Abivax rebounded +24% today, but it needs to be viewed against the backdrop of the past two days—its Phase 3 data for ulcerative colitis was actually a win, with a 44-week remission rate of about 51%, far exceeding the placebo. However, a few cancer cases appeared, and safety concerns directly smashed the stock price from around 130 to just over 70.

The current rebound looks more like an oversold recovery. For those holding it, is it better to reduce positions on the rebound, or gamble that subsequent regulators will rule these cases unrelated to the drug? I would personally reduce a portion first—the efficacy side is largely realized, and all that needs to be digested over the next year is the uncertainty around safety and approval. The risk-reward ratio isn't as good as before the data release.