The earnings forecasts were all correct, but the stock price forecasts were only half right. Once again, it proves that stock prices are unpredictable.

It's important to know that the fourth quarter is also a peak season, so a significant year-on-year decline leading to a stock price drop is understandable. Saying the first-quarter data shows a move from the ICU to KTV is a bit of an exaggeration, but from the perspective of market-oriented reforms, it's not excessive to say that the effects are gradually becoming apparent. Whether we can confirm that the inflection point has arrived depends on the second and third quarters.

$Moutai(600519.SH)

Longbridge - 长坡行者
长坡行者

被偏爱的茅台

记得前两天刚和一个做短线的朋友聊到茅台,我说你可以拿茅台做个短线,4.17 进,4.27 出。他说为啥,我说 4.16 发年报,一定不会太好,大概率跌;4.25 发一季度报,一定还不错,大概率涨。他问我:那你在 4.16 之前卖不卖(他知道我有茅台持仓)?我说我不卖,我说我能预判到茅台业绩不会太好,但是我预判不到市场会怎么反应,因为茅台目前这个价格本身不算高了,只能说大概率会跌。4.16 年报发布...

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