Pre-market thoughts for US stocks on April 20, 2026

There seems to be a lot of information today, but the core is actually just one word

Chaos

1. Geopolitical situation has entered a volatile phase

Significant divergence in news surrounding the Strait of Hormuz

On one side

There are expectations for negotiations
which could even begin soon

On the other side

Iran clearly stated it has not yet decided whether to participate
and believes it is still in a state of war

Simultaneously

The US is internally adjusting its strategy
and beginning to consider external advice

This indicates the current situation is not easing
nor escalating

but rather a phase of repeated gamesmanship

More critically

Some countries have explicitly stated that oil transportation is being affected

This shows the shift from expectation to actual impact

2. Energy logic has reversed again

In recent days, the market was trading

Resumption of navigation, oil prices falling

Now it has become

Transportation disruptions, oil prices rebounding

Once oil prices rise

Inflation expectations will increase
and interest rate expectations will tighten

Simply put

The logic that previously favored tech stocks is starting to weaken

3. Macro and external environment

Policy level is generally stable

Focus is on the energy system and technology direction

Asian markets are performing strongly overall

But the Japan earthquake brings some uncertainty

This is an emotional disturbance

and will not become the main theme

4. Technology and industry chain

No significant negative factors for the technology direction

Signs of recovery in consumer electronics demand

Continued investment in the AI direction

Computing power demand has not weakened

Indicating the main theme has not changed

But short-term will be disturbed by macro factors and oil prices

5. What is the market currently trading?

The core logic of today's market has changed

From the previous

Trading on easing

to

Trading on uncertainty

Futures experienced a surge and then pullback

Indicating capital is starting to hesitate

6. Today's trend judgment

Today is more likely to be volatile

rather than one-directional

The reason is simple

Bulls have logic

Technology and AI

Bears also have logic

Oil prices and geopolitics

Both sides have their reasons

The market won't move smoothly

7. Key levels

Currently in a high-level area

Above

6980 to 7150
The 7000 psychological level

are strong resistance

Below

6950 short-term support
6715 key support

8. Today's trading approach

The most important sentence today

Don't predict the direction

Just follow

Go long

Only after a pullback to support is confirmed

Don't chase highs

Go short

Only when a rally is blocked or there's a clear pullback

9. Key signals to watch

First, oil prices

If they continue to rise

Tech stocks will face pressure

Second, leading stocks

NVDA
TSLA

If they weaken

The index will struggle to continue its advance

Third, volume

Rising without volume increase

is likely false strength

10. Stocks to watch today

TSLA

NVDA

MU

TSM

 MRVL

11. Summary in one sentence

The market today is not a trending market

but a high-level oscillation driven by news

In terms of trading

Go slower
Wait for confirmation
That's more important than anything

The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Everyone is welcome to leave comments and discuss.

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