Kanzhun: The once niche, boutique recruiting model has fully matured.

$Kanzhun(BZ.US) Q1 results were broadly in line, with a small profit beat on tighter G&A. With the hyper-growth phase behind it and a tougher backdrop, the top line is unlikely to return to prior growth rates. Before Intl expansion reaches scale, the main lever in the near term is continued operating leverage.

In detail:

1. Multiple factors slowed Billings: Q1 Billings grew 10% YoY, within guidance but decelerating vs. last quarter. Macro headwinds were one factor; a higher base, a later and longer CNY holiday, and the ensuing lag in hiring demand also weighed. Sensor Tower shows Billings rebounded quickly after workers returned from CNY.

2. Revenue guidance in line: Q2 revenue guidance implies 13%–15% YoY growth, an uptick QoQ and in line with expectations, reflecting lagged confirmation of post-CNY demand. Combining Q1 and Q2, 1H revenue growth is about 11%, roughly flat vs. last year’s 1H. Given the low base last year, momentum is best described as steady.

3. B-side client count kept rising: Billings growth was driven by steady net adds in paying clients. Paying enterprise accounts rose by 3 mn QoQ to 7.1 mn, a new high. Implied ARPPU was roughly flat YoY; Sensor Tower’s iOS Billings grew 14% YoY in Q1, outpacing total Billings, and Q2 to date is up 29%, indicating further acceleration. This points to demand led mainly by SMEs.

4. C-side MAU growth slowed: Q1 MAU reached 60.9 mn, a net add of 2.9 mn QoQ, softer than prior years and a clear deceleration. Near term, timing of CNY likely played a role. Longer term, white-collar penetration may be nearing a local peak, while blue-collar user acquisition must compete with traffic-heavy, tech-forward general platforms like Douyin/Kuashou and offline hiring channels.

QM data show Kanzhun remains dominant within verticals, with MAU far ahead and user time-share above 60% and rising.

5. Operating leverage continues to release: Q1 core OP was RMB 620 mn, a modest beat, with a 30% OPM, down 400bps QoQ and up 750bps YoY. The upside was mainly from tighter G&A. Self-help remains the fastest way to sustain earnings. R&D is small in absolute terms, and trimming S&M and G&A has been more impactful.

This year includes a co-sponsor fee for the World Cup (Approx. RMB 200 mn), and S&M had already trended lower last year. In the near term, G&A offers the most room to tighten.

6. Shareholder returns average: Last quarter, management raised the buyback authorization, lifting the 2-year $250 mn program (announced Sept 2025) to $400 mn, and pledged from 2026 onward to return 50% of Adj. net income via buybacks and dividends. Under market and top-tier house assumptions, 2026 Adj. net income is Estimated at RMB 3.8 bn, implying nearly RMB 2.0 bn (~$280 mn) for returns. Against a current RMB 6.8 bn market cap, that is about a 4% yield, decent but not standout.

7. Core metrics vs. consensus

Dolphin Research View

The setup is complex: consumption remains fragile, and white-collar tech workers face AI risk, worsening labor market imbalances. While blue-collar online penetration is rising and Kanzhun continues to take share, SME hiring demand is volatile with uneven monetization. That shows up as strong online paid Billings but potentially smaller annual framework contracts at large enterprises.

Hence, more top-line optionality will come from geographic expansion. In Hong Kong, penetration is progressing well, with the OfferToday platform now No.1 by DAU and No.2 by MAU among mainstream job portals. At the current trajectory, it is close to overtaking JobsDB.

Hong Kong is small, though, so until expansion scales, self-help remains the fastest way to sustain earnings. This has been Kanzhun’s main response to early growth deceleration over the past year. Despite World Cup sponsorship, more AI and new product spend this year, management still guides Adj. OPM higher in 2026, albeit at a slower pace (vs. last year’s +900bps).

Assuming 2026 revenue growth of 11% and Adj. OPM rising 100bps from 40.8%, profit would reach RMB 3.8 bn, up 13%. At a 15% tax rate and a current RMB 6.8 bn market cap, 2026 P/E is about 14x, roughly in line with this year’s growth and with most of the vertical-leader premium gone.

Valuation has compressed, but not absolutely cheap. On one hand, sentiment is weak and internet platform multiples have drifted below 15x. On the other, AI and macro headwinds imply slower growth ahead, and management already guided a 10% 2-year CAGR last quarter, limiting near-term upside to expectations.

In short, Kanzhun’s management is credible and execution is solid, and it has emphasized shareholder returns early. But with growth slowing and a 2-year lower-growth path signaled, a clear inflection for a trend reversal is hard to foresee near term. Unless it further steps up capital returns or monetizes expansion to lift the market view, a strong share-price recovery still looks challenging given current sentiment.

Details below

1. Users: expansion slowed, vertical share kept rising

Kanzhun added a net 2.9 mn MAU in Q1 to 60.9 mn, with growth decelerating. Near term, CNY timing likely matters, but longer-term shifts suggest white-collar penetration is nearing a phase peak, while blue-collar acquisition must compete with traffic-rich general platforms like Douyin/Kuashou and offline channels. QM data show Kanzhun’s vertical scale advantage remains overwhelming, with MAU far ahead and total time-share above 60% and rising.

2. Enterprise-side Billings kept recovering

Q1 revenue was RMB 2.07 bn (+7.6% YoY). Within that, B2B online recruitment services revenue was RMB 2.06 bn (+8.2% YoY). Other revenue was RMB 11.01 mn (-50% YoY), as value-added services for job seekers were optimized by offering more for free to sustain ecosystem stickiness. On this view, enterprise recruitment revenue slightly beat expectations.

Management guided Q2 revenue of RMB 2.38–2.42 bn, implying 13%–15% YoY growth, consistent with lagged demand confirmation from the shifted CNY.

(1) Company view: SMEs drove growth

Paying enterprise accounts reached 7.1 mn, up 0.3 mn QoQ, while implied ARPPU was flat YoY, indicating stronger lift from SMEs. Calculated Q1 Billings growth was 9.7%, in line with guidance. Sensor Tower shows iOS Billings up 14% YoY in Q1, and Q2-to-date up 29%, with volatility mainly from the later and longer CNY holiday.

(2) Industry view: headline pressure, mixed by segment

Across labor market indicators, early-2026 employment looked softer than a year ago, with higher unemployment, lower YoY job additions, and worse household unemployment expectations. But supply-demand mismatches vary by sector. Emerging areas like AI and blue-collar manufacturing saw some pickup, with enterprise job postings (Citic-scraped data, excluding Kanzhun) showing modest YoY growth.

3. Continued cost tightening

Q1 GPM was steady QoQ at 85.6%, up 200bps YoY. Core OP (revenue minus COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A) came in at RMB 620 mn, slightly above expectations, with a 30% OPM vs. 22.5% last year, up 750bps YoY. G&A was the main area of optimization. SBC fell 24% YoY to 9.2% of revenue, now near mature-company levels. Ex-SBC, Non-GAAP OP was RMB 800 mn, for a 39.4% OPM, down 400bps QoQ on seasonality.

Dolphin Research on 'Kanzhun'

Earnings season (latest quick takes only)

Nov 19, 2025 call notes: Kanzhun (Trans): Renewal improving, growth rebounding from the bottom

Nov 19, 2025 earnings take: Kanzhun: Fewer surprises, fundamentals intact

Aug 21, 2025 call notes: Kanzhun (Trans): Hiring demand on the platform has recovered

Aug 21, 2025 earnings take: Kanzhun: Environment remains choppy, but the business stays disciplined

Risk disclosure and disclaimer: Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosures