When NVIDIA hits $200, I'm ready to sell Put with the institutions.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) has been looking ugly recently—dropping all the way from 222.8 to just over two hundred. On the 9th and 10th, the stock price touched 199.34 and 199.92, just a breath away from breaking below 200.

But the options market tells a completely different story:

At 12:37 PM ET on 6/9, someone bought 1,959 $205 Calls expiring on 6/17, spending $744,000, betting on a short-term bounce;

An hour later, they sold 251 $205 Sell Calls expiring on 6/12, for $83,000, seemingly capping the short position.

At 15:08 before the close—2,626 $215 Calls expiring in December 2027, a single trade of $12.6 million. This price was only about 4% above the stock price at the time, with 556 DTE, averaging $48 per contract.

Buying near-the-money two-year LEAPS is textbook "using options as a stock substitute"—getting the same upside exposure with less than a quarter of the capital, buying time for the entire Rubin cycle.

Then came the most painful drop time on 6/10 ET: around 3 PM, 2,077 $175 Sell Puts expiring on 7/10 appeared, collecting $390,000 in premium, averaging $1.88.

Looking at these four trades over two days, the intention is quite clear: the long-dated near-the-money LEAPS are the core position, looking at two years; the short-term Calls are pocket change for a bounce; not panicking when it falls, but selling Puts instead—either pocketing $390k for free or averaging down the cost basis at $175. This isn't a posture of betting on a bounce, it's a posture of "adjustments can be whatever, but I won't give up the trend."

Fundamentals also provide confidence: Digitimes reported these past two days that cloud giants have booked all the 2027 long-term memory capacity contracts, and Rubin's supply is locked even before volume ramps up. Wedbush is also shouting about continued explosive demand for Blackwell.

Of course, sitting on the other side is Burry. His short position is indeed making money this week—I can't prove who's right, but at least on Wednesday's tape, the $200 Put (expiring 6/12) traded 63,000 contracts in a single day, becoming the hottest contract of the session. And among the total 3.22 million options traded that day, Calls still accounted for 56%, so shorts didn't gain a structural advantage.

I think that Sell Put is worth considering following. Sell the $175 Put expiring 7/10, placing the order near the institutional average price of $1.88. Collecting $188 per contract is the maximum profit. The maximum loss theoretically is being assigned to buy at $175, tying up $17,500 cash per contract, and continuing to lose if it keeps falling after assignment.

So before entering, I set two rules for myself: First, only sell the amount of NVIDIA I'm truly willing to take at $173 ($175 minus the premium), which for me is just 2-3 contracts. Second, set the stop-loss trigger at $199.3, the double bottom formed on 6/9 and 6/10. If it closes below that, I close the position immediately, losing one or two times the premium, and never wait for assignment.