明天，阿里财报又要交卷了！如何看今次的期权市场定价？

Tomorrow, $Alibaba(BABA.US) is set to release its earnings report again.

Citigroup predicts that Alibaba Cloud's AI-related revenue will achieve a 90% compound annual growth rate over the next five years, accounting for 70% of the cloud business's total revenue by fiscal year 2031. Regarded as the Chinese version of "Google+Amazon," Alibaba has been improving almost everywhere this year—cloud is accelerating, AI is being implemented, overseas losses are narrowing, and regulatory pressure has eased. The e-commerce+AI shopping chain has given the market more hope. This week's earnings implied volatility (based on option parity) reaches ±6.73%!

1. Institutional Consensus Estimates

Revenue $36.19B (YoY +11.2%) / Adjusted EPS $0.84 / Adjusted Net Profit $1.95B. The market is most focused on three things:

Whether Cloud external revenue growth can maintain ≥ 33%
AI-related revenue achieving triple-digit year-over-year growth for two consecutive quarters
Quarterly CapEx amount (first 3 quarters total ~$14B / progress on the three-year $53B plan)

Alibaba's Past

Based on a 47% IV reversal, a one-standard-deviation implied volatility range is approximately ±$19 ($118 ~ $156), which represents the hedging range for this earnings report by Wall Street options traders. Earnings implied volatility (based on option parity) reaches ±6.73%!

Source: Longbridge CLI & BABA option chain (as of the near-month 0618 contract)

Honestly, I'm a bit nervous for it—not about the earnings, but about the options market. The market is pricing in ±7.5% implied volatility for this week's underlying, which translates to "the market makers think a big green candle or a big red candle is coming." But I looked at the actual moves over the past eight quarters, and the average real volatility on earnings day was only ±4.5%. The market makers are more dramatic than retail investors, and this always makes me laugh.

What's even more interesting is the pattern. Out of the last eight earnings reports, only three saw gains on the day, clearly leaning bearish. But if the first day's drop is severe enough, there's about a 60% chance the loss is partially recovered over the next 3 days—a classic "scare you first, then coax you back" script. The last two quarters were textbook examples: the February report shot up +8% like fireworks, and March brought a -7% horror story. The same stock, two different faces.

The key points this time are really just three things: whether Cloud's external revenue can stay above 33%, whether AI revenue can achieve triple-digit year-over-year growth for a third consecutive quarter, and how much of the $53 billion three-year CapEx plan was burned this quarter. Eddie Wu has bet Alibaba on the AI card, and the market is betting he's right.

The answer will be revealed before the US market opens on May 13th.