper resistance structure
First target level
7000
Short-term strong resistance zone
6880 to 6980
Stage and mid-term core resistance level
7000
Need to emphasize
7000 is still a very strong resistance level
Belongs to psychological barrier and structural resonance pressure
In the current environment
It's difficult to break through effectively in one go
Once the impact fails
It is very easy to trigger a mid-term pullback from this area
Lower support structure
Short-term support level
6950
Short-term key support
6715
This week's core support
6665
Short-to-mid-term target support
6615
Mid-term important support
6550
VII. Rhythm and Time Window
Short-term rhythm
High probability of retesting 6715
This week's overall rhythm
Volatile and weak
High probability of a small bearish candlestick
Easily prone to directional choices or increased volatility
VIII. Today's Stocks to Watch
TSLA
NVDA
AVGO
snow
Let me say this here, if SPY cannot break 7000, it will likely start to pull back in the short term. You can pay attention to buying puts here and follow the trend down.
IX. Risk Warning Important
If the market appears
To open low, go high, and close with a bullish candlestick
Need to be vigilant
It might be a false bullish candlestick structure
Easily followed by accelerated decline
X. Mid-term Projection Core Conclusion
The current market has already entered
The late stage of high-level volatility
In the next two weeks
Retesting 6615 is a high probability event
XI. Summarize in one sentence
The current market
Is not a rising trend
Nor is it a falling trend
But a high-level volatile market under geopolitical risks and macro games
Operation Core
Don't chase highs
Only trade the range
Focus on the rhythm around the 6750 central level
Focus on the strong resistance at 7000 above
Watch the short-term support at 6950 and the support zone from 6715 to 6665 below
Once 7000 cannot be broken
A mid-term pullback trend may start at any time
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Updates are rare here.
$Tesla(TSLA.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US)
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