MSFT: The first effective rebound within a short structure

Compared to "Soul Painter-2026-04-12", it is in the first effective rebound within a downtrend.
• Supertrend: Turned green, price rebounded from the lower band but is still within the descending channel and hit the Volume Profile dense zone; the major structure hasn't broken yet.
• Parallel Channel: Upper band dynamic resistance (each rebound gets suppressed), lower band panic release zone (bottom-fishing appears), middle axis trend equilibrium level. The current state has moved closer to the upper band. If it doesn't break through, it will fall back again (continuing the channel).
• Anchored Volume Profile: The dense trading zone is still between 395-430.
• Trend-Based Fib Extension: Has completed the 2.618 extension (strong trend confirmation).
• Cyclic Lines: A turning point appeared near the last time window; the next window is expected in December.
• Anchored VWAP: The price has just re-established above the VWAP, short-term funds are starting to profit, shifting from previous panic to recovery, but it's still not a safe zone.
• Fib Retracement: Has not further tested the 0.618 level; for now, it's believed it won't break to new lows.

Recorded thoughts: The rebound is complete, but it's still in a bearish structure. Tentatively, there are three possible paths: 1) Rebound to 435, encounter resistance, fall back, and continue the descending channel. 2) Break through 455 and stabilize above the Volume Profile dense zone, with pullbacks not breaking it. 3) Consolidate between 390–440 to digest holdings.

【For trading notes only, not constituting any advice】

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)